PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

Biscuits said:

This.

Since when was it said China doesn't make more than 30 000 PGMs a year? In fact, that number seems laughably low.

In the absolute worst case scenarios, for example where Taiwan is totally infiltrated and the evacuation followed by destruction of all infrastructure inside the province must be achieved, China still has a lot of Flankers which should be able to mount SVP24 style trajectory calculators for dumb bombs.

Manufacturing enough unguided bombs to commit scorched earth inside China (as well as for some close by foreign targets like South Korea) should not be a challenge.

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tphuang said:

since when? Since Shilao's podcast. In fact, it was his podcast where they said PLA acknowledges they need to stock more missiles.

What is up with this defensiveness about needing to have enough missiles. The debate here isn't whether or not they have enough. My assertion is that these conflicts have shown they need to overestimate rather than underestimate the amount of munitions they need, because they get used up really quickly.

As for your other comments about unguided bombs, what are you talking about? Who do you think they will be using most of PGMs against? And do you think launching dumb bombs against those targets are a good idea?

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Jason_ said:

I don't think Shilao has ever commented on the production rate of PGM in China.

I do remember Shilao saying that for China, the limiting factor for producing PGM is actually the explosive warheads, which can only be produced in a few licensed factories. The electronics can easily be mass produced. So we should expect the maximum production rate for PGMs to be the same as dumb bombs.

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tphuang said:

he specifically said that China has bw US and Russia in terms of # of PGMs. That should give you an idea of PLA's stock pile

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bustead said:

If explosive filling production is an issue, can China make use of guided concrete bombs instead? Obviously not for all targets, but it can be useful against hangars or small buildings.

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Jason_ said:

stockpile ≠ production rate

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tphuang said:

and if you have a good sense of the stock pile, then you can set an upper boundary on production rate

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Jason_ said:

I don't think Shilao has ever commented on the production rate of PGM in China.

I do remember Shilao saying that for China, the limiting factor for producing PGM is actually the explosive warheads, which can only be produced in a few licensed factories. The electronics can easily be mass produced. So we should expect the maximum production rate for PGMs to be the same as dumb bombs.

Click to expand...

Jason_ said:

I don't think Shilao has ever commented on the production rate of PGM in China.

I do remember Shilao saying that for China, the limiting factor for producing PGM is actually the explosive warheads, which can only be produced in a few licensed factories. The electronics can easily be mass produced. So we should expect the maximum production rate for PGMs to be the same as dumb bombs.

Click to expand...