PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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Why bother with tactical nukes? Putin has shown the world that the US is not willing to risk nuclear escalation. Just achieve nuclear parity and drop the NFU.
The point of this exercise is to deter the US from launching conventional strikes against soft Chinese mainland targets like shipyards by threatening tactical nuclear strikes against identical targets in the US. The reason for using tactical nukes as opposed to conventional weapons is because the volume of fire China will be able to generate against the mainland US is pitifully small, so each hit must be very strong and very accurate - that spells out "intercontinental range HGV with tactical nuclear warhead."

A roughly one kiloton tactical nuclear weapon is destructive enough that one hit is enough to delete Newport News Shipbuilding or USAF Plant 4, but not strong enough to obliterate or even severely damage the cities they're in. The aim is calibrated escalation of force and to put the onus of escalation onto the US: leave Chinese military-industrial facilities alone or suffer comparable destruction. The objective is symmetric deterrence - an eye for an eye - but the means are asymmetric. I don't think the physics of the weapons used is what matters, the scale of destruction is what matters.

Of course, reaching strategic parity is a prerequisite for this strategy to work so as to prevent the US from escalating to strategic use of nuclear weapons.
hmm, that last part is quite rude.
I agree. Even though the quoted comment was supportive, I urge that we keep discussion civil.
The reality is that Chinese military bases on the mainland where the aircraft and ships are departing from are fair game, since China will be hitting all the American military bases in the region and most likely Hawaii and Alaska.
I differentiate between strikes on strictly military targets like bases, which can be considered fair game, and soft military-industrial targets like shipyards which I do not consider fair game.
 

Heresy

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hmm, that last part is quite rude.

The reality is that Chinese military bases on the mainland where the aircraft and ships are departing from are fair game, since China will be hitting all the American military bases in the region and most likely Hawaii and Alaska.

Similarly, not being able to retaliate proportionally doesn't mean it's a good idea to escalate.

Hitting military targets is one thing. Hitting civilian infrastructure is quite another. It just so happens that Chinese shipyards are a mix of military and civilian. Also, no one was talking about hitting Hawaii or Alaska.

Finally, when one is unable to retaliate proportionally, the options go to two: to retaliate or not to retaliate. Which option do you think the Chinese government would take after some US cruise missiles just blew up Jiangnan Shipyards? Whether you think it's a good idea or not is irrelevant.
 

Andy1974

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What is up with people and tactical nukes? As soon as you start launch any kind of nukes, the escalation is going up a whole different notch and will result in ICBMs launched from both sides. I really hope you are not thinking that an ICBM exchange is a good thing.
It is the US that is likely to escalate to tactical nukes, I find it quite likely this will happen, and it doesn’t mean it will escalate to a full nuclear exchange.

At some point Chinese conventional forces will be stronger/more technologically advanced than the USs. This will force the US to consider using tactical nukes quickly in a conflict.

We all know that Trump would not listen to the so called logic of: “oh, but if we use that then it will destroy us all”.

The US will soon find itself in Russias position, and Russia relies on nukes,

EDIT: Recently a US commander called tactical nukes “just another weapon”. They are, right now, manufacturing consent for their use.
 

Andy1974

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They've only recently been able to achieve air superiority over areas of the 1st Island Chain.
That is a prerequisite to use shorter-ranged SDBs or JDAM equivalents.
As some people consider SDB to be so important then why doesn’t China just build a drone that drops dozens of them. Cheap, fast, expendable, first wave weapon.
 

tphuang

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Hitting military targets is one thing. Hitting civilian infrastructure is quite another. It just so happens that Chinese shipyards are a mix of military and civilian. Also, no one was talking about hitting Hawaii or Alaska.
#51
Not true (see link above), I specifically mentioned that military bases in Alaska that USAF operates from would be fair game. Similarly, carriers that are hanging out in Pearl Harbor would be fair game since they are military targets. Do I not count as one?

Finally, when one is unable to retaliate proportionally, the options go to two: to retaliate or not to retaliate. Which option do you think the Chinese government would take after some US cruise missiles just blew up Jiangnan Shipyards? Whether you think it's a good idea or not is irrelevant.

