PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
I went to listen to the paid CHH again, while they made it clear Shilao-class BB with the triple 400mm gun turret is by no means a serious proposal, they are indeed aware of the fact that the 400mm supergun has abserd range. Shilao's crazy scenario has the BB and her strike group exit the first island chain and make a turn south, then the BB turns the turret to port and shells Guam, then followed with turning turret to starboard and shell targets on Taiwan's east coast. Such is its range.

Yankee also mentioned in a one off line that the supergun is at the moment mounted on a land based multi axial platform. The whole BB thing is because now that the gun exist people think it needs a platform worthy of it. BB is just Shilao's idea on how to use it to it's full potential.

The distance between Taiwan's east coast and Guam is about 2700 kilometers, which would mean a firing radius of around 1350 kilometers. But eh, let's take the more conservative 1200 kilometers of firing range.

Here's what the firing radius for this purported land-based 400mm supergun looks like:

1200kmgun1.png 1200kmgun2.png
1200kmgun3.png

- Only by stationing the supergun close to Vladivostok can much of the Japanese home islands (and Tokyo metro area in particular) to be covered. So, not quite ideal.
- By stationing the supergun at the tip of Shandong Peninsula, the entire Ryukyu island chain can be reliably covered, though barely up to Kobe to the east.
- By stationing anywhere in central/southern China, the entirety of Taiwan is easily within reach of the supergun.
- By stationing at Hainan, the most the supergun can reach would be the northern outskirts of Manila metro area.
- By stationing in eastern Tibet, the entirety of the eastern and northeastern India (including Kolkata) can be covered by the supergun.
- By stationing in western Xinjiang, the Delhi metro area is easily within the supergun's reach.

As can be seen, the supergun would excel everywhere with the exception of bombarding the Japanese home islands, especially the major metro regions on the eastern seaboard of Japan (which requires the supergun to be stationed relatively close to the Sea of Japan) + the Luzon archipelago. But if the supergun's range can be raised to 1300-1500 kilometers, then this issue can be resolved.

However, should this gun be first made viable for procurement and deployment by the PLAGF (and its effective strike range being just as absurd as claimed), and that the dimension of the overall system can be keep from reaching improbable realms - Then personally, I believe that having a ship-based variant of this supergun could just be equally as useful.

Here's what the firing radius of the hypothetical ship-based 400mm supergun looks like:

1200kmgun4.png 1200kmgun5.png

- By sailing at 3/5th the way between Taiwan and Guam, the entirety of the Mariana Islands and Palau can be covered by the supergun.
- By sailing somewhere in between Aogashima and Ogasawara Islands, the entirety of the Japanese home islands (except Hokkaido) is within coverage of the supergun.
- By sailing between Shanghai and Jeju, the entirety of the Korean Peninsular and Taiwan can be reliably covered by the railgun.
- By sailing in the middle of the South China Sea, most of the Philippines can be reached by the railgun.
- By sailing somewhere in the Gulf of Thailand, the railgun can comfortably reach all of the Andaman Islands, Malacca Strait and Singapore.

But of course, all of the above are merely working on claims and hypotheticals.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I mean they are probably well past that stage if the rumours from Ayi are true.

It makes sense to build at least one for testing.

At a minimum, they can test for:

1. Standard, unpowered, GPS guided artillery rounds. Low cost, but very short-ranged
2. Sabot type munitions, optimised for shorter Taiwan ranges. These should still be pretty low cost.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
The whole bit with Shilao's battleship scenario, with translation:
扬基: 而且以我们所知的这门炮的射程可以实现施佬刚发的另外一个颠
Yankee: In addition, according to what we've heard about the range of this gun, it can support the other wild idea from Shilao

扬基: 说这个船到时候在哪开呢?你说哪个岛?
Yankee: Where did you say this ship was going to be? Which island?

施佬: 我当时是那样说的,这个船啊,和编队一起驶出第一岛链,然后到了西太平洋之上。在日本的冲之鸟礁的西南方向由北望南航行。
Shilao: So as I was saying at the time. This ship, along with her flotilla will sail past the First Island Chain together and enter the Western Pacific. Then somewhere South-west of Japan's Okinotori Island it will sail from north to south.

施佬: 然后这个时候舰上开始传来一种大舰巨炮时代非常典型的战斗警报:“左舷交战准备!”
Shilao: Then in that moment, a battle stations alarm straight from the age of battleships rings "enemy contact, port quarter!"

施佬: 大家注意啊这船由北望南航行。这时候你听“左舷交战准备!“ 然后左舷交战,炮塔呃呃呃全转到左舷,咚咚咚一打把关岛炸了
Shilao: Remember guys the ship is going in a southernly direction. You hear "enemy contact, port quarter!" Then enemy is engaged to the port side. All the turrets rumble and turn to port, then bang bang bang and Guam is bombarded.

