PLAAF JZ8F first picture

goldenpanda

Banned Idiot
I was just going to ask whether j-7g will be produced in more numbers. I guess you answered it. Not sure I like JF-17 very much considering everything people have pointed out. Any chance of middle eastern countries wanting it? They seem to like any association with muslim Pakistan.

I hope PLA and CAC guys don't burn out the way they're training/working. The frenzy seems overdone to me. Keep people sharp, but save some room for war emergency.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Personally I'm predicting around 24 to 32 J-11Bs a year. 20 to 24 JH-7As if they're not making H-6s of the same number, otherwise, 40 to 50 JH-7As. J-10s going up from 24 or 25 to 50 a year max. Last year they still produced 32 J-7Gs, and they have been running around the same number every year since the type started. However, the number of J-7G entering PLAAF is less than the production quota, because of planes that were being exported. J-8F I expect around 32 a year roughly. JF-17 may probably ramp up to 32 a year. 32 appears to be the magic number of most batch quotas.

I doubt that they would shut down J-7G production entirely. They will continue to produce some for export and whatever they build in excess of that, goes to the PLAAF as attritional replacement. Seems to me the plane that is going down mostly have been J-7s.

I do agree that the J-8F will hold bigger radar over the JF-17, and it is faster. Radar signature is however bigger on the J-8F, and I don't believe the J-8F have a meaningful range advantage over the JF-17, due to the way two turbojets would consume fuel vs. a single turbofan.

Truly we don't know how many JF-17 the PLAAF wants, if any. JF-17 is thus, always the wild factor in predicting PLAAF future trends.
 

beijingcar

New Member
I was told by someone inside, the J7G will stop be produced once export #'s are filled, But the source is from another company whichin the First Aero Group Companies, so he may be wrong. A lots other countries are looking at JF17 or even J10 to buy, not J7G anymore, So I think the export market for this jet is drying out fast. As for JF17, I am sure the PLAAF will field some into its services since all these changes on this jet have made it that much better. But overall, I think the JF17 run counter to the way PLAAF should ( and is ) going in the future. crobato and other knows a lot more than me on how good or bad a jet can be, but I think the biggest failling for the JF17 is her size, if you cram in too many capabilities into this jet, range suffers( too much added weight) and it will become too expensive to OP. Then the better buy will be J10. But if JF17 is built cheap and simple, then its capabilities will be too limited to be much of use in modern airwars. Crobato and others may have a different point of view and I am listening.
As for the H6 production, By the look of the new engine intake and all the needed changes inside for it to carry 6 CM and flight control changes, I would think it will be built new, not refitable to the older airframes, so, XAC will be very busy for longtime to come.
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
I think for the Russians, this began to change with the MiG-29 and Su-27. Design of planes do reflect doctrine, and by improving the onboard sensors of the aircraft, they have shifted autonomy from ground to pilot. Although it is too late when the Soviet Union ended.

Hi Crobato,

I found this article a while back that gave a more detailed description to the early MiG-29's sensor package limitations:

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"Our navigation system is unreliable without TACAN updates and is not very accurate (I’d prefer to call it an estimation system). It relies on triangulation from three TACAN stations, and if you lose one, you effectively lose the system. We can only enter three fixed waypoints, which is inadequate. We also can’t display our ‘Bullseye’ (known navigation datum, selected randomly for security). For communications we have only one VHF/UHF radio.

"The radar is at least a generation behind the AN/APG-65, and is not line-repairable. If we have a radar problem, the aircraft goes back into the hangar. The radar has a poor display, giving poor situational awareness, and this is compounded by the cockpit ergonomics. The radar has reliability problems and lookdown/shootdown problems. There is poor discrimination between targets flying in formation, and we can’t lock onto the target in trail, only onto the lead. We have only the most limited autonomous operating capability.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
I was told by someone inside, the J7G will stop be produced once export #'s are filled, But the source is from another company whichin the First Aero Group Companies, so he may be wrong. A lots other countries are looking at JF17 or even J10 to buy, not J7G anymore, So I think the export market for this jet is drying out fast. As for JF17, I am sure the PLAAF will field some into its services since all these changes on this jet have made it that much better. But overall, I think the JF17 run counter to the way PLAAF should ( and is ) going in the future. crobato and other knows a lot more than me on how good or bad a jet can be, but I think the biggest failling for the JF17 is her size, if you cram in too many capabilities into this jet, range suffers( too much added weight) and it will become too expensive to OP. Then the better buy will be J10. But if JF17 is built cheap and simple, then its capabilities will be too limited to be much of use in modern airwars. Crobato and others may have a different point of view and I am listening.
As for the H6 production, By the look of the new engine intake and all the needed changes inside for it to carry 6 CM and flight control changes, I would think it will be built new, not refitable to the older airframes, so, XAC will be very busy for longtime to come.


