joshuatree
Captain
I should clarify. I definitely meant SSKs and not SSNs nor SSBNs as nuclear subs operate best by staying out in the open and in the deep for extended periods of time. When I say the possibility of a sub pen at Fiery or Subi, I don't envision a full blown sub base with subs permanently based there. But if a SSK is forward deployed on rotation or does a period of patrols that are based from there, it means any opposing force will have to take into account the ability for China to respond with subs much quicker in the area. While the SSK is further away from friendly waters, the opposing force has less time to easily track it once it hits open deep waters. That will require an opposing force to expend more resources tracking this sub or play a more conservative deployment strategy of their own assets in those waters. Just looking at Google Earth, the deeper parts of SCS are areas immediately to the west of the Spratly Islands or directly south/southeast of the Paracels. Duncan Island with its harbor could be a place to stage a SSK with quick access to deep waters in the SCS. I believe the island already has barracks so it be even easier to host a sub crew there during forward based rotation.
As for these bases being more vulnerable to enemy attack, I think there is a difference between deploying subs there during periods of peace and simply playing the cat & mouse game vs full blown declared war. In the later, strategies can change and subs can be pulled back to bases in solid friendly waters. If we're talking about vulnerability to an undeclared first strike sneak attack, that's the inherent risk of outposts and one won't be basing all their assets there.
