PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Japan, Taiwan and every US ally is spending copious amounts on defense and only going to keep growing their spending. My assumption is that if the war does come for China, it will come in 10-15 years. By that time, those countries will start their own mass production of missiles and drones.

I fear China will face an Iran style strategy from the likes of Japan and Taiwan where they mass acquire missiles and drones, which will render Chinese air power advantage much less dominant, China will find itself facing enormous amounts of drones and missiles and find that its air and missile defense is inadequate.

I have discussed this in the past that China lacks numbers when it comes to air defense. They have around 600 units of long range AD which is smaller than both Russia and US. They are still reliant on old S-300 for a major part of their AD stockpile.

China has developed the advanced AD systems. But cannot really produce it in huge numbers due to its much lower military budget.

The problem is always money. China's adversaries are spending without limit while China barely grows its budget each year.
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I think China already has massive escalation dominance over both Taiwan and Japan.

Meaning that no matter what they do, they cannot really shift the balance in any fundamentally different direction.

Both are also geographically easy to choke compared to a country like Iran. Iran has a stable rear and multiple land-based transport links through China and Russia. Taiwan and Japan do not have that kind of depth.

Iran is not fully self-sufficient, but it is still far more self-sufficient than Japan and Taiwan in the essentials that matter most in a real crisis, especially energy, and to a significant extent staple foods.

Japan and Taiwan are much more dependent on imported fuel and imported food calories, which makes them structurally easier to squeeze.

And then there is the industrial side of it. China’s electricity generation alone is on the scale of the US, the EU, and India combined, basically the next three biggest producers.

So how exactly is a manufacturing attrition war supposed to favor Taiwan and Japan over China?

And if the US Navy is already staying 700 to 1000 kilometers away from Iran, evacuating regional bases, and seeing carriers take hits or suffer internal breakdowns against Iran, then what exactly do people think happens in a war against China?

This war has made me revise my earlier prediction that China would need to wait for hyperinflation and inevitable internal unrest to hit the US before it could win.

Now I do not even think China would need to wait for that.

It might not even need to wait for its overwhelming attrition advantage to fully play out.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
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tokenanalyst said:
Japan and Taiwan budgets are tiny compared to China, they almost completely relying of US weapons imports and US budget is bloated with high inefficiencies. China is just simply outproducing the US in almost everything, the is the problem the US have, when China combine its civilian production with their military production that alone sky rocket the value of their budget, they can just produce more for less.
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Taiwan and Japan can produce their own missiles and drones and I am sure will only increase their ability to produce missiles and drones if the US keeps delaying shipment. Unlike US, Japan and taiwan are proper industrial economies and can mass produce stuff on the cheap.

My point is, China will have its own Iran reckoning when the war comes that limited number of weapons is simply not sufficient and many critical weapons will start to run out within 1 month.

China will also be surprised by Japanese and Taiwanese mass strike using missiles and drones and their air defense will not be able stop all strikes. Their will be casualties and destruction.

Whenever this war comes, it will not be easy as many people here presume. It will be tough and attitional. Even if China wins, it will not be without massive destruction of its own forces and critical infrastructure. It will not be an easy war.
 
T

tokenanalyst

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tamsen_ikard said:
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Taiwan and Japan can produce their own missiles and drones and I am sure will only increase their ability to produce missiles and drones if the US keeps delaying shipment. Unlike US, Japan and taiwan are proper industrial economies and can mass produce stuff on the cheap.

My point is, China will have its own Iran reckoning when the war comes that limited number of weapons is simply not sufficient and many critical weapons will start to run out within 1 month.

China will also be surprised by Japanese and Taiwanese mass strike using missiles and drones and their air defense will not be able stop all strikes. Their will be casualties and destruction.

Whenever this war comes, it will not be easy as many people here presume. It will be tough and attitional. Even if China wins, it will not be without massive destruction of its own forces and critical infrastructure. It will not be an easy war.
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But they will never ever outproduce China. I think you are having trouble understanding. China missile production is unmatched. Missiles has been core of China war strategy for decades, even before Iran, because China planned for a asymmetric war against the US for decades. Now they have more symmetrical capabilities but their asymmetrical capabilities are still there.

