PLAAF order of battle around 2009

Clausewitz said:

I agree with the above comments however I think that J10 will go through further development in the upcoming few years. There is no logic in producing 200-300 base model as there is a continous development in the avionics and armament area so there must be some upgrade latest around 2009.

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What gave you the impression that the 300 J-10 before 2010 will all be the same? J-10 has been modifying continuously. You can imagine there will always be slight improvements with each new batch of J-10 coming out. One major area of improvement would be the cockpit as seen in the recent JF-17 picture. I'm sure the control software and FBW software is also continuously been updated. The radar is probably updated, since it had to add support for PL-12 and such. Of course, there was that discovery that Deino made a while back. I can't remember what it was exactly.

I still think that the weakest area is the BVR capability for the Chinese fighters although the newest radars can provide enough signal processing and different modes to manage even a high ECM environment but the missiles are still inferior. AA12 addler has no proven track record and the R27 in my view is worth precious nothing (today China has more R27 missiles than R77 on stock). By 2009 they should acquire indigenious missile on large scale and must commission an upgrade model for the AA12-R77. We must see that the AMRAAM latest models are far superior than the earliest models one and a half decades ago...without proper missiles the Chinese fighters can pray for dogfight opportunities, which might happen in a few cases but that is not at all reassuring.

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China's indigenous fighters including the fully indigenous J-11B do not use Russian missiles. They use PL-12 and PL-8B. The performance of PL-12 is not known for sure, but it is probably around the area of AIM-120B. As for ECM, it is said that the indigenous EW suite is better than the ones on su-27/30. How that compares to the west, I'm not sure. It's been mentionned that China built it to a comparable level to M2K5.

It is probable that the J-11B may be attempting to be backward compatible with R-73s, R-27s and R-77s in addition to using Chinese missles. That may hold up the project a bit more.

Personally I think the russians still have alot to offer in the way of technology that china currently dosent possess.

There are a few reports circulating the China is interested in aquiring the SU-35. This would be a good addition to the PLAAF. Russia is also putting together their first operational squad of SU-34. The flanker is a great multi-role and is excellent platform. Maybe the PLAAF should get the SU-34 as well.

Also, there are reports that china has continued rolling out the SU-27/J-11 after a pause... not sure why they stopped.

Australia have expressed concerns that the flanker can beat the Joint strike fighter.

All the variations of flanker are similar in some form, therefore it is not a headache to maintain the different types of flanker...

Yes... I think china will continue to produce and procure more modern and capable flankers.

I don't see how any Flanker from China could reach Australia, and Australia seems intent in being neutral with any China related conflict.

I do agree that the Su-35 still has something to offer to China. My personal belief is that extreme self reliance by itself could lead to stagnation. Having considerable foreign input is great for your creative and technological soul. These planes can serve as a standard for domestic manufacturers to match and it is a good way to keep them on their toes.

But my personal beliefs means zilch to the Chinese leadership. China isn't happy dealing with Sukhoi, and I am also left with the impression that neither does the many Russian subcontractors that supply Sukhoi. Salyut ijn my opinion, doesn't seem to be happy supplying engines to Sukhoi which in turns supply them to China. Sukhoi is acting like a middleman creaming on margins and I suspect that despite payments made by China to Sukhoi, Sukhoi isn't paying its suppliers in time. I believe Sukhoi is hard up in funds financing PAK-FA, and it already went into court battle with the KnAAPO factory over the MKK contract proceeds. The result leads to suppliers withholding their supplies to Sukhoi, and that holds up J-11 production and has effects on the spare parts pool supply on the operational J-11s.

The fact that China is going directly to the contractor making the OLS-31E tells me a lot. Used to be all these parts, components and avionics are packaged into kits, which is then supplied to China to make the J-11s. The fact that China is sourcing the parts directly tells you they just want to bypass the entire kit process, and the Russian contractors are more than happy to oblige. Similarly, China would probably source engines directly from Salyut or UFA. One of the reasons why Salyut appears to be happy with the AL-31FN purchases for the J-10 is because these engines are dealt directly to the end customer, not to a middle man layer.

Regardless of the present benefits of the Su-35 or even the Su-30MK3, it probably isn't going to overcome China's negative impression of Sukhoi as a reliable partner and supplier unless Sukhoi can reverse that image. Which makes a complete platform buy unlikely. Maybe China will continue to buy components to fill gaps in their own technologies, but they won't buy a complete aircraft from Sukhoi again, unless Sukhoi does something. Besides, if there is going to be a buy, I would think that the Su-33 and Su-34 would be higher in the list now than the Su-35.

I think the JSF article recently was just complete bs by someone who doesn't want Australia to buy the plane. Don't take it too seriously. A person working on F-22 recently said that as far as he know, all the partner countries are getting the non-downgraded version.

Also, sukhoi's past dealing with China probably did leave a really bad impression. I read that the Russians were really slow with the parts to Malaysia and Indonesia. China probably paid more to get the parts delivered earlier, but they are probably lower quality like what we've seen with the recent 956EM and 636M orders. Also, it didn't help Sukhoi a lot when they handed over the assembly line to SAC. Let's just say the quality of line was quite below par even for Chinese.

Also, it apears to me that Sukhoi could be like Antonov in the future for China. It will be a bureau that provides assistance in terms of aerodynamic data or other things to SAC for money. Also, it could pull something like the recent An-70 situation. It's clear that su-33 is looked at heavily by the Chinese. What we might see is Sukhoi working with SAC to come up with a design that satisfies with plaaf. I would think it would cost plaaf quite a bit, but SAC has never been shy about spending plaaf's money. Basically, the Russians could assist with improved airframe for Chinese flankers and then, you would want to equip the flankers with Chines avionics and weapons hopefully. One thing that has puzzled me recently is the FBW and control software in general on flankers. I wonder if it still uses the Russian ones or if China has managed to develop its own FBW software for flankers.

also, I want to point out that although su-35bm does sound very impressive right now. It's electronics probably would not sound as impressive when it will be available for delivery by 2010 or something like that. I'm guessing it will just be more of these buy specific components things. From the recent purchase of OLS-31E and AL-31FN, I'm guessing there is no subcomponent in the Russian industry that's not cleared for export to China. They might be downgraded export versions, but still the best the Russians have to offer to the outside.