PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
You may not have tried, but as of last week ChatGPT couldn't turn water to wine, so I'm not too sure about AGI > Jesus. Maybe we'll get there eventually. Maybe DeepSeek can already do it. Hmm...



Does the RoCAF still intercept these sorties? I recall they stopped in 2019? because the aging airframes were crashing on takeoff.
Unless it is something big they usually are content with “tracking via surface to air”. If only non combat assets like reconnaissance, drones, etc. are involved they don’t even bother with that. That said, ROCAF pilots still waste a lot of valuable flight time scrambling intercepts. They can’t practice AAM live firing and EW on the island because there are always reconnaissance planes and ships nearby.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Why isn’t China taking advantage of the current US commitments in the Middle East to increase pressure around Taiwan?

A force buildup would force the US to either recommit to East Asia, or give the PLA an opportunity to show the US is MIA. (Perhaps by doing a trial run of a blockade, or by taking an island.)
Seeing America's recent performance, China feels like it would be a cheap shot to add more to their plate now. With China's rise and new confidence, America has become the kind of enemy whom China would give a Sensu bean to before we fought them.
 

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
Why isn’t China taking advantage of the current US commitments in the Middle East to increase pressure around Taiwan?

A force buildup would force the US to either recommit to East Asia, or give the PLA an opportunity to show the US is MIA. (Perhaps by doing a trial run of a blockade, or by taking an island.)

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Taiwan's unique characteristics and problems remain unchanged: it is a small island, 150 kilometers east to west and 350 kilometers north to south, with almost all its assets facing the mainland. The experiences of Russia-Ukraine, and Iran can be learned from and used as a cautionary tale, but the underlying circumstances are different.

The 200-kilometer-wide strait poses a challenge to the PLA, but also means that when its airspace is covered by early warning aircraft, the PLA has sufficient response time.
The problem with Taiwan. They don´t have any kind of strategic depth. So close to China and so small that is just a sitting duck. The Ukrainians do have strategic depth, the Russians cannot close the Baltic states borders, if they would be able to do that they would had win the war already. So is Iran, the country is massive that even a big power like the US have trouble finding stuff there. China have demonstrated that can surround the island in a few hours, even in 1996 was capable of doing that. The only thing in Taiwan that could be seen as advantage is the is mountainous but the island is so small, so close to China and the issue has been for so long that China already know were everything is either by satellites and their own people imbedded inside the Taiwan military. And sadly for the Island and the people living there, different from Russia and the US who´s goals are mostly tactical, with Russia mostly want to get the Donbass region and US-Israel regime change in Iran. China goals are strategic and they are NOT going to stop once the war started and pretty much like the Iranians they have been preparing decades for that event. The best case scenario for the people in that Island is a short war, is over and they go back to their "normal" life in a week or two. The worst the can happen to the people in that Island is long protracted war were they go from having one of the best standard of living in Asia to absolute misery. They Stooges in the US and other lapdogs they don´t care about the people there as much as they care of toilet paper, they don´t care if a million people died and the Island is completely destroyed. They are just useful idiots.
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
The Stooges in the US and other lapdogs they don´t care about the people there as much as they care of toilet paper, they don´t care if a million people died and the Island is completely destroyed. They are just useful idiots.
If the killing of over 100 schoolgirls while screaming "WE'RE HELPING YOUR PEOPLE" didn't make that obvious, nothing can...
 

00CuriousObserver

Senior Member
Registered Member
The CPC Central Committee and General Secretary Xi Jinping Welcome and Invite Chinese Nationalist Party Chair Zheng Liwen to Visit

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 30: Song Tao, director of the Taiwan Work Office of the CPC Central Committee, said on March 30 that since taking office, Chinese Nationalist Party Chair Zheng Liwen has repeatedly expressed a desire to visit the mainland. In order to promote the peaceful development of relations between the CPC and the Chinese Nationalist Party, and of cross-Strait relations, I am authorized to announce that the CPC Central Committee and General Secretary Xi Jinping welcome and invite Chair Zheng Liwen to lead a Chinese Nationalist Party delegation on a visit to Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing from April 7 to 12.

Song Tao said that we will communicate with the Chinese Nationalist Party side regarding Chair Zheng Liwen’s visit and make proper arrangements.

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