CHAMP, HiJENKS?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Given that the Chinese Air Force would have continuous AWACs coverage over all of Taiwan, they should be able to detect the launch of any opposing drones and then track them continuously.
The Chinese military should also be able to flood the airspace over Taiwan with its own drone swarms continuosly, so it won't be possible for Taiwan to launch large swarms.
And to counter any drones that are launched, helicopters with $20K APKWS rockets seem to be a workable solution for slower targets, and I see an Apache can carry 76 APKWS rockets at a time.
EDIT. I also notice F-16s are now flying with 42 APKWS rockets as well
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Microwave is not EMP. You can make non-nuc EMPs by blowing off an energized coil, but I wouldn't call it powerful enough.
Even if Taiwan bought more smaller, more survivable, low-altitude SAMs, it doesn't help.
China should be able to flood Taiwanese airspace with many more drones, aircraft and missiles.
Nothing they buy would actually work, but they can have various levels of effect before going down. The current inventory is pointing towards having near 0 effect.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It’s ridiculous to compare Ukraine or Iran to Taiwan. Taiwan doesn’t have the geographical size of either and is an island far from all possible sources of supply.
China is the world’s factory. Chinese industrial output makes Iran feel like a garage operation in both scale and sophistication. If needs be, China can make more drones and missiles than Taiwan can make bullets.
If the proverbial balloon goes up, the PLA alpha strike alone could potentially end the fight with its opening salvo given how slowly RoC forces gets out of bed.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the PLA can have every square km of the island covered by multiple UCAVs 24/7 with plenty of mobile reserves and manned jets as QRF that any ambushes against those drones will be quickly engaged by overwhelming might in quick order that in a war of attrition, the PLA will trade extremely favourably using unmanned platforms against manned assets on the ground.
Any sort of military movement or massing is highly likely to draw down near immediate precision strikes.
To be frank, the outcome of the war is already beyond doubt. The only question is the cost.
China is the world’s factory. Chinese industrial output makes Iran feel like a garage operation in both scale and sophistication. If needs be, China can make more drones and missiles than Taiwan can make bullets.
If the proverbial balloon goes up, the PLA alpha strike alone could potentially end the fight with its opening salvo given how slowly RoC forces gets out of bed.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the PLA can have every square km of the island covered by multiple UCAVs 24/7 with plenty of mobile reserves and manned jets as QRF that any ambushes against those drones will be quickly engaged by overwhelming might in quick order that in a war of attrition, the PLA will trade extremely favourably using unmanned platforms against manned assets on the ground.
Any sort of military movement or massing is highly likely to draw down near immediate precision strikes.
To be frank, the outcome of the war is already beyond doubt. The only question is the cost.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
If the US is already running out of missiles just on Iran, what does it say about the US’s allies in Asia who always brag about the American missiles they have? Iran destroyed what I read was a billion dollar radar system with one of its Shaheed drones. Taiwan bought a billion dollar radar system from the US… I read also that there were huge anti-American protests going on in the Philippines. Every US ally in Asia should be worried about how it will be so easy to overwhelm them.
China being the equivalent of 1000 Irans is too much.
On terms of manufacturing and GDP, it's like 50-60x.
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I think a better comparison would be with the USA.
In terms of overall manufacturing output, the UN figures show China being twice the size of the USA.
And from the latest price surveys in China, it does look like actual economic output is also twice the size.
PAVE PAWS stands zero chance, neither does FPS-117. Both seem like stationary DD form 200s, its frankly comical. TPS-117/TPS-77/78 have at least the option of maneuver but nothing's stopping them from becoming paperwork in the first wave of strikes. I feel these systems provide some feeling of safety.
Even if PAVE PAWS were still standing the compressed warning lead times given the short travel distances for standoff munitions involved basically make it useless heh.