Defend the shipyard better, repair the shipyard and/or move more of your construction to Dalian and Guangzhou/Guangxi where they can protect it better. There are plenty of targets that China can easily hit that would make USAF/USN unable to continue its operations for a while. And if Chinese SSNs are quiet enough, there is no reason why China cannot launch LACMs at naval bases in San Diego or other targets on continental USA.
 

SampanViking

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Interesting that the a potential flash point in the Solomon Islands has not entered into this discussion.
I know everybody has been quick to shout hypocrisy over the not so very subtle threats that have been issued, but I think it misses a far more salient point.

Most people seem to think that Taiwan is going to be the flashpoint between PRC/USA etc and we have all commented at length about the home advantages to the Chinese in any such combat.
A Solomon Islands flashpoint has none of those advantages for China, so If I was a US Theater Commander tasked with producing a strategy, I think I know where I would want to make my play!
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Interesting that the a potential flash point in the Solomon Islands has not entered into this discussion.
I know everybody has been quick to shout hypocrisy over the not so very subtle threats that have been issued, but I think it misses a far more salient point.

Most people seem to think that Taiwan is going to be the flashpoint between PRC/USA etc and we have all commented at length about the home advantages to the Chinese in any such combat.
A Solomon Islands flashpoint has none of those advantages for China, so If I was a US Theater Commander tasked with producing a strategy, I think I know where I would want to make my play!
Isn't the treaty only a 'domestic' security guarantee? And NOT a military security pact?

In other words, China isn't obliged to come help if Solomon Islands get militarily invaded.

I mean still, the US and its allies can spin it however they want, and say China can't actually give security to its partners and the likes. But... At that point you invaded a sovereign country (although US and its allies have done this many times before).
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
hmm, that last part is quite rude.

The reality is that Chinese military bases on the mainland where the aircraft and ships are departing from are fair game, since China will be hitting all the American military bases in the region and most likely Hawaii and Alaska.

Similarly, not being able to retaliate proportionally doesn't mean it's a good idea to escalate.
And you think attacking mainland base is a piece of cake? They are some of the heavily defended piece of real estate in the World. You need to destroy PLAAF first not sure if it easy because most of the squadron are based inland where 1 regiment based in 1 airfield and some of them are heavily reinforced .Whereas US and their allied are bunched up in fewer unreinforced air based. You take Naha, Yokosuka and other air base then you degraded US airforce!
 

Abominable

Major
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Interesting that the a potential flash point in the Solomon Islands has not entered into this discussion.
I know everybody has been quick to shout hypocrisy over the not so very subtle threats that have been issued, but I think it misses a far more salient point.

Most people seem to think that Taiwan is going to be the flashpoint between PRC/USA etc and we have all commented at length about the home advantages to the Chinese in any such combat.
A Solomon Islands flashpoint has none of those advantages for China, so If I was a US Theater Commander tasked with producing a strategy, I think I know where I would want to make my play!
I agree the Taiwan issue is less likely to be a flashpoint than many other places. ROC now is closer to China than it has ever been despite what their politicians say. Tensions have worsened over the past few years but are much better than they were during the Cold War.

Only two likely candidates to invade the Solomon Islands. Either Australia unilaterally or America.
America would lead to a nuclear conflict so the real question would be whether China could repeal an Australian invasion conventionally.

Solomon Islands alone isn't enough, there will need to be similar agreements with multiple islands surrounding Australia.
 

tphuang

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And you think attacking mainland base is a piece of cake? They are some of the heavily defended piece of real estate in the World. You need to destroy PLAAF first not sure if it easy because most of the squadron are based inland where 1 regiment based in 1 airfield and some of them are heavily reinforced .Whereas US and their allied are bunched up in fewer unreinforced air based. You take Naha, Yokosuka and other air base then you degraded US airforce!
I did not say anything like that. I said US military would try to degrade Chinese bases, missile launchers and possibly military production facility on the mainland in the event of a war. And depending on how much risk they are willing to take in the positioning of their carrier groups and how much risk Japan is willing to take in terms of the airports it would allow USAF to operate out of and a wide variety of other factors, China could potentially be dealing with a really large collection of missiles.

Keep in mind that China does have a geographical advantage, because it's operating out of its backyard, so everything in PLA would be at its disposal. It would also be able to repair bases and factories a lot quicker with all the available workers. But for the sake of the discussion, I can't pretend this is just a one sided exchange.
 
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