PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
ABSOLUTE CHUD
Hey, lookie here! Someone's been reading our forum, methinks.
The most interesting sections are "A New Operational Concept: Blockade by Fire" and "Learning from Damage to World War II Ports."
Though I would challenge the report's insistence on modelling only SRBM fires on ports when the PLA already demonstrated PHL-16 use during Strait Thunder 2025-A. We also know the PLA commissioned 1 MILLION Shahed-style drones from Poly Technologies to be delivered by this year.
A quick glance reveals:
"Historically, cargo ships have often traveled into war zones, even knowing that other commercial ships have been sunk. Shippers make money by carrying cargo, and they do not wish to stop unless forced to."
"Commercial ships that have suffered limited damage from missile strikes in the recent past have often proceeded to their intended destination or to the nearest port, which in the case of a missile blockade of Taiwan would likely be a Taiwanese port. To disrupt traffic to Taiwan, therefore, China would likely need to fully disable or sink the ships that it targets, not simply damage them or their cargo."
"The Houthis' record of damaging commercial ships should provide some useful information for considering a Chinese blockade of Taiwan."
Okay, you can flush this roll of toilet paper now.
The report makes a lot of assumptions that collapse under scrutiny. I still think it's interesting for being one of the first Western papers that go into topics that we've been discussing for years. We can assess how the West envision a blockade by fires would unfold and what they know about Chinese capabilities based on simulation parameters.
I know the author intended to highlight the necessity of a firepower blockade targeting ports directly by describing the high cost and inefficiency of a naval blockade, but even the initial case study is completely wrong. As for the section on firepower blockades, it’s true, as you said, that it’s fixated solely on ballistic missiles, which shows just how terrible their observational and analytical skills are.
what a complete mess.
It’s because they’re trying to model China like Iran (tells you a lot about what inspired this one)
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To expand on this point, in my experience regardless of the wargame model/mechanics one uses, once you've corrected for biases and assumptions the results will start looking closer to each other and to the real life outcomes. It's also why even games with seemingly inaccurate equipment models such as War Thunder can more accurately mirror real life combat dynamics than something with supposedly more accurate vehicle models like DCS World.
Use logic, doesn't take too long to realize the for the US fighting a protracted war against a country of 1.6 million km2, with land borders and that can built its own arsenal from two boats and far off bases was an horrible idea. You don't need a simulation, you just need a map.
China is a massive country with land borders, a lot these countries in the pacific are islands very substible to trade disruptions and doesn't take that much, attacking a few shipping vessels and the entire shipping industry in the region collapse, nobody is going to take risks in a warzone, that would mean the total economic collapse of the pacific region. And that is not even counting that these countries economies depend on trading with China, there is not other way around it.
I think a lot of the countries are going to impose pressure to avoid or even fight against blockade or trade disruption that could harm their economies. A lot of these countries with the exception of a few know the US not from the region and they can go from the region if become a stalemate, these are countries are the ones who are going to be left dealing with China alone.
From tactical standpoint these "chokepoints" are not very defensible at all and they are really susceptible to saturations attack and ballistic anti-ship missiles, that would depleted the defenses of the vessels and countries defense who defense budgets to be honest are not as high as US or other military powers.
Is complicated and a situation that many countries in the region would rather no be in, I dont think a Island at 100 km of the coast of China it worth the mess.