PLAAF order of battle around 2009

C

Clausewitz

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I think today we have really interesting developments regarding the Chinese army, especially if we consider the substantial enhancement of the air force. However if I try to identify main trends I can see only the following for sure:
- system integration is going well, I think we can just forget that any 5ft generation Sukhoy would enter into Chinese service. China will work on ingenious projects like J-12...
- China invests heavily into unmanned aircraft technologies, which will clearly evolve into a basic tool in any future high threat environment.
- development of crew is equally important (they seem to develop if not in paralel but still in a more conceptual way their pilots and the org structure is also shaping well...

However certain emphasis is still not clear in their development...
- fighter bombers vs bombers: the largest Chinese bomber at present is the JH-7, which is no better than a SU-24D fencer...If China only focuses on solving the Taiwan crisis then maybe this is enough but in case they would really like a force projection in blue-water areas then true bombers should be considered (this would mean that they would like to evolve to be a super-power...)
- size of the ideal fighter: what is the right size for a 5th generation fighter. They have some experience in the large two-engine J-11/SU-30 family, but as well they could consider the latest examples F-35, which is substantially smaller than a J-11 or an F-22 raptor.

Question is that can China finance development of two 5th generation plane in the next five years (not to speak about commisssioning them)??? At the same time how to develop the bomber fleet? Would they need a large maritime bomber, which would cover large portion of the nerby seas with hypersonic ASh missiles (TU-22m3 ???) or a new stealthy model, which could be an ideal platform for cruse missiles? I have not mentioned the future of helicopters, AWACS fleet, freighter and tanker planes.

What do you expect (please, spare me with wishful thinking)???
 
S

Su-34

New Member
Clausewitz said:
I think today we have really interesting developments regarding the Chinese army, especially if we consider the substantial enhancement of the air force. However if I try to identify main trends I can see only the following for sure:
- system integration is going well, I think we can just forget that any 5ft generation Sukhoy would enter into Chinese service. China will work on ingenious projects like J-12...
- China invests heavily into unmanned aircraft technologies, which will clearly evolve into a basic tool in any future high threat environment.
- development of crew is equally important (they seem to develop if not in paralel but still in a more conceptual way their pilots and the org structure is also shaping well...

However certain emphasis is still not clear in their development...
- fighter bombers vs bombers: the largest Chinese bomber at present is the JH-7, which is no better than a SU-24D fencer...If China only focuses on solving the Taiwan crisis then maybe this is enough but in case they would really like a force projection in blue-water areas then true bombers should be considered (this would mean that they would like to evolve to be a super-power...)
- size of the ideal fighter: what is the right size for a 5th generation fighter. They have some experience in the large two-engine J-11/SU-30 family, but as well they could consider the latest examples F-35, which is substantially smaller than a J-11 or an F-22 raptor.

Question is that can China finance development of two 5th generation plane in the next five years (not to speak about commisssioning them)??? At the same time how to develop the bomber fleet? Would they need a large maritime bomber, which would cover large portion of the nerby seas with hypersonic ASh missiles (TU-22m3 ???) or a new stealthy model, which could be an ideal platform for cruse missiles? I have not mentioned the future of helicopters, AWACS fleet, freighter and tanker planes.

What do you expect (please, spare me with wishful thinking)???
Click to expand...

By 2009, PLAAF will most likely have 100 J-10A/Bs, 200+ Su-27s/J-11s, 100+ Su-30s, 120+ JH-7/7As, 100+ H-6Ds and possibly around 50 FC-1s. 50 J-10s, 30 Su-30s and 150 J-11s are enough to fight against Taiwanese Air Force
 
tphuang

tphuang

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hmm, more like around 300+ J-10s, 300 su-27/J-11, 100 su-30, 150 JH-7.

JH-7 is just the current fighter-bomber platform. If anything, it looks like China will have a fighter-bomber platform based on J-10 or J-11 in the future, which would be far more manuverable. But yeah, as of now, JH-7A does a good job.