The airframe "size" of the JF-17 is not as limited as you think. The plane is actually slightly longer than an F-16. Weight is no longer related to size. The F-35 is only a foot longer than the JF-17 and weighs six tons more.

Space is not the issue, as the engine power. A much more powerful plane can carry more weight and suffers less performance penalties. FC-1's relatively low power means just that. Look at the Gripen, the next version would make it weigh over 7,000kg empty, and so needed an upgrade of the engine to the GE F414 (used by the Super Hornet).

Fortunately Klimov/MiG does have an upgrade plan for the RD-33, which can extend all the way up to 10,000kg. Then of course, there is a Chinese alternative as well. Avionics are also getting lighter as time goes by due to electronics miniturization.

You already said correctly that the JF-17 is running counter to PLAAF future trends, which is very much like with the rest of the world---growing bigger and heavier. I think that's the greatest barrier for the JF-17's acceptance into the PLAAF. But this trend is going to run into a brickwall sooner or later. Technology and size cannot replace numbers and availability fully. 100 big fighters are not going to do the job of three hundred small fighters without pilots being exhausted and planes physically worn out to the ground. Fewer planes means less planes to occupy the battlespace and less planes to be available for missions of opportunity. When attrited, having smaller numbers mean a greater impact to your force. Numbers will always count no matter what.

In my view, a plane like the JF-17 can be served greatly with networking, like the Gripen. Numbers, especially when organized properly, can be very effective. This is not to say bigger planes don't have their place, they do. Large jets like Flankers can serve as eyes and sensors for smaller planes, and these smaller planes act as tactical backups to the bigger jets.

Its not necessary that you have to make a small jet do everything, and so have everything crammed into a little airframe. Small jets do better when it comes to specialization, while with bigger jets, you're looking more into generalization or jack of all trades. With specialization, you only put what is necessary for the design role into the aircraft. Having said that, the FC-1 is still clearly intended as multirole, but its not like a wide area defense interceptor and air superiority platform or major strike bomber. The fact its replacing A-5 units in the PAF, indicates a tactical support role. The fact that the PLAAF has other designs that can undertake other sordid tasks more suited for heavy fighters, puts less weight on its small fighter requirements.
 

Scratch

Captain
A general question about chinese aircraft. I put it here because we here had the argument how to escape missiles, where my question is related to.

How do chinese designed aircraft dispens their decoys?

I think US made ones just "drop" them. Not sure about european ones honestly. In contrast Fulcrums and Flankers shoot them somewhat forward.
Back in my conscription time I was told that modern AAMs are able to ID decoys as such if they suddenly get very slow after being released.
I was told that because of that russian fighters have an advantage here in fooling enemy missiles because for at least a very short time the decoys (at least the flares) move forward at a high speed.
That's of course only one factor among several, but in this particular area, the russian thought further ... ?

So, how do the chinese aircraft do that? And are there vids of them releasing flares.
And if someone knows vids of ECDs releasing flares, I'd be interested as well.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
The problem when you release flares in front of your aircraft is that missiles will tend to lead target them, and the missile will still end up right in front of you. If you have to shoot the flare ahead, you would have to make a hard break regardless.

I have not seen a Chinese aircraft drop flares, other than fireworks in air shows, so I can't say much whether they would follow the Western or the Russian practice.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
A general question about chinese aircraft. I put it here because we here had the argument how to escape missiles, where my question is related to.

How do chinese designed aircraft dispens their decoys?

I think US made ones just "drop" them. Not sure about european ones honestly. In contrast Fulcrums and Flankers shoot them somewhat forward.
Back in my conscription time I was told that modern AAMs are able to ID decoys as such if they suddenly get very slow after being released.
I was told that because of that russian fighters have an advantage here in fooling enemy missiles because for at least a very short time the decoys (at least the flares) move forward at a high speed.
That's of course only one factor among several, but in this particular area, the russian thought further ... ?

So, how do the chinese aircraft do that? And are there vids of them releasing flares.
And if someone knows vids of ECDs releasing flares, I'd be interested as well.
I'm not sure exactly. Just remember reading an article on JF-17 avionics that mentionned that they use extremely accurate processing of information from RWR and MAWs to find out where the missiles are coming from and release flare at the right time (and maybe location?)
 
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