Plaaf 2020

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Er..... are you aware that J-20 prototype(s) is already in flight testing? That it could enter service in another 3 to 5 years? If PLAAF is smart they will skip right to stealth platforms and drones by 2020.

Dozens more J-11B will be built? Because China now builds J-11B at the rate of 1 or 2 per year?

Roger604 said:

Er..... are you aware that J-20 prototype(s) is already in flight testing? That it could enter service in another 3 to 5 years? If PLAAF is smart they will skip right to stealth platforms and drones by 2020.

Dozens more J-11B will be built? Because China now builds J-11B at the rate of 1 or 2 per year?

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Who said it was in flight testing? It's begun taxiing, supposedly. And let's say it has its first flight next year -- it'll still take until around 2018 for it to achieve IOC at the most optimistic projection... Just getting this straight alright -- J-20 won't be entering service in 3-5 years... And UCAVs won't be superseding fighters for a good few decades, either -- even the US isn't pursuing a 6th gen fighter which is unmanned. PLAAF may get some UCAS equivalent around 2020, but no platform which they can just "leapfrog" ahead the rest of the world of.
And what do you mean 1 or 2 J-11Bs a year? Didn't you see the pictures of all those new build J-11Bs and BSs sitting on the tarmac a few weeks ago?

@ Centrist; I think an interim J-11 variant until we see J-20 fielded won't be necessary, and may well take as long to get prototype, testing etc all done (based on SAC's track record). Easier to just keep vamping up the avionics on existing and new build J-11Bs (namely AESA radar).
I think the PLAAF of 2020 won't be too different to now.
Fighters: J-10 and varying upgraded variants, J-11B and varying upgraded variants which replace the initial Su-27's the PLAAF got. Probably a small number of J-20, if they enter service around 2018 and there aren't too many big problems.
Legacy class fighters: I think a few J-8II variants and J-7 (probably G) would still be around by then.
Bombers/Attackers: JH-7A (I'm not sure about the so called B version, I'm doubtful if it even exists), J-11BS to replace and supplement the MKKs and MK2s. H-6K should be operational by 2020, but I don't forsee any B-2 equivalent for quite a few decades.

I think the transport and AWACS future of the PLAAF will be most interesting to watch, what with the Y-20 under development and the KJ-2000 and KJ-200, which are very viable platforms for the next few decades, I'd imagine.
Hopefully by then we'll see about a dozen KJ-200s and more than the current number of KJ-2000s, if the Y-20 can go through all its testing fast enough; it can also be used as a tanker along the lines of Il-78 which the PLAAF depserately requires -- the current 20 or so H-6U just aren't good enough.

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Centrist said:

My point with regard to the J-20 is that China will have few in service in a decade. Why not build improved J-11Bs? Maya talked about an uprated WS10 engine....why WOULDN'T they stick those in future J-11Bs...they could stick in an AESA too, maybe apply some RAM coatings. That would make it comparable to the Su-35 and help fill the gap between the J-11B and J-20.

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Oh right, sorry I thought you meant like a J-11 variant with internal weapon bays or something stupid like that which would take years to develop (incidentally Huitong says supposedly a variant like that is under development in SAC). I agree that the J-11B would and should eventually be upgraded with avionics and better engines, but nothing too radical. If it gets AESA and some newer engines I'd imagine it'll easily be comparable to the Su-35 -- I'd almost go as far to say the two are comparable at the moment.

I agree that China's air force will not be terribly different, but I don't see 300+ J-20s. The United States has a military budget 5 times as large as China and can only afford 187 F-22s. Granted the Chinese jet will be cheaper, but it wont be that much cheaper. The T-50 is rumored to cost $100 million a piece, China's fighter will be in the same ball park, if not more.

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In 2020 we won't see 300+ J-20s obviously, but its final production run could easily be 300, the Russians and Indians are each buying 250 T-50 per country, and the J-20 should be around the same price if not less, and the PLA has a greater budget than the other two anyway. I'm not placing any bets yet, but a final unit count of around 300 (the year 2030 onwards) is not completely ridiculous.
And the end of production of the F-22 was as much political as financial in nature, the former which the J-20 probably won't have to face.

My question is mostly what will replace the Q-5...? The US has the A-10 which will be in service for a long time, does China have any equivalent now or in development? Does the JH-7A fill the same requirement? The difference between "Attack" aircraft and "fighter-bombers" is fuzzy.

