Foreign interference like say Japan which wants to incorporate Taiwan as a Japanese prefecture?And to act like a permanent dagger aimed at China to springboard attacks onto the ML in the future?? I can see the malignant Trump giving the tacit greenlight to the equally malignant-China-hating Takaichi to do so.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
it doesn't really matter
most of taiwanese who care about china threat already know this . taiwan pay US (in form of weapon buy) for protection or more correctly US's ambiguity about may be they gonna help taiwan when the time come as long as this ambiguity still scare china from military invasion or sabotage attack (aim to ruin taiwan economy make it easier to invade later)
the payment still worth every penny
That doesn´t hold, that island has never been a big buyer of US or anyone else weapons, the Military budget and pressure from China is a constrain. So doesn´t "worth the penny".
China is not "scare" about the "ambiguity", because there is not ambiguity, the reason why the US has diplomatic relations with China is because the US recognize that Taiwan and China are one and the PRC is the legitimate government. The US pretended that someday the KMT will take over the whole China. The moment the US establish diplomatic relations with the island, China will pack their things and expel US diplomats from the mainland because a country cannot have two governments.
Military speaking China know that they are going to fight the US from their continental size country while the US will have to rely in far off bases and boats, that was a problem in the 80s, 90s, 2000s and today. The issue that the Chinese know if they go to war for that island, they will go full force and if you had ever seen a map of everything of value on that island is a narrow band facing the Mainland. The damage is going to be disproportional in a full blown war and Taiwan province will be in ruins. They don´t want that.
So it seems that for now China is preparing mentally and military to either waiting for the US to declare formal relations with the Island and cut with China or put enough pressure to cut a Macau-HK deal with the Island.
The thing is you could harbour hopes that USA could help and help once the shooting start, based on the fact that ROC pays US protection money for weapons that may or may not be delivered.
However it's much harder to hold onto that hope when US comes out publicly and say no actually we can't deliver weapons to Taiwan due to reasons. And this change just happened to show up after a high profile meeting between the leaders of the two countries where you know the topic of Taiwan came up and Xi would have warned Trump that's a no-no.
Now you not only have to believe in the hope that US will show up to save your during AR, but also the pause on weapon sale has nothing to do with China telling US not to do it. That's a lot higher bar for your leap of faith.
Taiwan has value even if reduced to a glass parking lot. Control over the island immediately neuters the First Island Chain containment regime and China's second strike capability is augmented by being able to launch SSBN directly into deep waters. The latter alone is a paradigm shifting strategic gain.
I think that it's important to note that this "ambiguity" has more to do with how the US wants to present itself as, and has very little to do with China. The same goes for whenever they use the term "deterrence". It's not actually meant to deter China; it's more about giving themselves reassurance.
Any strategic thinker taking a sober look at the Taiwan situation knows that China is already uninterested in taking the island by force. There's nothing to deter because it's a move of last resort. And if China is only attacking when there are no other options, then why would it matter how much force was arrayed against them?
To be fair, American planners can't be absolutely sure that China wouldn't try some sort of attack without Taiwan first crossing a red line. So there would be some value for preparing contingencies. But notice how nobody is willing to say that even though they all know what's going on.
and believe US military can actually defeat the PLA
You may say it more generally, it's more comfortable to live with a fortress guarding your own most productive coast and its SLOCs, rather than with an enemy one overlooking same exact places...
I've deleted a number of posts that directly links to a reddit post of a different community.
As written before, we do not want direct interfaces with other social media/platform communities, especially if it is in a mocking manner. This is to avoid possibility of brigading and reverse brigading.
As written before, we do not want direct interfaces with other social media/platform communities, especially if it is in a mocking manner. This is to avoid possibility of brigading and reverse brigading.
DPP supporter sarcastically commented that the PLA should go for an American decapitation style on Lai Chingde on the PTT forum and was promptly arrested and detained for “online threats”. He could potentially face up to 50 days in detention for the transgression.
Last edited: