PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Nevermore

Nevermore

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zhangjim said:
I missed some things. I don't know if the things I want to share were mentioned in the forum. But I don't think there is any relevant content under this topic.
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The length of the video is a bit annoying, and it's an AI translation, with no subtitles.
This TV program interviewed retired generals of the JSDF, so the program has a strong political propaganda color. They call it the 'dawn of the new era'
I don't want to translate other nonsense because they are all political propaganda based on supporting the policies of the ruling party and support for the Prime Minister. For them, strengthening the military through "defense" is naturally a good thing.
The most astonishing part is the following:
1、 There is no clear provision that Japan can‘t have（me：really？） aircraft carriers, ICBM and strategic bombers.
2、The ability to take preemptive action（attack） is necessary. Like Israel and the United States bombing Iran.
3、Russia's nuclear threat violates the principle of nuclear non-proliferation, therefore Japan should negotiate with the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan, and Japan should be granted the authority to decide whether to use (US) nuclear weapons.
View attachment 165977
——They seem to want to rebuild the island fortresses（absolute zone of national defense）from the World War II era.


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View attachment 165978
——It has to be said that the civilian scholars are more radical than the military.
His idea is in wartime, the JMSDF will enter the "dangerous area" in the name of evacuate their citizens. They will explicitly warn China not to obstruct. If their "humanitarian assistance" is blocked, it is an attack on Japan. And PLA as “inexperienced army' may pull the trigger first.
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To actually believe that provoking a superpower with ten times our military strength could bring peace—the Japanese have learned nothing in this century. This also serves as a stark reminder of how utterly failed the mindless populism bred by democratic systems truly is.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
1、 There is no clear provision that Japan can‘t have（me：really？） aircraft carriers, ICBM and strategic bombers.
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Aircraft Carriers - They already have the Izumos which very much embodies literally everything being CVs apart from their designation.

ICBM and Strategic Bombers - If they do ever get any to begin with, I'd wager that Beijing wouldn't even be the first one to freak out. Moscow and Washington DC would be.

In addition, bold of the Jai Sushis to believe that they can just develop strategic bombers when their only civilian jetliner program was dead before ever leaving the ground. The best they could ever get their hands on would be "hand-me-down" B-21s from the US (pun intended) - And that's going to come not before Australia does so.

Also, bold of the Jai Sushis to believe that DC would just see them developing ICBMs and shrugs "Yeah, alright, whatever".

zhangjim said:
2、The ability to take preemptive action（attack） is necessary. Like Israel and the United States bombing Iran.
Click to expand...

Ah. So the ghost of Showa never really dies.

If anything, I'd like to see how they would end up if they were to pull a Pearl on Qingdao. Most certainly having their JMSDF suffering the same fate as the IJN, and the JASDF suffering the same fate as the IJAAF and IJNAF.

zhangjim said:
3、Russia's nuclear threat violates the principle of nuclear non-proliferation, therefore Japan should negotiate with the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan, and Japan should be granted the authority to decide whether to use (US) nuclear weapons.
Click to expand...

Truly "the tail wagging the dog (and its master)" move right there lmfao.

zhangjim said:
It has to be said that the civilian scholars are more radical than the military.
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Of course. Because they aren't the ones to send people to do the actual dying. Hell, they aren't even going to be the ones that would be sent to do the actual dying either.

zhangjim said:
His idea is in wartime, the JMSDF will enter the "dangerous area" in the name of evacuate their citizens. They will explicitly warn China not to obstruct. If their "humanitarian assistance" is blocked, it is an attack on Japan. And PLA as “inexperienced army' may pull the trigger first.
Click to expand...

So let me get this straight:

On one hand, the Jai Sushis are claiming that China is a blood-thirsty country which got engaged in multiple skirmishes and wars since 1949, whereas Japan is a peace-loving country that has never been involved in any lethal conflicts since 1945.

On the other hand, the Jai Sushis are claiming that the PLA is an "inexperienced army"?

Pretty amused by how their brains work (or, rather, if they still have brains that aren't harvested by the evil SeeSeePee).
 
KFX

KFX

Junior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Aircraft Carriers - They already have the Izumos which very much embodies literally everything being CVs apart from their designation.

ICBM and Strategic Bombers - If they do ever get any to begin with, I'd wager that Beijing wouldn't even be the first one to freak out. Moscow and Washington DC would be.