扬基:炸没了
Yankee: Wiped out

施佬: 然后又传来战斗警报:“右舷交战准备!” 然后吱一打,向右舷,
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什么的没了
Shilao: Then another alarm sounds "enemy contact, starboard quarter!" All the turrets turn and fire to the starboard and Chihhang Air Base is gone.

扬基: 哎你看,北京特快
Yankee: So you see, Beijing Express.

"This gun" unambiguously refers to the 400mm gun. Yankee even had a slip of tongue immediately before this bit where he called it the 40mm gun which the other two corrected him to be 40cm instead.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
One of the trick I see people propose is if your supergun only ever fires guided rounds due to its extreme range, than there is no reason it needs to be rifled like traditional artillery. Using smoothbore like a giant version of a tank gun comes with lots of advantages like suitability to fire long skinny subcalibre projectiles with a sabot. The long skinny round is then basically a shortened MRLS rocket that got a 900m/s+ boost from the start rather than accelerate from 0m/s under its own rocket power. You then apply HGV tech to the tip and you're going to get crazy range out of it.

The question is whether a 900 m/s initial boost is worth it?
 

pevade

Junior Member
Registered Member
The whole bit with Shilao's battleship scenario, with translation:


"This gun" unambiguously refers to the 400mm gun. Yankee even had a slip of tongue immediately before this bit where he called it the 40mm gun which the other two corrected him to be 40cm instead.
I'm very skeptical of this entire "supergun" concept. First it will run into chamber pressure issues (gunpowder) if you want to lob such large and heavy rounds at long ranges.
Assuming you go with railgun like acceleration, the weakness will be the infrastructure required to power it.
I still see no practical advantage over ye olde GMLRS.
Not to mention, making the gun mobile is going to be very difficult.

Besides 400mm howitzers and naval guns have been built before ex:
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At this 400mm caliber, a ~1000kg projectile will go around 15-20km with a muzzle velocity of ~740m/s.
So how on earth is the one from a 400mm supergun supposed to go this absurd 1200km?!?

Even assuming this is some kind of hybrid rocket engined round, we know that the Fire Dragon 480 (which is a 750mm diameter ballistic missile with warhead of 480kg) has a range of 500KM or so. So where on earth is the energy for the remaining 700km coming from? The initial gunpowder charge? The chamber pressures would be absurd. Not to mention the structural reinforcement required to make sure the projectile doesn't you know....explode from the absurd chamber pressure.

Even the mighty Schwerer Gustav which had a 800mm barrel only managed a range of 47km max with a 7000kg projectile.

This one picture from wikipedia should make it clear the supergun concept is dead.
1767371891098.png
Schwerer Gustav (black) compared to an
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launcher (red) (which launches projectiles of similar size and range) with human figures for scale

The reality is that air density is much higher at lower altitude, therefore you get more drag. That and the fact that any projectile that has to be fired must be first reinforced to handle the initial acceleration which will increase mass.

There are just too many impractical issues with this entire concept that I think this is just a joke.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm very skeptical of this entire "supergun" concept. First it will run into chamber pressure issues (gunpowder) if you want to lob such large and heavy rounds at long ranges.
Assuming you go with railgun like acceleration, the weakness will be the infrastructure required to power it.
I still see no practical advantage over ye olde GMLRS.
Not to mention, making the gun mobile is going to be very difficult.

Not a very mobile piece of equipment either IMO. I just don't see any advantage over a tactical rocket with a road mobile TEL, and China has plenty of those.
 

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
The distance between Taiwan's east coast and Guam is about 2700 kilometers, which would mean a firing radius of around 1350 kilometers. But eh, let's take the more conservative 1200 kilometers of firing range.

Here's what the firing radius for this purported land-based 400mm supergun looks like:

View attachment 167416 View attachment 167417
View attachment 167418

- Only by stationing the supergun close to Vladivostok can much of the Japanese home islands (and Tokyo metro area in particular) to be covered. So, not quite ideal.
- By stationing the supergun at the tip of Shandong Peninsula, the entire Ryukyu island chain can be reliably covered, though barely up to Kobe to the east.
- By stationing anywhere in central/southern China, the entirety of Taiwan is easily within reach of the supergun.
- By stationing at Hainan, the most the supergun can reach would be the northern outskirts of Manila metro area.
- By stationing in eastern Tibet, the entirety of the eastern and northeastern India (including Kolkata) can be covered by the supergun.
- By stationing in western Xinjiang, the Delhi metro area is easily within the supergun's reach.

As can be seen, the supergun would excel everywhere with the exception of bombarding the Japanese home islands, especially the major metro regions on the eastern seaboard of Japan (which requires the supergun to be stationed relatively close to the Sea of Japan) + the Luzon archipelago. But if the supergun's range can be raised to 1300-1500 kilometers, then this issue can be resolved.

