PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

It's useful to look at nuclear submarine construction as well

In recent years, Bohai shipyard built 2 brand new assembly buildings for submarines.

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Let's take the first submarine assembly building and assume a 9 month block assembly time (slightly faster than the fastest assembly time for a Virginia in peacetime).

That implies annual production capacity of 16 SSNs or 4 SSBN/SSGN-sized submarines (or any combination thereof).

This is far in excess of any possible peacetime requirement.

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Yet Bohai decided to build a second submarine assembly building, with roughly two-thirds of the capacity of the first building.

We haven't seen any civilian or non-submarines coming out of these buildings, so the space is not being used for other purposes.

So the only rational justification for the second assembly hall, is as emergency wartime-level production space in reserve.

If we take those 2 buildings together, there is space for 20 SSNs to be assembled simultaneously, which works out as 26.6 per year. At that rate, then every 2 years, the Chinese Navy would be adding the equivalent of the entire US Navy SSN fleet.

But of course, it would take some years to ramp up to this level.

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In addition, if this is the thinking about SSNs, then shouldn't there be corresponding emergency production "plans" for aircraft carriers, other surface warships and carrier-capable aircraft?

Very interesting article.

My personal opinion is, US is really desperate to draw up scenarios to draw JSDF troops into Taiwan contingency.

Phead128 said:

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Very interesting article.

My personal opinion is, US is really desperate to draw up scenarios to draw JSDF troops into Taiwan contingency.

Click to expand...

It makes sense, without Japanese personnel and bases the US insta-loses. With Japan, it's still (barely) possible that they manage to pull an acceptable outcome.

Trump Signs Law to Deepen U.S.-Taiwan Ties; Foreign Ministry Responds

【Global Times-Global Network Report, Reporter Xing Xiaojing】On the 3rd, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference. A Bloomberg reporter asked: President Trump has signed a law requiring the State Department to periodically review relations with Taiwan to deepen ties with the island. What is the Foreign Ministry's comment on this?
Lin Jian stated that China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and the Taiwan region of China. This position is consistent and unequivocal. The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests and the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations. The one-China principle is the political foundation of China-U.S. relations. The U.S. government explicitly committed in the Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China that the United States recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China. Within this framework, the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other non-official relations with the people of Taiwan.
Lin Jian stated that China urges the United States to earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués, exercise utmost caution in handling the Taiwan issue, cease official exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan, and refrain from sending any erroneous signals to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces.
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The United States has signed a bill concerning Taiwan at this sensitive time.