PLAN Supersonic Anti-Ship Missiles

IDonT said:

In what context was this probability listed? Was the target manuevering, decoying, and shooting it down?

Besides, how are you going to shoot the sunburn if you don't know where the target is.

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I just took the probability numbers listed off this website so they are probably no good in the real world so I figure it has to be a lower figure once the shooting starts.

The PLAN commander might just blind-launch his missiles in a wide pattern at the suspected target area and hope for the best. The key is cost of replacement missiles. If the PLAN can afford the time, effort, and money, they'll launch blind.

When a obsolete Seersucker can hit Kuwait City without being seen by Patriot, AWACS, and Aegis sensors nets, one doesn't need only high tech to do the job. So speed maybe a plus but not paramount in importance.

AssassinsMace said:

When a obsolete Seersucker can hit Kuwait City without being seen by Patriot, AWACS, and Aegis sensors nets, one doesn't need only high tech to do the job. So speed maybe a plus but not paramount in importance.

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Hitting Kuwait City, any part of a city, is totatly different than hitting a warship. I'll tell you why
1.) Kuwait city is way bigger
2.) It's location is known
3.) It doesn't move.
4.) It is sorrounded by ground clutter that can block surface based radar sensors.

A ship manuevering at sea is totally different.
1.) It is smaller
2.) It's location is not known
3.) It can move about 500 miles a day
4.) Any missile that approaches it cannot hide because it has no ground clutter.

See the difference?

AssassinsMace said:

When a obsolete Seersucker can hit Kuwait City without being seen by Patriot, AWACS, and Aegis sensors nets, one doesn't need only high tech to do the job. So speed maybe a plus but not paramount in importance.

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Kuwait City isn't floating in the sea in sections and moving hundreds of miles a day. :nana:

Does China have enough missiles to cover a million square kilometers of sea by firing at coordinates? Of course not, they're going to have to send planes and ships out hundreds of kilometers away from base to spot the fleet. Those planes and ships will be destroyed. Eventually the PLAN will stick close to port to "save face" or launch suicide missions at unknown forces over water. It's going to be a turkey shoot! Can you imagine the psy ops guys talking trash at the commie Chinese? They know we can hit them, but they have trouble hitting us beyond their horizon.

IDonT said:

Totoro: I think Sea Dog can answer your question better than I can. But the rate of fire and the number of missiles the AEGIS can guide is more than 50.

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Does this mean that if more than 50 ASM are launched, they will surely defeat the system? If the PLAN can get into position to launch that many (of course this would be the hard part), then some will definitely break through -- even assuming a 100% kill rate for each AEGIS guided missile. Or am I misunderstanding something here?

Roger604 said:

Does this mean that if more than 50 ASM are launched, they will surely defeat the system? If the PLAN can get into position to launch that many (of course this would be the hard part

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"Sunburn" missiles weigh about 4,000 kg (9,000 lbs) each! Can you imagine the difficulty in launching dozens of them in a coordinated fashion? It's not a widely issued missile for the PLAN. On the other side, practically all US Navy ships can launch Harpoon and Tomahawk in concert at all times.

Roger604 said:

Does this mean that if more than 50 ASM are launched, they will surely defeat the system? If the PLAN can get into position to launch that many (of course this would be the hard part), then some will definitely break through -- even assuming a 100% kill rate for each AEGIS guided missile. Or am I misunderstanding something here?

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I'm quite sure how the Aegis works exactly, perhaps Sea Dog can enlighten us. But I know that each US warship has a layered defence.
Standard 2
ESSM
Phalanx
plus decoys.

KlubMarcus said:

"Sunburn" missiles weigh about 4,000 kg (9,000 lbs) each! Can you imagine the difficulty in launching dozens of them in a coordinated fashion? It's not a widely issued missile for the PLAN. On the other side, practically all US Navy ships can launch Harpoon and Tomahawk in concert at all times.

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China has the YJ-12, the YJ-83, the YJ-62, and the YJ-91. All are indigenous. I wouldn't put too much hope in the AEGIS, by the way, given that the PAC-3 is a failure. A couple dozen missiles will defeat it and mission kill the carrier. I'm afraid anything else is a fantasy, the performance of the PAC-3 is combat-proven reality.

Nor would I put too much hope in the US edge in radars. China will soon have AESA radar and you can bet that anything the US can do, China can definitely perform in the same league if not the same level.

