PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Stroke piston drones don't replace normal weapons for a good reason. You can't do SEAD or high value strikes with them.

But they're gonna be very easy to make, and they'll supplement the bomber fleet when it comes to delivering low cost bombing on infrastructure.

Even though the Ukraine war kind of proves that "lightning victories" are very difficult in today's environment, a common US cope is that China having industrial dominance doesn't matter because modern platforms can't be churned out the same way as WW2 platforms could.

Well, the stroke piston drone has a range of at least 2000km and is arguably less complicated than WW2 planes. WW2 America could build over 300 aircraft of various types in 1 day, and modern China has orders of magnitudes higher manufacturing capacity.

The way China would fight wouldn't rely on suicide drones. What they would do is hit air defenses and key targets with stealthy and/or hypersonic weapons to disrupt the invaders' abilities to maintain their rearward supply lines, while the navy, airforce and rocket force uses combined platforms to defend the 1st island chain.

Once a gap in air defense opens up from rocket force/air force SEAD missions, for example relatively early on, it would likely be in Kyushu (and SK, if SK invokes the NK-China MDT by attacking China), they can send volleys of 10 000s daily stroke piston drones, using them to take out roads, ports, electricity, water and rally points.
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You don't need to wait until gaps in the air defences have opened up, before using $20K Shaheed type drones.

The cost of defensive SAMs is far greater.
For example, Patriots are 200x more expensive. Even a Stinger is at least 5x more expensive.

So suppose China were to launch large numbers of low-cost Shaheeds even whilst air defences are intact on Day One.

This will deplete the air defences (comprised of a much smaller number of expensive SAMs), and is therefore a winning strategy.
 
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aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just use PHL-16 saturation strike to actually do DEAD instead of just trying to exhaust SAM magazines. Of course I would recommend doing both simultaneously.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
aqh said:
Just use PHL-16 saturation strike to actually do DEAD instead of just trying to exhaust SAM magazines. Of course I would recommend doing both simultaneously.
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The longest range existing PHL-16 munition is a SRBM with a range of like 500km. And I expect it would cost somewhere between $0.5-$1 Mn.

So a PHL-16 saturation strike is not feasible for Japan. But a PHL-16 should be able to integrate a Shaheed launch pod, which did have enough range.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
BoraTas said:
@Patchwork_Chimera

What is your opinion on the Shahed-136? Is it really a good use of resources? I have my own suspicions as the only good thing about the Shahed is its price. And they still require extensive facilities and personnel to maintain and use.
Even in this forum, I started to see arguments like "China will just launch 3000 Shaheds every day and Japan will return to stone age". If it was this simple why China, or any other country for that matter, are still pursuing expensive missiles full of dedicated military hardware? Something doesn't add up.
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The Rocket Force only has a few, if any reloads. From what I can see, there are only 1-3? Reloads per launcher. Afterwards, you're going to have a lot of unused facilities, personnel and equipment. You might as well have them launch Shaheed pods.

The Chinese Army will have large numbers of launch trucks sitting around doing nothing for at least a week, particularly in Central Theatre Command which acts as a reserve.

Again, you might as well have them formed into a task group and launching thousands of Shaheeds, before they return back to their units. The personnel, equipment and facilities already exist.

Remember Shaheeds are very slow and have a small warhead. So you still need other munitions which are faster or with large warheads for hardened targets.
 
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aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
A lot of people talk about how Guam and the 1IC and 2IC chain are like "onions" or layers the PLA but what they don't realize is that after a few weeks of conflict the US will be facing an onion of defences in the pacific that they would have to get through to be able to actually break up a blockade of Taiwan.

Lets say its 2030 :
In the first few weeks the PLA would seek to destroy all forward deployed US/JP assets in the 1IC. This includes Okinawa, most of Japan's bases and any US naval assets that are within 1000 Km of the Chinese coast. They will absolutely be able to accomplish this due to the fires and sensor complex they have built over decades.

After this is taken care of the PLA can have a couple dozen warships, destroyers, frigates with at least 100-150 carrier based aircraft of mostly J-35s and just under a thousand J-20s supplied by YY-20 with standoff weapons and of course land based fire generation capability that the US won't have anything near an equivalent to that will be a wall of sorts that the US would have to get though just to break up a blockade of Taiwan. Even if they do get through that wall they will then have to face the aforementioned fires and ISR complex in the 1IC and the closer and deeper they go they face exponentially more land based fires and they give the PLA more accurate targeting data and their fires and defences are exhausted from going through that wall AND are further away from their main supply base Guam meaning they will mainly reply on a vulnerable aux fleet.

