MwRYum
Major
Why couldn't this be disinformation campaign, not to convince foreign progessional intelligence services that carrier related construction is really something else, but to simply saturate public domain with confusion, doubt and uncertainty?
Chinese had a history of such elaborate but not too convincing disinformation, remember the casino that would be Liaoning?
Nobody seriously believe it'd be turn into casino for real (Macau's waters are just too shallow for that thing in the first place), the better informed all believe the Chinese would try to make a working carrier out of it, but most put their bets on the Chinese got bogged down on some insurmountable snags here and there, and it'll take them a very long time to get it done.
And the years went by seems to prove them right, until it got the PLAN standard grey paint job on the hull, then the frantic work till Aug 2011...yet all the while outsiders and "experts" such as Pinkov keep telling the world it's just a nice showpiece that can't practically work as a real carrier, blah-blah-blah.
As to when the first Made-In-China carrier begin to build, and where...well there're plenty of theories, though the list of candidates can be shorten via satellite imaging into observing for shipyards with the proper drydocks, on-site data gathering and uploading of photo data is still a must, and the internet policing in China is keeping a close eye on this.