Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq
- Thread starter Finn McCool
- Start date
Where's Vlad been for the last little bit? He's usually our best International News guy - what's the name of his Blog?
An article from Today's Zaman about the recent Turkish air strikes and land incursion into northern Iraq:
Mainly it just reiterates that air strikes on PKK targets did take place and that 300 Turkish troops raided PKK sites. But an interesting note is that the Turks informed the US only at the last minute practically, and then the US had to clear Iraqi airspace up North, and then tell the Iraqi Government that the Turkish strikes were already underway.
An article from Today's Zaman about the recent Turkish air strikes and land incursion into northern Iraq:
Mainly it just reiterates that air strikes on PKK targets did take place and that 300 Turkish troops raided PKK sites. But an interesting note is that the Turks informed the US only at the last minute practically, and then the US had to clear Iraqi airspace up North, and then tell the Iraqi Government that the Turkish strikes were already underway.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
There's been some pretty interesting developments with the PKK lately outside of Iraq:
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Of course, this is all happening right now when there's worry about Kosovo setting a precedent for Nagorno-Karabakh and the convenience of this is not lost on some:
Source:
This adds a whole other dimension to both the PKK and Kosovo issues. Basically, if Turkey goes into Northern Iraq, probably sometime closer to Spring, the PKK will attack Azerbaijan and then Azerbaijan would be given a golden opportunity to go after Nagorno-Karabakh.
There's a scenario the U.S. military had a few months back that should be of interest:
Source:
Source:
Of course, this is all happening right now when there's worry about Kosovo setting a precedent for Nagorno-Karabakh and the convenience of this is not lost on some:
Source:
This adds a whole other dimension to both the PKK and Kosovo issues. Basically, if Turkey goes into Northern Iraq, probably sometime closer to Spring, the PKK will attack Azerbaijan and then Azerbaijan would be given a golden opportunity to go after Nagorno-Karabakh.
There's a scenario the U.S. military had a few months back that should be of interest:
I know that the Azeris and the Turks are ethinically related and are allies but that's just foolish for the PKK to attack Azerbaijan. How will that help "liberate a Kurdish homeland" on Turkish soil? It won't. The only thing that operations in Azerbaijan might do is disrupt oil transport slightly. I am at a loss to explain this move by the PKK.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Yet again. They're launching new strikes:
They're ratcheting up the pressure. This is likely all intended to pave the way for a larger operation. In fact, the attacks on Kurdish villages may be more oriented at getting Kurdish civilians to evacuate prior to an invasion as opposed to attacking the PKK. It's possible Turkey will attack before the winter is over the way they're going.
They're ratcheting up the pressure. This is likely all intended to pave the way for a larger operation. In fact, the attacks on Kurdish villages may be more oriented at getting Kurdish civilians to evacuate prior to an invasion as opposed to attacking the PKK. It's possible Turkey will attack before the winter is over the way they're going.
Raptoreyes
New Member
The ability of people in those parts of the world to hold "multi generational" grudges with other groups that may have wronged them long ago is astounding!!! The color this paints upon every day decision making of major political leaders can be quite shocking.
In light of the long historical memory of people in parts of the Middle East and Balkans, you see may decisions that look downright irrational when you only take into account the last 5-10 years of history. (as opposed to the grudges that have been nursed over many generations between families, individuals and groups) This sort of strange and destructive cycle of decision making tends to plague very mountainous regions and regions where water is very scarce, over long historical time spans. (take a look at present day Appalachian mountains in the USA for but one example of this)
Add a few religions and their various competing sects that carved out their territory via conquest and add to the "shake and bake" mix of the factors I mentioned above and watch the fireworks!
Thomas Sowell(last name probably miss-spelled slightly) did a great study of the effect that the home terrain of a culture will have upon decision making and values.(The books were named "Race and Culture, Migrations and Culture, and Conquests and culture to name only 3 amoung his many books. A necessary primmer when your trying to make progress in understanding decisions that don't make sense from the perspective that many on this forum assume when evaluating the actions of other leaders.
Jared Diamond's books are also useful for evaluation but Jared tends to have an over-emphasis's on environment over culture when environment can change much much more slowly then culture. (aka Jared's overly Liberal sensibilities can get in the way when evaluating parts of the world where liberals as we know them are in extreme short supply.