There will most likely be 2 5th generation fighters in China, because both SAC and CAC will try to develop something.

Something like the backfire might not be needed anymore. If anything, China is trying to get something similar to su-34. Helicopter industry seems to be doing well with the cooperation with Eurocopter. AWACS fleet is getting bigger and bigger. They said they wanted to develop something similar to IL-76, but we will see when that comes out.
 
DPRKPTboat

DPRKPTboat

Junior Member
tphuang said:
hmm, more like around 300+ J-10s, 300 su-27/J-11, 100 su-30, 150 JH-7.

JH-7 is just the current fighter-bomber platform. If anything, it looks like China will have a fighter-bomber platform based on J-10 or J-11 in the future, which would be far more manuverable. But yeah, as of now, JH-7A does a good job.

There will most likely be 2 5th generation fighters in China, because both SAC and CAC will try to develop something.

Something like the backfire might not be needed anymore. If anything, China is trying to get something similar to su-34. Helicopter industry seems to be doing well with the cooperation with Eurocopter. AWACS fleet is getting bigger and bigger. They said they wanted to develop something similar to IL-76, but we will see when that comes out.
Click to expand...

2009 sounds a bit to soon for all that. That will probably happen in 2015 or maybe even later.
I think by 2009, the PLAAF will have at least 150 J-10s, 200 Su-27/J-11, 150 Su-30, 50 Fc-1s and 30 Tu-22s. I think the Backfire will still be important to China, since I doubt Russia will agree to sell them Su-34s. I think the JH-7 will have been scrapped by then - it is poorly designed and lacks engine power. The ones currently in Service barely work at all. China will probably have begun to test an alternative, or continue to upgrade its Q-5 fleet. The Backfire will gradually replace the H-6, and China may build an indigenous version.
 
V

Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
I think by 2009, the PLAAF will have at least 150 J-10s, 200 Su-27/J-11, 150 Su-30, 50 Fc-1s and 30 Tu-22s.
Click to expand...

Why does everyone seem to think they'll have so few FC-1s? They ordered 200 and it will probably start production this year or next. By 2009 I'd expect at least 100 if they don't get all 200 by then.

The J-10 numbers are probably close, though I expect it to be only J-10A. It would appear China is shifting away from the old method they had of training pilots and actually having training aircraft seperate from trainer-variants of aircraft like in the West. So I think that means They'll follow a similar system to the U.S. with a J-10A/B then J-10C/D.

As I recall China laready has about 200 J-11s/Su-27s so I'd expect them to have 300 or more. The Su-30 numbers are probably off, they may actually be about the same as J-11.

I doubt that China will end up springing for the Backfire. They don't need to buy a new bomber. One they build would undoubtedly be better than one bought. Tu-22 has no stealth and so it would be kind of silly for them to buy a bomber that is less stealthy than their fighters. The Tu-22M3 or Su-34 would only give them bout 800 miles of eztra space, assuming they had the aircraft made compatable with their LACM project. However, I think by 2010 China should have a 3,000 kilometer-range LACM and perhaps even a long-range or intermediate range bomber. I think China would be capable of making a bomber that can go 1,000+ miles further than the H-6, which would make it better than Tu-22 and Su-34, and giving it stealth capability.

No bomber from russia really appears to be a suitable substitute for the H-6 right now. I think China's better of building its own.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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I've posted in many places on the current number of J-10 and production rate of J-10 currently. IMO, there will be at least 300 if not more. Crobato has mentionned this in the past, that the Russians said that China will build 1200 J-10 over its lifetime. They got this info, because China asked them to provide engines for J-10. Yes, there are both J-10A and B variants right now.

As for su-34, they are not up to sale, but su-32FN is the export variant. One of the kanwa article even mentionned that the Russians said the Chinese are not interested in backfire right now. JH-7 is not that bad. In fact, it's currently the platform of choice for precision strikes and ground attack. Although, this role will probably be given to a multi-role version of J-10B and/or a su-34 like J-11 in the future.