That's the unfortunate side of resting ALL your hope in technological superiority. Reality repeatedly shows that your technologies aren't invicible and your technological lead can dwindle quite rapidly. Of course, believing in their invicibility is comforting.

The one thing the USN has going for it is sheer numbers. If a couple of CVBG were to confront the PLAN, they would be mission killed for certain. If four or five, it would likely be a stalemate. If seven, they would be able to repel the PLAN, even though one or two CVBG's will be mission killed.

But sheer numbers are not likely to be on US's side for long. If China feels threatened, it can and will pump out more ships and subs.

Roger604 said:

China has the YJ-12, the YJ-83, the YJ-62, and the YJ-91. All are indigenous. I wouldn't put too much hope in the AEGIS, by the way, given that the PAC-3 is a failure. A couple dozen missiles will defeat it and mission kill the carrier. I'm afraid anything else is a fantasy, the performance of the PAC-3 is combat-proven reality.

Nor would I put too much hope in the US edge in radars. China will soon have AESA radar and you can bet that anything the US can do, China can definitely perform in the same league if not the same level.

That's the unfortunate side of resting ALL your hope in technological superiority. Reality repeatedly shows that your technologies aren't invicible and your technological lead can dwindle quite rapidly. Of course, believing in their invicibility is comforting.

The one thing the USN has going for it is sheer numbers. If a couple of CVBG were to confront the PLAN, they would be mission killed for certain. If four or five, it would likely be a stalemate. If seven, they would be able to repel the PLAN, even though one or two CVBG's will be mission killed.

But sheer numbers are not likely to be on US's side for long. If China feels threatened, it can and will pump out more ships and subs.

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China has not proven at this juncture that they can build (by themselves) or sustain a modern military much less fight on "global" terms. Plus Chinese economic growth to build any military is mostly due to western trade. So far alot of modernization is due to Russian assistance or absorbed designs from other (western) sources. Even sinodefence alludes to this in many ways. The U.S is by no means invincible, but at this juncture they have the ability to pretty much eliminate any target at will. Diesel subs are not ideal in running down a carrier, and the SSN (HAN) currently in Chinese service is too noisy to be of any utility. I have no doubt however that the type 093 SSN will be much more capable than HAN. U.S. carriers can launch ASuW attacks and destroy enemy naval ships from 1500-2000Km away. Sorry, but it would be no contest. We'll see how PLAN's surface forces mature. I have no doubt they will field greater capabilities in the future. One thing China is good at is learning to adapt to newer technologies.

Roger604 said:

China has the YJ-12, the YJ-83, the YJ-62, and the YJ-91. All are indigenous. I wouldn't put too much hope in the AEGIS, by the way, given that the PAC-3 is a failure. A couple dozen missiles will defeat it and mission kill the carrier. I'm afraid anything else is a fantasy, the performance of the PAC-3 is combat-proven reality.

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That means that if the US Military wants to stop their production, then they know all the targets will be in China. And during war, China will have serious problems importing the good stuff. But US systems are license-built in other countries and they are more than happy to build more to sell back to the USA.

Nor would I put too much hope in the US edge in radars. China will soon have AESA radar and you can bet that anything the US can do, China can definitely perform in the same league if not the same level.

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Anything China can do, the US can copy faster and better. Anything China can do, the rest of the world can copy faster and better too. If you're a war factory, are you going to sell to China or the USA during war? The USA of course! Your product is more likely to get delivered and you know the US pays the big bucks. Commie Chinese on the other hand will steal during peacetime from their own allies, and you won't be sure if the delivery and payment will go through during the shooting.

That's the unfortunate side of resting ALL your hope in technological superiority. Reality repeatedly shows that your technologies aren't invicible and your technological lead can dwindle quite rapidly. Of course, believing in their invicibility is comforting.

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That's the fortunate side of knowing you have technological superiority and have foreign sources to augment our already formidable forces.

The one thing the USN has going for it is sheer numbers. If a couple of CVBG were to confront the PLAN, they would be mission killed for certain. If four or five, it would likely be a stalemate. If seven, they would be able to repel the PLAN, even though one or two CVBG's will be mission killed. But sheer numbers are not likely to be on US's side for long. If China feels threatened, it can and will pump out more ships and subs.

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That's what Japan thought, too. But somehow the USA fought on two fronts with our WW2 technolgy and economy. With America's economy today and access to all sorts of foreign resources that we can retain in a war, we're going to be even stronger! What are the communists going to do then? Launch nukes and give the USA a blank check to respond with? :roll: