PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Taiwan's unique characteristics and problems remain unchanged: it is a small island, 150 kilometers east to west and 350 kilometers north to south, with almost all its assets facing the mainland. The experiences of Russia-Ukraine, and Iran can be learned from and used as a cautionary tale, but the underlying circumstances are different.

The 200-kilometer-wide strait poses a challenge to the PLA, but also means that when its airspace is covered by early warning aircraft, the PLA has sufficient response time.
 
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bsdnf

Senior Member
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Actually, regarding the US military's amphibious assault capabilities, something counterintuitive is that the US has a standing amphibious assault force deployed in Northeast Asia, and coincidentally, the planned landing site is also Taiwan.

(This is not a coincidence).

In short, the US has a plan to launch a powerful landing on eastern Taiwan, supported by two carrier strike groups. Under this plan, the US would clear out the PLA's naval and air forces in eastern Taiwan, then, under the cover of carriers and bombers, severely damage the PLA's forces there. Afterwards, several US amphibious assault units (MEUs) and airborne IBCTs would conduct amphibious landings and airborne assaults in places like Taitung, Yilan, and Lanlien to clear out the remaining PLA forces, rebuild airports and ports, establish contact with the Taiwanese military, and create a supply line between Taitung and Okinawa, laying the foundation for a counter-offensive in western Taiwan.

I haven't discussed the feasibility of this plan with you; I'm just telling you it exists.

Therefore, in the long term, the US's best-prepared amphibious ready groups and airborne IBCTs are deployed in the Pacific. Trump's move of the Tripoli ARG in the Pacific is essentially transferring troops originally planned for a Kamikaze beach assault in the Taitung region to the Middle East. Their combat readiness and personnel quality are among the best of the four classes, making them capable of executing Trump's Persian Gulf beach assault plan.

What if they get wiped out by the Iranians?

No problem. They can use the mass casualties of the Marines as evidence that a PLA's breach landing would also result in mass casualties—that's one victory.
Lmao

The fact that the US military could conduct a beach assault demonstrates that the Marines possessed the capability to do so even under PLA blockade—this is a victory.

The fact that the Marines were wiped out after their beach assault indicates that PLA beach assaults would also be unsuccessful—this is a victory.

The fact that the US military could not conduct a beach assault demonstrates that the PLA could not do so either—this is a victory.

The US military has won by too much.
 
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Luke Warmwar

New Member
Registered Member
Why isn’t China taking advantage of the current US commitments in the Middle East to increase pressure around Taiwan?

A force buildup would force the US to either recommit to East Asia, or give the PLA an opportunity to show the US is MIA. (Perhaps by doing a trial run of a blockade, or by taking an island.)
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
Why isn’t China taking advantage of the current US commitments in the Middle East to increase pressure around Taiwan?

A force buildup would force the US to either recommit to East Asia, or give the PLA an opportunity to show the US is MIA. (Perhaps by doing a trial run of a blockade, or by taking an island.)
They are doing around 20-30 aerial sorties a day. It’s just that people are so used to it post Pelosi that no one is reacting.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
They are doing around 20-30 aerial sorties a day. It’s just that people are so used to it post Pelosi that no one is reacting.
also, I dont really think US can fight China on TW anymore

Ukraine war was supposed to knock Russia out so US can fight China

Iran war was supposed to be a quick victory and cut off China's energy

both have backfired

and Covid too
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
also, I dont really think US can fight China on TW anymore

Ukraine war was supposed to knock Russia out so US can fight China

Iran war was supposed to be a quick victory and cut off China's energy

both have backfired

and Covid too
You have to keep in mind that the ruling class follow a Bronze Age death cult. There is a very real chance of them going Gotterdamerung with the Cold War nuclear stockpile in a misguided attempt to bring back Jesus.
 

valysre

Junior Member
Registered Member
AGI > Jesus

China just needs to solve hyperintelligence first

AI is the real God
You may not have tried, but as of last week ChatGPT couldn't turn water to wine, so I'm not too sure about AGI > Jesus. Maybe we'll get there eventually. Maybe DeepSeek can already do it. Hmm...


They are doing around 20-30 aerial sorties a day. It’s just that people are so used to it post Pelosi that no one is reacting.
Does the RoCAF still intercept these sorties? I recall they stopped in 2019? because the aging airframes were crashing on takeoff.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Taiwan's unique characteristics and problems remain unchanged: it is a small island, 150 kilometers east to west and 350 kilometers north to south, with almost all its assets facing the mainland. The experiences of Russia-Ukraine, and Iran can be learned from and used as a cautionary tale, but the underlying circumstances are different.

The 200-kilometer-wide strait poses a challenge to the PLA, but also means that when its airspace is covered by early warning aircraft, the PLA has sufficient response time.
but note this - the Persian Gulf is about as wide as the Taiwan Strait. So the Iranian missile and air strategy is analogous.

imagine if the GCC but without Saudi Arabia, fought 5 Irans and 2 Russias simultaneously, from Iran's location. That's roughly the power balance of China vs. Taiwan.
 
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