PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
There's always been a lot of talk like that but I doubt there's much actual appetite for war. Also, Japan is completely unready for war and I think the Japanese leadership is well aware of this.
Some scholars believe that this kind of speech is more like a "historical inertia". The support for these dangerous statements is the nostalgia for the old colonies (like a unrequited love), but these politicians have not seriously prepared for possible wars or anticipated the consequences of military intervention.
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Her live streaming excerpt does not have subtitles, so the audience needs a good level of Chinese proficiency.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Some scholars believe that this kind of speech is more like a "historical inertia". The support for these dangerous statements is the nostalgia for the old colonies (like a unrequited love), but these politicians have not seriously prepared for possible wars or anticipated the consequences of military intervention.
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Her live streaming excerpt does not have subtitles, so the audience needs a good level of Chinese proficiency.
What the Japanese peons think is irrelevant, it is what their elites think will determine the country's actions.
 

zlixOS

New Member
Registered Member
What the Japanese peons think is irrelevant, it is what their elites think will determine the country's actions.

Absolutely agree here. Statements from Indian Reddit about how the Chinese aren't ready to see the body bags coming home, and the same here but about Americans, come across to me as rather reductionist and dismissive. Who tf cares how willing you are to die for your country when you are given a rifle and told to get out of the trench and shoot or die. Politicians determine whether a nation is willing to enter war, and too how willing they are to sustain the casualties.

But regardless I have no qualms about Japan joining in on any war with China. More reason to bomb them.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
AIM-260, their answer to the PL-15, is confirmed as likely too expensive to use in large numbers:
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“Look at AMRAAM as your capacity weapon. … It’s the affordable” weapon, said Norman. JATM, on the other hand, will be the “kick-the-door-down, very expensive weapon.”

Given the late-90s export variant of the AMRAAM sells today for $3.5 million each when ordered in bulk quantities of at least ~1000 units, I wonder what the price of AIM-260 JATM will be. Given the 25+ year technology gap and the Raytheon quote above, I speculate it will sell for ~$15-25 million each. Given the OBBB includes funding for procurement expected to be partial prepayment for long lead time manufacturing inputs, I expect LRIP in 2026 to 2027, depending on delays by their suppliers.

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This link also seems to confirm AIM-174B is much too large to be held internally. So it's out of the question for use by F-22 or F-35. Maybe it will fit in B-21 and F-47 (maybe not even in F-47).
 
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