The future of the CIWS systems are not more barrels or programmable ammunition but missile based like the RAM and HQ-10 or DEWs. Engagement ranges are better, better multi target capabilities and better magazine depth (debatable depending on how they calculate average ammunition expenditure per projectile engaged). I don't know why people are still obsessed with using guns with programmable ammo for AA, counter UAS and counter missile duty. The only areas where guns are clearly superior to missiles are counter artillery, cost and ambushes by small missile boats.
Guns are generally less competent at this than shorad. The PLAN certainly agrees with you on this.
DEWs however, I think are much less suitable for defending against supersonic anti-ship missiles. Against hypersonics, laser DEWs are next to useless since hypersonic missiles are designed to withstand the level of surface heating that a laser would be throwing onto it. We don't even need to talk about the kinematics.
Supersonic missiles can easily throw off the laser beam with movement, you simply cannot focus a laser beam directly onto the same surface of a moving supersonic missile. Adjust your line of sight of laser and do some quick numbers, unless the laser is so powerful (like orders of magnitude more powerful than existing lasers) that it can melt through the surface of a supersonic missile in under 2 or 3 seconds when focused on the same patch of surface, the missile would be making contact with your ship before your laser deals enough damage. Remember that many supersonic AShM fielded by China are sea-skimming, that the horizon is around 20 seconds flight away at 3m or so above sea level, and that lasers operate on line of sight. Speed of light in comms between radar and guidance of beam is fast but the resulting delay and factoring in processing time is still well into the 0.x seconds. Meaning that by the time your laser beam is moving to trace the missile target, the beam would be falling upon a different patch of surface.
Supersonic missiles can also be designed to rotate or have a better thermal protection surface layer that just needs to eat up another 500K for a few more seconds. The jury is out for laser ship defence... absolute pipedream until 1000KW lasers and near instant processing.
DEW lasers are good against drones that fly slow and are easy to burn.
PLAN, PLA, and USN lasers are all designed to be anti-drone or anti-slow moving cruise missile at absolute best. All this well within 30km of line of sight. Against even supersonic sea-skimmer missiles, this is a hopeless defence.
Firstly, we do know that:
1. On average, Chinese surface combatants have fewer (U)VLS cells per ship than their American counterparts of comparable types;
2. Chinese (U)VLS is not known to possess the capability to multi-pack short-to-medium/medium-range SAMs into individual cells (at least for now), unlike their American counterparts with the quad pack-capable RIM-162; and
3. (Though not for discussion here) The PLAN is not yet equipped with a sufficiently-large and powerful carrier-based aviation arm that can contribute significantly to allied fleet air defenses (i.e. through fighter-launched and UCAV-launched AAMs).
Hence, if SAMs are the only viable solutions for intercepting enemy supersonic and hypersonic AShMs in the naval combats of today and future - Then this does present credible problems for naval forces that either does not carry enough of them, or does not have sufficient air-defense support from allied units, or both.
Therefore, until/unless newcoming major surface warships of the PLAN see the implementation of more (U)VLS cells per ship, and/or the capability of multi-pack short-to-medium/medium-range SAMs into individual (U)VLS cells - I do wonder if the further development on the HHQ-10 could alleviate such issues, at least to a certain degree?
The idea being that the HHQ-10s would be
significantly upgraded into new variant(s), such that this variant(s) is/are
capable of intercepting enemy AShMs that are travelling at high-supersonic (Mach 3-4) and low-hypersonic (Mach 5-7) speeds, preferably with
effective interception ranges that are
similar to that of the RIM-162 (40-50 kilometers).
(For note: Mach 5 = 1.7 km/s, Mach 7 = 2.9 km/s and Mach 10 = 3.4 km/s)
However (and naturally), doing so will result in upgraded HHQ-10 missiles that are physically larger and heavier than the original HHQ-10 missiles, meaning that either:
#1 - The launcher will have to be larger and heavier in order to fit similar number of upgraded HHQ-10s (hence greater procuring, operating and maintaining costs and complexity); or
#2 - The launcher will only be able to fit smaller number of upgraded HHQ-10s with similar size and weight limitations as the launcher carrying the original HQ-10s (hence fewer missiles that are available for interception efforts).
Option #2 can be remedied by:
- Making the missile launcher modular, i.e. both original and upgraded HHQ-10s can be fitted on the same launcher; and/or
- Having two (lined along the ship axis) or three (one on the ship axis, and one for each side of ship) HHQ-10 launchers installed per ship.
Of course, doing so definitely will increase the related-costs required for having more than one HHQ-10 launchers per ship.
However, think about this: With the growing proliferation and deployment of supersonic and hypersonic AShMs across major navies around the world today, which generally have greater probability of one-hit mission-kill, if not one-hit ship-kill any warships that isn't a flatdeck today than previous-gen AShMs; alongside the possibility of enemy AShMs (and/or LACMs) being nuclear-tipped -
Maybe no cost can ever be too high, especially when everything could be at stake...