{{{ In other words the leader of the PKK probably has a an old score (perhaps one older then he is to settle with some group presently in Azerbaijan) that may predate Communism's presence or even Islams presence in the middle east or the Balkans. When some decision made by a middle east/balkans leader does not make sense then dig for old conflicts that most reasonable people would have forgotten about by now.}}}
Just finished reading the War Nerds article about the Kurds. I must say his logic is rather good despite his obvious vicious nature. Perhaps wiring many of the various Kurdish splinter groups to the internet might help break up the "highland isolation" that hurts their ability to put together a cohesive fighting force. (lol my sense of humor seems to be fouled up today)
I would like to see the Kurds gain some sort of state, simply because they seem to be one of the most moderate sub-groups of Islam and would be a great counter balance to the sinister ambitions of Iran. However the lack of Sea access in all majority Kurdish areas, the "mountain hillbilly" local loyalties and more organized powers dividing them up are simply too much for them to overcome.... until most of the disunity within the Kurdish community itself is overcome. Nevertheless the United States could consider it a long term goal to smooth out the differences between many Kurdish groups and help them unify enough to make it difficult for the surrounding powers to hold on to their Kurdish majority provinces. Slowly killing off the more authoritarian groups that mingle with the larger Kurdish cultural area might be necessary first. The PKK (or Kurdish communists seem to be first on the menu atm but later on more secular and democratic groups might be eaten if the US does not do something to overcome the "local loyalty factor" in the next few years. Overcoming the isolating effects of geography however might prove to be too great a challenge for the USA.
On the otherhand looking the other way on the Kurds to be more fully absorbed by Turkey would have been nice. Too bad Turkey is becoming somewhat less fully secular then it used to be. Undermining authoritarian governments in the middle-east, is at best very very hard because "civil society" that can sometimes desolve religious, tribal, and local loyalties is hard to build up and maintain. If anybody has any better better suggestions on building up civil society bettween diffrent Kurdish regions, then consider me all ears.
Thanks again for the Articls Vlad they made my day!
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Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
A car bomb just went off inside Diyarbakir, Turkey. Four people were killed and sixty eight people, including thirty soldiers, were wounded. Yeah, this just makes things for the PKK much much worse...
Another interesting story I've come across is that it seems like the majority of Iraqi Sunnis are actually very well in favor of Turkish airstrikes in Kurdistan:
A final source of mistrust and anger in the Sunni community remains - as it has for the past 12 months - the issue of oil-rich Kirkuk province, which faces a referendum to see whether it should be incorporated into Iraqi Kurdistan. As far as Sunnis are concerned, the Kurds must not get it - under any cost. That would make the central government in Baghdad all the weaker and inspire a similar break-away for the Shi'ite community in southern Iraq.
The Sunnis have been frowning for some time, especially since the government of Iraqi Kurdistan started signing independent oil extraction contacts with foreign companies, in total disregard of the Baghdad government. To date, more than 20 contacts have been authorized, prompting Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani to call these contracts "illegal".
There is strong backing in the Sunni community for the Turkish air raids on northern Iraq (although many Iraqis might not say it). These attacks against Kurdish rebels have prompted Kurdish politicians to threaten to break away from the Maliki cabinet. The prime minister still walks the same right rope that he did throughout 2007. He still has to try to appease the regional Sunni community (Turkey included) by working towards rapprochement with Iraq's Sunnis. That is also a US request. He also has to please Iran by continuing to court - and protect - the Shi'ites. He has to please the Kurds by granting them Kirkuk. He has to please ordinary Iraqis by giving them better security. And it is quiet clear that since he came to power in 2006, he just cannot deliver on any of the above.
Another interesting story I've come across is that it seems like the majority of Iraqi Sunnis are actually very well in favor of Turkish airstrikes in Kurdistan:
A final source of mistrust and anger in the Sunni community remains - as it has for the past 12 months - the issue of oil-rich Kirkuk province, which faces a referendum to see whether it should be incorporated into Iraqi Kurdistan. As far as Sunnis are concerned, the Kurds must not get it - under any cost. That would make the central government in Baghdad all the weaker and inspire a similar break-away for the Shi'ite community in southern Iraq.
The Sunnis have been frowning for some time, especially since the government of Iraqi Kurdistan started signing independent oil extraction contacts with foreign companies, in total disregard of the Baghdad government. To date, more than 20 contacts have been authorized, prompting Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani to call these contracts "illegal".
There is strong backing in the Sunni community for the Turkish air raids on northern Iraq (although many Iraqis might not say it). These attacks against Kurdish rebels have prompted Kurdish politicians to threaten to break away from the Maliki cabinet. The prime minister still walks the same right rope that he did throughout 2007. He still has to try to appease the regional Sunni community (Turkey included) by working towards rapprochement with Iraq's Sunnis. That is also a US request. He also has to please Iran by continuing to court - and protect - the Shi'ites. He has to please the Kurds by granting them Kirkuk. He has to please ordinary Iraqis by giving them better security. And it is quiet clear that since he came to power in 2006, he just cannot deliver on any of the above.