They have not only building a huge quantity of missiles but also a massive variety
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
But they will never ever outproduce China. I think you are having trouble understanding. China missile production is unmatched. Missiles has been core of China war strategy for decades, even before Iran, because China planned for a asymmetric war against the US for decades. Now they have more symmetrical capabilities but their asymmetrical capabilities are still there.

They have not only building a huge quantity of missiles but also a massive variety
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China barely produces 200 fighter jets, barely produces 100 tanks per year.

Yes, China has developed plenty of new missiles and drone designs but they are iterating fast and do not have the time to acquire sufficient numbers.

Where do you think China's very limited 300 billion military budget goes? It mostly goes to research of new weapon systems rather than actual mass production of those systems.

Its clear China is prioritising rapid advancement of tech rather than stockpiling numbers.

So, no they dont have a massive stockpile because they never spent huge budget to acquire it. They purposefully kept their military budget low, and spent most of it on rapid catch up to US defense tech rather than mass production.
 
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tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
China barely produces 200 fighter jets, barely produces 100 tanks per year.
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First of give me your sources. Second whatever the real numbers are they produce what they need for a conflict.
tamsen_ikard said:
Yes, China has developed plenty of new missiles and drone designs but they are iterating fast and do not have the time to acquire sufficient numbers.
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They have been producing missiles for decades, they have massive stockpiles of missiles, they have massive missile factories, now mostly automated. They can produce more that the entire world combine. Ignoring that would be a massive strategic mistake.
 
A

A potato

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
China barely produces 200 fighter jets, barely produces 100 tanks per year.

Yes, China has developed plenty of new missiles and drone designs but they are iterating fast and do not have the time to acquire sufficient numbers.

Where do you think China's very limited 300 billion military budget goes? It mostly goes to research of new weapon systems rather than actual mass production of those systems.

Its clear China is prioritising rapid advancement of tech rather than stockpiling numbers.

So, no they dont have a massive stockpile because they never spent huge budget to acquire it. They purposefully kept their military budget low, and spent most of it on rapid catch up to US defense tech rather than mass production.
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America dosen't even produce any new tanks now they just refurbish old ones. Europe while producing tanks and producing them in even smaller quantities than China. For example Germany is 58 tanks per year.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
tamsen_ikard said:
I think people are putting too much faith in China's production capacity. In a proper high intensity war, those factories could be disrupted very easily. Production could be stopped, material shipment stopped using drones and missiles, the entire factory or critical parts of it could be destroyed.

Putting too much faith on production during wartime is not prudent these days.

Worst case scenario, China loses production capacity and also faces mass drone and missile strikes and is forced to fight like Iran with limited stockpile.

I think they need to have some factories moved underground similar to Iran and how Mao envisioned with his third front strategy.
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Dude, what are you doing? Your "worst case scenerio" is that China can't do anything it's best at doing. If people are putting too much faith in Chinese producation, then you're putting way too much faith in America's military to even operate on a basic basis in Asia. You're putting way too much faith that Japan or any of these chihuahua countries can produce anything at all to affect China.

The way you write is like, "I think you're putting too much faith in the professional NBA teams. Let's say they can't jump when other people are bump into them before they take off. So now they're limited to their ground height, no dunks. Then maybe they can't shoot either because you know those hands up obscure their vision. Then they might not be able to run either cus there's too many people on the court blocking their paths. So now, worst case scenerio, every pro team in the NBA can't run, jump or shoot; me and my 4 friends could take the championships next season!

But honestly, it's kinda moot right now. After the beating that Iran unleashed onto them, I don't think the US has any more dreams that it can militarily defeat China in Asia. Trump's just so mad right now because even though last year's PLA military parade hinted to him that he couldn't take on China, he didn't think that he'd get stopped at Iran. Final 3 bosses are Iran, Russia, China; he thought he could at least glimpse the final fight.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
Dude, what are you doing? Your "worst case scenerio" is that China can't do anything it's best at doing. If people are putting too much faith in Chinese producation, then you're putting way too much faith in America's military to even operate on a basic basis in Asia. You're putting way too much faith that Japan or any of these chihuahua countries can produce anything at all to affect China.

The way you write is like, "I think you're putting too much faith in the professional NBA teams. Let's say they can't jump when other people are bump into them before they take off. So now they're limited to their ground height, no dunks. Then maybe they can't shoot either because you know those hands up obscure their vision. Then they might not be able to run either cus there's too many people on the court blocking their paths. So now, worst case scenerio, every pro team in the NBA can't run, jump or shoot; me and my 4 friends could take the championships next season!