As for FC-1, China probably will only order FC-1 if no one else wants to purchase it. I see FC-1 as MBT-2000/Type 90II.
 
crobato

crobato

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I prefer to use a 2010 figure, because that is a better round up.

My estimate is about 350 to 400 Flankers, of which 100 are Su-30s, 200 are J-11s, and about 50 Russian made Su-27s. However, a number of the original Su-27s may already be in semi retirment. Around 24 to 30 J-11s are made each year. If China decides to procure some Su-30, -33, -34, and -35, numbers may go higher.

I would go with 300 J-10s, with at least 50 coming into service every year.

It might be optimistic to see the FC-1 go into serial production in 2008, and China may take the opportunity to fly by some of the planes over the Beijing Olympics. I say about 100 to 150 by 2010 may be made, though some of them will go to the PAF.

50-60 bombers will be added each year to the PLAAF/PLANAF, but that mix is decided between the H-6H, H-6M and JH-7A. The same factory is producing all three. That may be around 200 bombers added to the 3 current H-6H, 1 current H-6M and 4 JH-7/-7A regiments, which is probably close to 400 bombers. These bombers will convert and retire all H-6 models, including H-6D, and Q-5 models.

Numbers of Q-5s, J-7s and J-8IIs will dwindle despite limited production of J-7G and J-8F. J-7G production may solely be for export only. Over 120 J-8E and JZ-8 may be retired, along with older J-8B airframes. J-8B/D/H stocks will be upgraded to the -F standard of radar and avionics. Possibly 300-400 planes will retain service.

Don't think China will purchase Backfire or Blackjack. Su-34 purchase is possible but not a high probability. Right now an Su-33UB purchase has the highest possibility among probable Sukhoi importation.
 
W

WEN?

New Member
if the varyag is finished then we will see more su-33 maybe an extra 24 to make up the squadron. i think that bombers will countinue to devolp but we will not see heavy bobmers for a while. you need your fighters to survive and be good if you want your bombers to stand a chance. also how many WZ-9 do you think we will have by then opr the improved varient??
 
A

adeptitus

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I think ~300 x J-10's by 2010 is not impossible. The Russians reported selling 2 batches of engines, ~50 in the first and ~250 in the second, plus the PRC could import more between now and 2010. Assuming production rate of 3 aircraft per month from 2003 to 2010, that's 3*12*8 = 288 planes.

Given China's military industrial complex's capability, and imported power plants from Russia, I think assemblying 3 fighters/month is not THAT hard.

The only question is are they doing it. If the PLAAF consider the J-10A to be a mature platform and want to mass produce it, they'd get their ~300 planes. But if they feel that it's not mature and only want to produce limited batch (50-100?) while developing something better (C/D vairant?), then the production figures would be questionable.

Internet sources and defense publications often give conflicting info on the J-10. In one posting on the CMF, someone claimed (unverified) that in Feb 2005 Kanwa issue, the PLAAF said they were not happy with J-10's performance and high-cost. Then in another article the poster cited different Kanwa report:
.. At present, the second production line is under construction. 132 Factory plans to attain an annual output of 50 J10A fighters after the production of the fighter turns onto the regular track. The Air Force has expressed that they are satisfied with the performance of the J10A fighters currently in service. ...
 
C

Clausewitz

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I agree with the above comments however I think that J10 will go through further development in the upcoming few years. There is no logic in producing 200-300 base model as there is a continous development in the avionics and armament area so there must be some upgrade latest around 2009.

I still think that the weakest area is the BVR capability for the Chinese fighters although the newest radars can provide enough signal processing and different modes to manage even a high ECM environment but the missiles are still inferior. AA12 addler has no proven track record and the R27 in my view is worth precious nothing (today China has more R27 missiles than R77 on stock). By 2009 they should acquire indigenious missile on large scale and must commission an upgrade model for the AA12-R77. We must see that the AMRAAM latest models are far superior than the earliest models one and a half decades ago...without proper missiles the Chinese fighters can pray for dogfight opportunities, which might happen in a few cases but that is not at all reassuring.
 
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