PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

More than half of mainland Chinese citizens oppose the use of force to unify with

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under any circumstances, according to a survey released on Wednesday.

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, designed jointly by the Atlanta-based Carter Center and Emory University, found that 55.1 per cent of respondents agreed or somewhat agreed with the statement that “the Taiwan problem should not be resolved using force under any circumstances”, while 24.5 per cent disagreed or somewhat disagreed. A fifth of respondents were neutral.

Despite results showing high opposition to the use of force, Wednesday’s survey also revealed that many Chinese may accept eventual military action.

Only 18.1 per cent of respondents said there was “no military action needed” when asked how long China should wait to resolve the Taiwan issue before using force.

Given the option of waiting for one, five, 10, 25 or more than 25 years, the most common response – selected by 33.5 per cent – was “within five years”.

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Luke Warmwar said:

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Quite an odd survey result. A slim majority oppose the use of force under any circumstances, but an overwhelming majority say that military action is needed, and a third say it needs to happen within five years.

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lcloo said:

I doubt the survey was done inside China. China will never allowed a US NGO and university to do that on Chinese soil.

Most likely the survey was done in USA. And this is thus a big flaw as these Chinese in USA do not represent the majority of Chinese on Mainland.

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Luke Warmwar said:

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Quite an odd survey result. A slim majority oppose the use of force under any circumstances, but an overwhelming majority say that military action is needed, and a third say it needs to happen within five years.

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manqiangrexue said:

"Atlanta-based Carter Center and Emory University," that's all I needed to see. They obviously tried to design the survey to make it look like the CCP doesn't have the support of Chinese citizens to militarily retake Taiwan but they had to fudge with the wording and parameters so much they ended up getting tangled up in thier own web. Ended up with, "Our results indicate that Chinese citizens do not support use of force over Taiwan but they do support use of military intervention."
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manqiangrexue said:

"Atlanta-based Carter Center and Emory University," that's all I needed to see. They obviously tried to design the survey to make it look like the CCP doesn't have the support of Chinese citizens to militarily retake Taiwan but they had to fudge with the wording and parameters so much they ended up getting tangled up in thier own web. Ended up with, "Our results indicate that Chinese citizens do not support use of force over Taiwan but they do support use of military intervention."
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manqiangrexue said:

Says it was an online study. That is basically impossible to do to any meaningful degree because site selection is a massive bias. Even then, they couldn't come up with a coherent conclusion.

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plawolf said:

So what you are telling is that only 50% of America’s paid bots and FLG nutcases opposed armed reunification? They couldn’t even keep their own minions in line online!

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RoastGooseHKer said:

Maybe the Chinese respondents hoped that the Lai Administration would eventually back down and seek a peaceful solution when he realises that the military/tech balance of power between China and Taiwan-US-Japan were so big that Taipei would have no choice but to seek a peaceful solution. I corroborate with the whole idea of winning without fighting. I think most Chinese would be absolutely fine with Taiwan maintaining permanent full autonomy (in trade, finance, participation in international organisations, FTAs, etc.) sans its own foreign policy and defence contrary to those of the PRC.

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