But honestly, it's kinda moot right now. After the beating that Iran unleashed onto them, I don't think the US has any more dreams that it can militarily defeat China in Asia. Trump's just so mad right now because even though last year's PLA military parade hinted to him that he couldn't take on China, he didn't think that he'd get stopped at Iran. Final 3 bosses are Iran, Russia, China; he thought he could at least glimpse the final fight.
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I don't think US is a big threat to fight China either. But I do think Japan, Taiwan, South Korea are big threats. These are delusional western worshippers and do hate China with a passion. I don't think they will accept Chinese dominance without a fight. The most likely scenario will likely be these countries trying to acquire nukes and China will be forced to fight a war to prevent them from getting nukes. I think the probability of China being forced to fight Japan is very high.

But recent Ukraine and Iran wars have shown none of the so called super powers have the numbers necessary to fight a proper conventional war with a competent opponent. When you compare with the past cold war and ww2 numbers, these countries used to maintain armies of several millions and had the arms stockpile to fight an attritional war.

But I think US success in the gulf war in 1991 had a very negative effect, it made countries believe they dont need to maintain big number of troops or weapons to fight war anymore. They thought technology and air power is sufficient to victory.

China also fell victim to that and rapidly reduced its armed force numbers and also reduced weapons stockpile, focusing on quality instead of quantity.

I think modern warfare is again becoming more about attrition. Drones and missiles have leveled the playing field. Now you dont need air superiority to cause massive damage to your enemies. And small countries can again fight against big power using drones and missiles.

China cannot expect to fight a war in the pacific and expect to win easily even if they achieve air dominance. They will face mass drone and missiles strikes and will likely see its strategic factories, radars and other installations destroyed.

Yes, they can also inflict this damage to its enemies. But that is not the point. The point is China cannot gain dominance without massive losses and that will make Chinese leaders reluctant to use force, and thus they will not be able to gain dominance.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
I don't think US is a big threat to fight China either. But I do think Japan, Taiwan, South Korea are big threats. These are delusional western worshippers and do hate China with a passion. I don't think they will accept Chinese dominance without a fight. The most likely scenario will likely be these countries trying to acquire nukes and China will be forced to fight a war to prevent them from getting nukes. I think the probability of China being forced to fight Japan is very high.

But recent Ukraine and Iran wars have shown none of the so called super powers have the numbers necessary to fight a proper conventional war with a competent opponent. When you compare with the past cold war and ww2 numbers, these countries used to maintain armies of several millions and had the arms stockpile to fight an attritional war.

But I think US success in the gulf war in 1991 had a very negative effect, it made countries believe they dont need to maintain big number of troops or weapons to fight war anymore. They thought technology and air power is sufficient to victory.

China also fell victim to that and rapidly reduced its armed force numbers and also reduced weapons stockpile, focusing on quality instead of quantity.

I think modern warfare is again becoming more about attrition. Drones and missiles have leveled the playing field. Now you dont need air superiority to cause massive damage to your enemies. And small countries can again fight against big power using drones and missiles.

China cannot expect to fight a war in the pacific and expect to win easily even if they achieve air dominance. They will face mass drone and missiles strikes and will likely see its strategic factories, radars and other installations destroyed.

Yes, they can also inflict this damage to its enemies. But that is not the point. The point is China cannot gain dominance without massive losses and that will make Chinese leaders reluctant to use force, and thus they will not be able to gain dominance.
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First of all take South Koreans from the list, they already have enough issues with the North Koreans to completely deplete their arsenal to achieve nothing With China. That will leave them at the mercy of a NK invasion.

What I trying to tell you is that Anti Access Area Denial strategy has been part of China arsenal and military thinking for decades, while the US and their allies rely more a in complicated weapon systems to achieve dominance. of course now China has more symmetrical power, that doesn´t mean that decades of Asymmetrical warfare is no there. Now China has both, symmetrical and asymmetrical power.

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War is never easy but that doesn´t mean that stooges provoking China into a war is good idea. Just because China prefers a diplomatic solution to the territorial Issue don´t be mistaken that they wont use military force at any cost and time to achieve their objectives. They are willing to go to an attrition war if necessary.

The problem with Western delusional thinking is that they confuse restrain with weakness.
 
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