In addition, bold of the Jai Sushis to believe that they can just develop strategic bombers when their only civilian jetliner program was dead before ever leaving the ground. The best they could ever get their hands on would be "hand-me-down" B-21s from the US (pun intended) - And that's going to come not before Australia does so.

Also, bold of the Jai Sushis to believe that DC would just see them developing ICBMs and shrugs "Yeah, alright, whatever".



Ah. So the ghost of Showa never really dies.

If anything, I'd like to see how they would end up if they were to pull a Pearl on Qingdao. Most certainly having their JMSDF suffering the same fate as the IJN, and the JASDF suffering the same fate as the IJAAF and IJNAF.



Truly "the tail wagging the dog (and its master)" move right there lmfao.



Of course. Because they aren't the ones to send people to do the actual dying. Hell, they aren't even going to be the ones that would be sent to do the actual dying either.



So let me get this straight:

On one hand, the Jai Sushis are claiming that China is a blood-thirsty country which got engaged in multiple skirmishes and wars since 1949, whereas Japan is a peace-loving country that has never been involved in any lethal conflicts since 1945.

On the other hand, the Jai Sushis are claiming that the PLA is an "inexperienced army"?

Pretty amused by how their brains work (or, rather, if they still have brains that aren't harvested by the evil SeeSeePee).
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Very important to remember that Japan's defence build-up is driven by CCP and Russian militarism. From Japan and USA's perspecitve, Taiwan is like a cork that keeps the PLA bottled safely within the First Island Chain. If CCP were to go after Taiwan, they'll definitely need to contend with Japan. It's not so much that Japan/USA need to defeat China in a war, they just need to deter the CCP from starting something in the first place. The last thing they want is the PLAN/PLAAF operating into the western Pacific from the East Coast of Taiwan.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
KFX said:
Very important to remember that Japan's defence build-up is driven by CCP and Russian militarism. From Japan and USA's perspecitve, Taiwan is like a cork that keeps the PLA bottled safely within the First Island Chain. If CCP were to go after Taiwan, they'll definitely need to contend with Japan. It's not so much that Japan/USA need to defeat China in a war, they just need to deter the CCP from starting something in the first place. The last thing they want is the PLAN/PLAAF operating into the western Pacific from the East Coast of Taiwan.
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We’ve already reached a point where there really is no deterrence against China getting what it wants with Taiwan. Any consideration for regional security by countries in the Asia Pacific will have to operate under the assumption that Taiwan is more or less a settled question going forth in the 21st century. That’s just the hard power realities. If Japan or the US wants to test that proposition we can all find out of course, but in my estimation it would be a pretty foolish and wasteful exercise.
 
KFX

KFX

Junior Member
Registered Member
latenlazy said:
We’ve already reached a point where there really is no deterrence against China getting what it wants with Taiwan. Any consideration for regional security by countries in the Asia Pacific will have to operate under the assumption that Taiwan is more or less a settled question going forth in the 21st century. That’s just the hard power realities. If Japan or the US wants to test that proposition we can all find out of course, but in my estimation it would be a pretty foolish and wasteful exercise.
Click to expand...
The inevitability of Taiwan becoming part of the mainland is definitely a CCP narrative. As for strategy, one wonders about the top ranks of the PLA given Xi's corruption purges. How will this affect leadership and decision making if push comes to shove around Taiwan? PLA is working with decision command to speed up tactical leadership, but in a war will Beijing really allow this style of leadership? I'm sure the PLA has a very detailed strategy for Taiwan contingencies, but what would the execution look like? I'm not convinced that the CCP feels that it's leadership is up to the job.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
KFX said:
The inevitability of Taiwan becoming part of the mainland is definitely a CCP narrative. As for strategy, one wonders about the top ranks of the PLA given Xi's corruption purges. How will this affect leadership and decision making if push comes to shove around Taiwan? PLA is working with decision command to speed up tactical leadership, but in a war will Beijing really allow this style of leadership? I'm sure the PLA has a very detailed strategy for Taiwan contingencies, but what would the execution look like? I'm not convinced that the CCP feels that it's leadership is up to the job.
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It’s not a “narrative” when you have the hard power to realize the outcome. Xi purging old generals for new ones is not really the complication cope seekers make it out to be when you consider how much better equipped younger generals are to understand and manage the PLA’s new capabilities than older generals. Purges aren’t done blindly without consideration for institutional efficacy.
 
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