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The Q-5 was never really comparable to a CAS aircraft like the slow flying A-10, it was more of a Skyhawk type strike aircraft. I think JH-7A, J-10s, and J-11B/BS/MKK/MK2 can fill the Q-5s role quite easily with guided munitions.
With the USAF replacing their A-10s with the F-35 in future it really does show CAS can be relegated to faster jets.

Hey Centrist, you seem to have a very idiosyncratic view of what the term 'dog-fighter' means if you classify J-10 and the JSF as that.

Is there anything a Q5 can do that a attack drone can't? The China Air Show this year witnessed flourishing developments of UAVs in the country, many of which feature ground attack abilities, I take it as a sign that designers & manufacturers in the industry are responding to certain new demands from PLAAF.

I pretty much agree with Blitizo's assessment on the subject, except for the part about new generation fighter (btw how do you guys know it's called J20?). Unless they decide to use Russian engines on the new fighter, I see no possibility for it to enter mass production before 2017, judging from the fact they only managed to assemble a WS15 prototype a year ago. We may look at the development history of F-119 for comparison.

Obviously the remaining J7 & J8 will be completely redundant even as reserve in 2020 e.g. even L15 trainers would beat them in a AA combat, I wonder is it possible for PLAAF to sell them in the second hand market by then? I presume a potion of them were produced after 2005, mainly J7G & J8F (BVR capable), which may fetch a modest price with at least 10 years of useful life remaining?

EDIATH said:

Is there anything a Q5 can do that a attack drone can't? The China Air Show this year witnessed flourishing developments of UAVs in the country, many of which feature ground attack abilities, I take it as a sign that designers & manufacturers in the industry are responding to certain new demands from PLAAF.

I pretty much agree with Blitizo's assessment on the subject, except for the part about new generation fighter (btw how do you guys know it's called J20?). Unless they decide to use Russian engines on the new fighter, I see no possibility for it to enter mass production before 2017, judging from the fact they only managed to assemble a WS15 prototype a year ago. We may look at the development history of F-119 for comparison.

Obviously the remaining J7 & J8 will be completely redundant even as reserve in 2020 e.g. even L15 trainers would beat them in a AA combat, I wonder is it possible for PLAAF to sell them in the second hand market by then? I presume a potion of them were produced after 2005, mainly J7G & J8F (BVR capable), which may fetch a modest price with at least 10 years of useful life remaining?

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Hmm I don't think I mentioned the J-20 will enter mass production before 2017, I did say it could achieve IOC around 2018 -- but we expect the first batch to be equipped with an improved WS-10 engine so it won't matter that the Ws-15 will not be immediately available.

I myself am calling the 4th gen plane J-20 because of Huitong's page, which labels it as such, and also because the prototypes are supposedly labelled as "2001" and "2002". The J-10 prototypes were called "1001" and "1002" so the parallels lead me to this conclusion. Of course it may end up being designated something else entirely, but for now I at least call it J-20 alongside the more widely known name of J-XX.

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And while Chinese UAV technology has advanced, I think it'll be a few years until it can get capability like the MQ-9, and a decade until they get an X-47B/UCAS equivalent. UCAVs I think don't have the endurance and persistence needed to take over the roles of a Q-5, but will be good for taking out high value targets of course.

I see. Info. from Huitong has been very reliable indeed, hopefully J20 designation doesn't imply J10 * 2

However, I believe future drones will be more appropriet for close air support missions than traditional manned attackers like Q5. The reason is a manned attacker normally incorporates many design features to protect the pilot, facing great hazard for such missions. UAVs is pretty much freed from these restrains on their designs. For example, they can be built with lighter materials to increase endurance & range. We may see future drones focusing on either stealth or high lift to drag ratio in their overall design (with larger size & MTOW than manned counterparts), attacking with precise munitions from beyond the range of weapons on the ground.

Another reason for UAVs to become prevalent in PLAAF is Chinese industry is far less behind their western competitors in automation and IT than any other areas. It might take less effort for them to develop a MQ-9 equivalent than an A-10 one (TF-34 engine?)

The Sea-Harriers have shown that high speed doesn't make you winner and the US missileer concept can finally work with multi-spectrum long range missiles with sufficient maneuverability. China could go cheap and slow with part of the carrier deck, similar to their Brazilian trainers who prefer mixed fixed and rotary wing decks. A slow fixed wing aircraft can extend surveillance and ASuW ten times the distance of helicopters at low costs, giving the airwing of a carrier 100 times the area capable to cover. For unmanned aircrafts I'd favour small and cheap with softkill weapons that can take risks and prepare the real assault either by air- or shipborne missile strikes.