Whilst this is happening Guam is getting hammered and saturate with HGVs, CJ-100s, DFs etc which if the Americans loose then they will loose their central nervous system.

Basically just imagine if your the US. After your FOBs in Japan/ Okinawa are destroyed you have to make sure you miraculously can get through a wall of defences whilst under heavy land based fires , after you do get through this you face exponentially more fires.
 
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aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also I forget to add with a few H-20s carry YJ-12s and what not it will be extremely difficult to get through.
 
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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
aqh said:
A lot of people talk about how Guam and the 1IC and 2IC chain are like "onions" or layers the PLA but what they don't realize is that after a few weeks of conflict the US will be facing an onion of defences in the pacific that they would have to get through to be able to actually break up a blockade of Taiwan.

Lets say its 2030 :
In the first few weeks the PLA would seek to destroy all forward deployed US/JP assets in the 1IC. This includes Okinawa, most of Japan's bases and any US naval assets that are within 1000 Km of the Chinese coast. They will absolutely be able to accomplish this due to the fires and sensor complex they have built over decades.

After this is taken care of the PLA can have a couple dozen warships, destroyers, frigates with at least 100-150 carrier based aircraft of mostly J-35s and just under a thousand J-20s supplied by YY-20 with standoff weapons and of course land based fire generation capability that the US won't have anything near an equivalent to that will be a wall of sorts that the US would have to get though just to break up a blockade of Taiwan. Even if they do get through that wall they will then have to face the aforementioned fires and ISR complex in the 1IC and the closer and deeper they go they face exponentially more land based fires and they give the PLA more accurate targeting data and their fires and defences are exhausted from going through that wall AND are further away from their main supply base Guam meaning they will mainly reply on a vulnerable aux fleet.

Whilst this is happening Guam is getting hammered and saturate with HGVs, CJ-100s, DFs etc which if the Americans loose then they will loose their central nervous system.

Basically just imagine if your the US. After your FOBs in Japan/ Okinawa are destroyed you have to make sure you miraculously can get through a wall of defences whilst under heavy land based fires , after you do get through this you face exponentially more fires.
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The devastation caused by your scenario really should lead to the question whether intervention in Taiwan is worth it (as I mentioned before, 90% it is not). If Guam is threated to be destroyed in such a way, the US control of the Pacific would be pushed all the way back to Hawaii. I think they would force Australia to intervene and be on the road to WW3.

Seems easier to let Taiwan go and you keep Japan and Guam.

Possibly US military planners do see similar scenarios as you do, which is why they are hoping China is tripped up by their salami slicing political games and attack before they can achieve this kind of dominance.

james smith esq said:

I think I’d already suggested that China learn from the lowly treatment and poor payment of Russian troops; this is a recipe for exactly what’s happened. The one thing that purchases the “loyalty“ of the average ‘Muruhcuhn’ idiot soldier, sailor, airman, and Marine is that, even on a private’s pay, they can afford to participate in circus AmeriKKKa, and their bread is free!

Actually, I’m fairly certain that PLA leadership has long-since been aware of these factors!
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If you were former USMC (although instead of the few and proud, you seem to be the "I can't be the only one!" and jaded), maybe you can attest to this. I heard that areas around US military bases are dotted with numerous payday loan places because it is hard to make ends meet. Can they really afford to participate in the circus?
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
The devastation caused by your scenario really should lead to the question whether intervention in Taiwan is worth it (as I mentioned before, 90% it is not). If Guam is threated to be destroyed in such a way, the US control of the Pacific would be pushed all the way back to Hawaii. I think they would force Australia to intervene and be on the road to WW3.

Seems easier to let Taiwan go and you keep Japan and Guam.

Possibly US military planners do see similar scenarios as you do, which is why they are hoping China is tripped up by their salami slicing political games and attack before they can achieve this kind of dominance.



If you were former USMC (although instead of the few and proud, you seem to be the "I can't be the only one!" and jaded), maybe you can attest to this. I heard that areas around US military bases are dotted with numerous payday loan places because it is hard to make ends meet. Can they really afford to participate in the circus?
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I’m not “former USMC”; I’m an ex-Marine!
Since you seem to have drunk the Kool-Aid, you’ll understand the distinction.
You say that “you heard”? So, you’re using “they said” as your source? Which manual was the guide for your thesis?
Another one for the list; bye!
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
aqh said:
Also I forget to add with a few H-20s carry YJ-12s and what not it will be extremely difficult to get through.
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You just got’ta git that YJ-12 in there, huh?
Last year, a drone salesman in the Ukraine War Developments thread; this year, a YJ-12 salesman in this thread!
Business is good!
 
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