Please clarify status of J-7MF & J-7CP projects

I do expect that China was actually building J-11s at a rate of 20-30 a year, enough to convert a regiment every year.

With enough engines, i think China can build J-10s even faster than that.

Despite the sophistication of the J-10, it should be relatively simpler to build. We don't have a cutaway of the j-10 to look at, but we still have the nearest model for a comparison, this time, from the Lavi.

The Su-27 airframe is extremely complex. Unlike earlier Russian aircraft, it does not seem like it was meant for fast mass production at all. The J-10 is still much closer to the same design principles that makes the MiG-21 fast to make. Not only does simplicity makes things easier to make, they also make things easier to maintain and repair.

As for the price going up in the years to come, not really. Perhaps the cost of upgrades may go up. But the volume of production means that with amortization, the cost per J-10 unit will go down. Making 100 FC-1s may probably end up costing more per unit than 200-300 J-10s.

As for the FC-1, I see little evidence of it being "simpler" than the J-10 to provide sufficient cost advantages. This is especially so since the FC-1 appears to be continually "upgraded" in the design board. The RD-93 itself costs nearly as much as an AL-31FNM-1, the latter much more powerful and has TVC.

I doubt that China is wise "not putting eggs on the same basket". Having multiple programs is the one thing that is not wise after all. You really need to put all your eggs in the same basket because one excellent design is always better than three mediocre ones. If you divide your development funds, you will only end up with crappy jets. A modern fighter is an expensive thing to develop and refine in all these years. If you look at Europe and the US, they are indeed putting as many eggs in as few baskets as possible. And you have to consider that China only has a fraction of the budget the US has.

Id say put your eggs in only 2 baskets is the way to go, as no single fighter can perform every role perfectly. Even the cash strapped russians are going for a heavy and light future combat aircraft.

As china paid 2.5$ billion for a j-11 liscence production contrct, i dont think they will simply halt production halfwya and lose all that money. If china is indeed capable of producing j-11s without kits, it should by all means go ahead and build the 200. Russia has already been paid in full, so they have no say in this. when more and more of j-xx start comming out, the older su-27sks and original j-11s/j-10s will be regulated to second-line units, the ones that currently operate j-8/7.

Isnt mass production a bit dated? with planes costing in the tens of millions of $ these days, its impractical to mass produce aircraft in peace time.

If you look at the current production rate of J-10 and J-11, the ratio is probably 70-75 to 15-20 per year

Click to expand...

-Tphuang

I did not realize J-10 production was already that high. Could you cite a source, please.

Nonetheless, I predict China will have a big demand for naval fighters in the next twenty year. They will want well trained squadrons ready before their carriers are completed. And when China decides on a carrier design, China will build a series of carriers, not just one.

Until I see a naval variant of the J-10 I don't believe future chinese orders will be predominantly J-10's. Also, China is committed to large orders of the FC-1 because it was designed to be an export product. Large orders lowers its production costs per plane and makes it competitively priced in the international arms market.

The J-10 is China's best fighter project to date, but it's role is limited and it doesn't have too many years before the J-12 which is expected around 2015-2020.

I would think a naval version of J-11 is much farther away from being developed than a naval version of J-10. If you are just talking about a strike aircraft like mkk, J-10B should be able to fill a similar role.

If you are talking about a STOL aircraft that can be put on a carrier, then I think it's more likely su-27kub would be purchased. Even then, you would only need about a regiment. With the greater thrust on the current engine + TVC, it should be possible for future J-10s to fly off a carrier. China has been trying out J-8 in this role recently. I don't see how J-10 can't do the same.

As for FC-1, the mass production is not going to start until 2009 after the 04 prototype change. It's very unlikely China will put in the 250 fighter order that it said it will before. I think you only need about 500 JF-17s in order for this project to work. I'm guessing Pakistan will get around 200 JF-17s, China will get around 100. Exporting 200 to other countries should be a piece of cake. China put in probably 250 million US into FC-1 and 2.5 billion US into J-10. I just don't see how anyone can think FC-1 will get more orders than J-10.

Anyhow, as for the production rate. There has been a lot of speculation on the number of J-10s that got produced last year. Generally, we can say that there are currently 2 production lines going. In normal production rate, you can crank out 2 J-10s per production lines per month. (that's where people got the rate of 50 from) In maximum production period, you can crank out 3. 2 x 3 x 12 = 72 The 2-3 production rate can be check on a lot of sites.

There has even been talk that China might raise this to 100 per year, but you would need 3 lines going to accomplish this.

In 2005, there was a stoppage in J-10 at one point, so the number of J-10s that came out did not amount to 72, but 2006 is likely going to be different with the AL-31s all coming in by the 3rd quarter.

There is not going to be any definitive proof of this at this point. A lot of this is from reading off expert posters on Chinese forums.

As for J-11, I definitely expect China to go beyond the 200 that it was licensed to produce. I'm not sure what kind of ramifications that will bring, but I think SAC and sukhoi will sort it out.