However, should this gun be first made viable for procurement and deployment by the PLAGF (and its effective strike range being just as absurd as claimed), and that the dimension of the overall system can be keep from reaching improbable realms - Then personally, I believe that having a ship-based variant of this supergun could just be equally as useful.

Here's what the firing radius of the hypothetical ship-based 400mm supergun looks like:

View attachment 167420 View attachment 167421

- By sailing at 3/5th the way between Taiwan and Guam, the entirety of the Mariana Islands and Palau can be covered by the supergun.
- By sailing somewhere in between Aogashima and Ogasawara Islands, the entirety of the Japanese home islands (except Hokkaido) is within coverage of the supergun.
- By sailing between Shanghai and Jeju, the entirety of the Korean Peninsular and Taiwan can be reliably covered by the railgun.
- By sailing in the middle of the South China Sea, most of the Philippines can be reached by the railgun.
- By sailing somewhere in the Gulf of Thailand, the railgun can comfortably reach all of the Andaman Islands, Malacca Strait and Singapore.

But of course, all of the above are merely working on claims and hypotheticals.

Let's stipulate for the sake of argument that this gun works, it sends shells 1200km downrange, and it actually enters service. Even given those rather generous assumptions, it seems exceptionally likely that the gun will be both very large and very expensive. Perhaps outright immobile, or perhaps rail-mobile. But presumably, its ammunition is so cheap as to make the upfront investment worthwhile w.r.t. provisioning sustained fire support. Fair enough.

In that case, I would expect the gun(s) to be stationed well inland, say 500km or so. That would allow plenty of range to bombard say, Taiwan, while remaining largely untouchable to enemy counterstrikes. One imagines a hardened underground complex carved into a mountain, which can shrug off missile barrages and would require some kind of MOP to deal significant damage. But good luck sending a B-2 to fly 500km inland of mainland China. I can see how such a use case for a super gun would work out, maybe kinda sorta, if I squint hard in dim lighting.
 

Hitomi

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm very skeptical of this entire "supergun" concept. First it will run into chamber pressure issues (gunpowder) if you want to lob such large and heavy rounds at long ranges.
Assuming you go with railgun like acceleration, the weakness will be the infrastructure required to power it.
I still see no practical advantage over ye olde GMLRS.
Not to mention, making the gun mobile is going to be very difficult.

Besides 400mm howitzers and naval guns have been built before ex:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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At this 400mm caliber, a ~1000kg projectile will go around 15-20km with a muzzle velocity of ~740m/s.
So how on earth is the one from a 400mm supergun supposed to go this absurd 1200km?!?

Even assuming this is some kind of hybrid rocket engined round, we know that the Fire Dragon 480 (which is a 750mm diameter ballistic missile with warhead of 480kg) has a range of 500KM or so. So where on earth is the energy for the remaining 700km coming from? The initial gunpowder charge? The chamber pressures would be absurd. Not to mention the structural reinforcement required to make sure the projectile doesn't you know....explode from the absurd chamber pressure.

Even the mighty Schwerer Gustav which had a 800mm barrel only managed a range of 47km max with a 7000kg projectile.

This one picture from wikipedia should make it clear the supergun concept is dead.
View attachment 167430
Schwerer Gustav (black) compared to an
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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launcher (red) (which launches projectiles of similar size and range) with human figures for scale

The reality is that air density is much higher at lower altitude, therefore you get more drag. That and the fact that any projectile that has to be fired must be first reinforced to handle the initial acceleration which will increase mass.

There are just too many impractical issues with this entire concept that I think this is just a joke.
The supergun probably won't have the characteristics of a standard gun at all and more akin to a hypersonic glider launcher. It might have explosive charges to give the projectile some initial acceleration (but probably nothing as large as the bags used on the battleships) so that the rail/coilgun segment does not need to be excessively long.

In addition, all the guns you mentioned have not incorporated modern artillery technologies that have helped 155mm rounds attain the ranges of the Schwerer Gustav. A modern Schwerer Gustav would probably double or even close to tripling its range sans the cost of building such a weapon again.

I think this project will still be a good study for a future mass driver system even if it does not end up delivering explosive payloads to places on earth and commercial viability would easily tip the financial scales in the weapon's favour.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
I thought 侠炮 Xia (Zhangyou Xia) Cannon is just a meme
Is Zhang Youxia known to be a fan of big guns?

Anyway under Ayi's thread from yesterday some people are saying Yankee said this supergun has already been captured on satellite photo last year, although I listened to the last 20 minutes of the paid CHH just now again and I don't hear him saying that anywhere in those 20 minutes. Someone else offered this photo as the potential gun in question:
94ce3969ly1i8wh7m5964j20xb0ghdi1.jpg
 
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