PLAN Anti-ship/surface missiles
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
So from the higher resolution photos it looks like YJ-17 is actual missile displayed.
Whereas YJ-20, YJ-21 are mockups. YJ-15 is a pretty crappy mockup at that. YJ-19 also appears to be a mockup albeit more detailed mockup than YJ-15.
It's the same trend with the UADFs. The higher tier weapons in the parade are actual equipment whereas the lower tier ones are mockups in the parade. YJ-15 is not remotely comparable to YJ-17 in technical difficulty but the YJ-15 gets to show up as a mockup whereas the ship launched, anti-ship HGV gets to make an actual appearance.
Whereas YJ-20, YJ-21 are mockups. YJ-15 is a pretty crappy mockup at that. YJ-19 also appears to be a mockup albeit more detailed mockup than YJ-15.
It's the same trend with the UADFs. The higher tier weapons in the parade are actual equipment whereas the lower tier ones are mockups in the parade. YJ-15 is not remotely comparable to YJ-17 in technical difficulty but the YJ-15 gets to show up as a mockup whereas the ship launched, anti-ship HGV gets to make an actual appearance.
What makes you think YJ-17 is an "actual missile" versus the other ones?
They all look like varying degrees of mockups to me.
Probably because its booster section and the bottom portion are relatively detailed. But I agree though, pretty sure they're all just mockups.
Hypersonic weapons are all models and have undergone declassification processing.
How to get a usable aerodynamic configuration for hypersonic missiles is extremely challenging, but once the results are achieved, reverse engineering and replication become much easier.
Precisely because of the varying degrees of mockups. If we make the assumptions that YJ-20 and YJ-21 are both mockups. They can be said to represent a basic mockup level with minimal details. However, this is tricky on ALBM and BMs in general because they are lacking in those finer details regardless.
YJ-15 is the most obvious candidate for mockup. It can be said as a basic level mockup as well for a missile that would otherwise expose details like rocket motor, panels, screws even at this resolution we are getting.
YJ-17 has all the screws, panels and rocket motor details that if it is a mockup, would represent as yet an unprecedented level when we have at least two sub levels of mockup "detail". These are the reasons I think it's not a mockup. If it is, why are the mockup levels at three distinctly inconsistent levels. I think at most, it's just two levels of mockup detail - very scarce or with a few token details.
Now compare with the UADFs. We are given some general rumours that the two CCAs (Types C and E? these type designations have lost consistency by now) are mockups but they represent medium level. For both, you can see control surfaces details and some panels. For the two heavy UADFs they are claimed by reputable sources to be actual aircraft shown. Sensors, landing gears, wiring, panels, engines, all contribute to this.
Coming back to the missiles. The YJ-20 and YJ-21 mockups show surface waviness, commensurate with mockups. YJ-15's rocket motor is not detailed, perhaps for good reason. So my question was to ask us why YJ-17, being a more "high tier" weapon than YJ-15 is given the chance to reveal the actual missile. Assuming I'm correct. My theory is the reason is the same as that for the UADFs vs CCAs (actual presented vs mockups shown).
I think it's a messaging attempt. If these high tier ones are showing real, the lower, easier stuff are also ready. It's a meta-messaing. We can't ignore the dimension of deterrence here. The audiences aren't just domestic ones (there is intention to achieve some things with the domestic commoner). There is intention to deliver some goodies to the military enthusiast who is pro-China. The intended message to intelligence and adversarial militaries is this is ready, probably been ready for a while. We're not necessarily showing the best stuff or all the stuff. Don't miscalculate and fall under the trap of doubting these are real. We'll show the higher end ones and give those away. Lower end equipment is much less worth doubting and not showing further details is simply not giving away any more than necessary in getting the message across clearly. The Chinese truly believe in the whole "the best way to win wars is by not fighting". This doesn't involve not having the best hand in a showdown. It is to get the other guy to fold before the showdown. It's a step above proving you have the absolute nuts and in real terms, avoids unnecessary loss. If USA wants to fight, we both suffer but China wins. Better to win without suffering. Showing some stuff can cool the warhawks down in the US. If they want to chase an arms race, great, USA dies faster.
It's at this point that we ought to remember that they might have selected the 10 things out of many more to display. The selected displays are done so with intention as well. It's too fanciful to speculate there is so much more and better stuff so let's not do that now but it's worth considering why they are comfortable revealing anything with these levels of capability and tech.
I think you're reading a bit too much into it, and the simplest answer is just that some of them have slightly more detailed mockups than others.
It would be a bit odd for them to choose one specific missile to show a "real" missile down the parade, and not to mention the risks of driving a "real" missile down the parade (even if we assume it was not filled with a warhead and propellant etc)
Do you think the DF-17 paraded is the actual missile or a mockup? The larger missiles are paraded in the form of canisters/launchers only. The DF-17 is a departure from this but doesn't mean the paraded item is not a mockup either.
Ultimately it doesn't matter whether they paraded a mockup or missile. The missiles are indeed almost exclusively if not actually exclusively showing a mockup or just the canister/launcher.
Drones are a mixture of mockup and actual. My point about showing some rather than just going with all mockups still remains. Why not just go with all mockups then. Why bother showing those two actual UADFs?
I believe the missiles are all mockups. I see no compelling explanation or way to entertain the idea that for some reason YJ-17 is real, when the simplest explanation is that it's just some mockups were more detailed than others.
If we have indicators from the usual grapevine that the YJ-17 is real for some reason, then I'd be willing to entertain it, but for now the simplest explanation is the most logical.
The UADFs, GJ-21 and GJ-2 are likely real. That's not a huge controversy; in the past in 2019 they showed a real GJ-2 (and likely real WZ-8s) as well. As for why bother showing some real UCAVs and not others, who knows, it might be because they happen to have some on hand that they're happy to show them in real form rather than commission a mockup.