If you look at the F-15/F-16 combination for USAF, there are far more F-16s than F-15s using the same logic to my J-10/J-11 argument. The heavier fighters normally get produced in lower quantity.

Its not like an entirely new liscence must be sorted out by SAC and sukhoi. future j-11s will be contructed entirely in china, use chinese weapons, and use a chinese engine. Sukhoi almost has not part in this. China should merely ask sukhoi to extend the liscence to 300 fighters over 5 more years. As this does not require any effort on the part of sukhoi, the company shouldnt ask for more than $500 million or so.

Of course, sukhoi is still eager to entice china with more flanker upgrades, and may even extend the liscence for free if china agrees to purchase a certain upgrade.

Once upgraded j-10s enter service, do you think the original j-10s will be used as a model to design a version for export?

MIGleader said:

Id say put your eggs in only 2 baskets is the way to go, as no single fighter can perform every role perfectly. Even the cash strapped russians are going for a heavy and light future combat aircraft.

Click to expand...

No. They are going only for one aircraft, but can't decide if it is heavy or medium.

Most of the world will probably stick with one type of fighter (JSF) from now on. Sweden only made one fighter, so did France, and so did the Eurofighter.

As china paid 2.5$ billion for a j-11 liscence production contrct, i dont think they will simply halt production halfwya and lose all that money.

Click to expand...

That does not make business sense. Because I tell you, every good business knows when to quit or bail out, or call its losses.

I heard that China invested over 3 billion to develop the J-10, so that kind of pushes the J-11 out.

If china is indeed capable of producing j-11s without kits, it should by all means go ahead and build the 200. Russia has already been paid in full, so they have no say in this. when more and more of j-xx start comming out, the older su-27sks and original j-11s/j-10s will be regulated to second-line units, the ones that currently operate j-8/7.

Isnt mass production a bit dated? with planes costing in the tens of millions of $ these days, its impractical to mass produce aircraft in peace time.

Click to expand...

They should do that and build more, another hundred or two. That will still be good enough till 2010, and the PLAAF can decide if they wish to continue further from that point.

MIGleader said:

Its not like an entirely new liscence must be sorted out by SAC and sukhoi. future j-11s will be contructed entirely in china, use chinese weapons, and use a chinese engine. Sukhoi almost has not part in this. China should merely ask sukhoi to extend the liscence to 300 fighters over 5 more years. As this does not require any effort on the part of sukhoi, the company shouldnt ask for more than $500 million or so.

Of course, sukhoi is still eager to entice china with more flanker upgrades, and may even extend the liscence for free if china agrees to purchase a certain upgrade.

Once upgraded j-10s enter service, do you think the original j-10s will be used as a model to design a version for export?

Click to expand...

It actually raises an interesting question. Whether or not China still needs to ask Sukhoi for the license to build more J-11, if the airframe is changed and the avionics+weapon sets are all changed. Apparently, what certain Chinese are saying about J-11B is that it's a different design from any of the Russian flankers, so it can no only be produced but exported. I'm personally not sure, since I have never had a side by side comparison of J-11B with sk or mkk. Also, the question is what the contract says. The only noticeable change seems to be the extra hardpoints.

As for J-10, I think we can all expect that the export versions to be downgraded version of upgraded J-10s. The question is when that's going to happen.

tphuang said:

not exactly true, F-7MF is still in development really. CAC claims that F-7MF can be just as capable as FC-1. Anyhow, here is an article on MF.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

I just saw an article in “Global Security” that said the Pakistanis order for 42 more aircraft was for a whooping $800million, or roughly $19 million an aircraft (plus supplies, support equipment, etc..). Are the Pakistanis that heavily invested in the JF-17 that they are willing to pass up the J-10 for just 5 or 8 million more? I believe that the J-10 is a much more capable aircraft and has more room to grow. Pakistan has also purchased many J-7E at around 6 million. My question is why don’t they direct their limited defense funds into an aircraft like the J-7MF, with the underbelly intake and extra hard points for around 9 million plus/minus? You could say that the J-7MF is comparable to the JF-17. They are both extreme derivatives of the same Mig-21.
It’s just very interesting that the Chinese don’t seem to want to purchase the JF-17, They prefer the J-10 and have invested heavily in the, parallel, J-7MF program (design portion). Is it possible that the J-7MF is comparable to the JF-17 and costs half as much, or is it that the integration of the J-7MF is more efficient due to the commonality of parts with other J-7’s?

JF-17 is a 50:50 cost and profit sharing joint venture between Pakistan and China. And it is built according to the need of Pakistan, with a lot of input from Pakistani pilots and engineers, some of them were stationed inChina during the development phase.

JF-17 has the blood of pliots in past war, sweat of engineers and hopes of future Pakistan aviation self-sufficiency. Morever, 50% of the profit on sales to Pakistani Airforce (and to other customers) will go back to Pakistan.