Plaaf 2020

So far we have seen production rate of j10 at around 30 or so per year. (batches of 36 taking little over a year to complete).
We have also seen roughly 24 j11s produced per year, as well as 24 jh7a produced per year.
As there arent any q5s left in planaf, and over a 100 left in plaaf, i would guess most of jh7a will go to plaaf. Also, most j10s will go to plaaf, perhaps just a single regiment will go to planaf to replace the last j7 regiment left there.
I would think at least 2 regiments worth of j11s would go to planaf though, to replace the older j8s.
I would also think at least half of produced h6k would go to plaaf for cruise missile truck purposes.

One has to keep in mind that j7g and j8f have been manufactured literally less than 10 years ago. They are bound to have at least 10 more years in them, at the rate chinese pilots are flying.

All that being said, the composition of plaaf (planaf not withstanding) in late 2020. could be:

210 j10a
210 j10b
240 j11b
100 j11a
75 su30mkk
240 jh7a
96 j7g
48 j7e
72 j8f

60 h6k
14 ? h6m
28 h6h

+ 1 regiment of 36 J-20
+ 1 regiment of 36 J-10C

8 years till 2020.
+1 of J-10/J-11/JH-7 regiment per year (simplicity for argument sake)

240 J-10
192 J-11
192 JH-7

Your overall fleet would look something like this
450 J-10 (All variants)
580 Flankers (All variants)
430 JH-7 (All variants)
24 J-20
24-36 J-15

1484 modern-advance aircraft. Besides the USA that is an extremely potent force.

China doesn't need as much aircrafts as the USA, since they have different doctrines.

This figure doesn't include the remaining Q-5, J-7, J-8. Then you also got aerial refuelling, AWACS, AEW that in 8 years time should have a decent quantity for the airforce to operate with, since the platforms should be ready (Y-9, Y-20).

Totoro from your list you have listed 144 J-7, at the moment they have nearly 600 J-7. They would need to rearm or decommission 17 regiments in an 8 year time period, 2 J-7 regiments per year. J-8 I can see that number hitting that figure you listed.

I don't know how much more the PLAAF/PLANAF can shrink since they need at least certain number to defend the nation, if not even increase their numbers, considering the fact that possibility of naval aircraft carriers would need at least 24-36 J-15 in each carrier.

Math Problems

by 2020 the early batch of J-11A/ Su-27SK and J-10As as well as the original batch of JH-7 will be functionally obsolete if the structural life has not already used up. Mid life upgrades for these limited number will be of marginal utility given the expense.

so they needs to be subtracted out.

J-7/J-8/ wil be also functionally obsolelete. they are mainly there so there is a still a pool of supersonic rated pilots to keep up the strength.

by 2020 All of IL-76 originally brought would be at end of their life. as well as older H-6 bombers. (although bomber would be a lesser issue because their rates are much lower)

the current production rates if kept the same would not be able to keep up with the attrition.

by 2020 it would be a smaller leaner meaner force but I doubt the fighter number would go above 1000.

i.e. said:

Math Problems

by 2020 the early batch of J-11A/ Su-27SK and J-10As as well as the original batch of JH-7 will be functionally obsolete if the structural life has not already used up. Mid life upgrades for these limited number will be of marginal utility given the expense.

so they needs to be subtracted out.

J-7/J-8/ wil be also functionally obsolelete. they are mainly there so there is a still a pool of supersonic rated pilots to keep up the strength.

by 2020 All of IL-76 originally brought would be at end of their life. as well as older H-6 bombers. (although bomber would be a lesser issue because their rates are much lower)

the current production rates if kept the same would not be able to keep up with the attrition.

by 2020 it would be a smaller leaner meaner force but I doubt the fighter number would go above 1000.

Click to expand...

Unless they ramp up production, which would mean resolving the engine bottleneck and buying more Russian engines.

per your own list, today china has 208 j10 plus PLAN's j10, so all in all close to 2040 j10. at the end of 2020 that should be then 480. Since no plane would be 20 years old or older i'd say all of them would remain in service, sans a few that may crash.

su27s will, however, inevitabely be withdrawn from service. so 100 j11a, 100 su30 and 130 j11b that we have now, plus a few years of 24 j11bs per year then from 2015 or so it is not unreasonable to assume just 12 j11b per year, alongside 12 j15 per year, up until 2018 or so when orders for j11 may cease altogether and orders for j20 may start. I simply dont see china going for hi-hi mix, buying next gen and old gen at the same time. Not even russia will do that with su35 and pakfa.
so 76 j11b till 2015, 36 more j11b till 2018, and some 36-60 j15 from 2015-2020.

Considering that j20 will in 2018 be 8 years old, since the first flight, that seems like a decent timeframe for introduction of first squadron. Meaning that the initial serial production would start at least in 2017 and perhaps even late 2016. in two more years until end of 2020. it is perfectly reasonable to see at least 24 more in service.

original two squadrons of jh7 may, indeed, be withdrawn from service by 2020. 240 plus 192 minus 48 is 388

so all in all -
240 j11b, 100 j11a, 100 su30
480 j10
388 jh7a
60 j15 (i do believe by 2020. a second carrier may be entering service)
48 j20
100 (or so) j7e
100 (or so) j7g
100 (or so) j8f

1320 fighters, interceptors or multirole fighters and close to 390 strike aircraft.

with some 120 or so h6 bombers that may add up to little over 1800 combat planes. That is pretty much the number we have today... so if china keeps producing planes at this pace it does seem to intend to keep its numbers up and replace planes on 1 for 1 basis...

self delete

China cannot afford to go all in with J-20, no matter how big their budget becomes.

I highly doubt, though I could be wrong the PLAAF & PLANAF will acquire an extra 188 JH-7A, their JH-7A production lines are slowing down, and no doubt JH-7"whatever" would replace the JH-7A production line.

Well actually J-10/J-11/J-20 would be a light/heavy/heavy mix so in turn is actually low-high mix. The Russians aren't gonna go all T-50, they have even a tighter budget than the Chinese.

2025 no doubt the PLAAF/PLANAF would have all 4th and above generation fighters and fighter-bombers. Between USAF and PLAAF it would be less than 10 year technological gap by then.

we dont know how much j20 will cost. we do know, though that next gen (f35) is being sold for about 150 million to canada and norway, when advanced previous gen f16v or something of the like, would cost upward of 100 million. price is surely higher, but it is not several times higher. and with the 50% price hike comes added capability. And we see smaller fleets inducted.

So far there hasnt been a single example of any country getting both next gen and current gen planes at the same time. US didnt buy any f15s or f16s nor does it plan to. Same can be said for european countries. Even the russians have, so far, contracts for su35 only up to the period when pakfa full rate production may start.

So i just cant be sure and say that chinese (or anyone else) will not go just for j20s as their only twin engined plane in production for plaaf. sure, there may be j15 produced alongside, but that is a specific case. right now there is little over 500 twin engined fighters in both plaaf and planaf combined. just like in US, it is likely that number will be falling over the decades and that at a certain point in the future, say 2040 - there will be only j20s in the two engined fighter category in plaaf, but there may be 300 or so of them.

And, absolutely, that calls for true next gen single engined plane to start replacing j10. At the pace weve seen the midlife upgrade for j10, we might see such a plane by the start of the next decade with entry into service by the end of next decade.