PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Ringsword

Senior Member
Registered Member
Do you know under what circumstances a nuclear war would break out?
The answer is that a nuclear war would only break out if one is assured of protection from a nuclear attack. Therefore, the "Golden Dome Project" was created for this very reason.
Trump is trying to convey to Americans the idea that they are immune to the threat of nuclear war, a belief that will lead some warmongers to take risky actions, using this radical approach to pressure China. China simply displayed a large number of hypersonic missiles and ballistic missiles with global reach to easily shatter Trump's illusions.
When facing death, many things can be given up. Power, status, money, and wealth are fleeting. Living a decent life is what most people choose.
In virtually every major conflict North America was never touched and its civilian population especially its rich/powerful elites ,but the now real possibility of losing everything and actually suffering boggles their minds(even during the USA/SU cold war didn't have this aspect of evident economic/social decline as now) and this stark reality may just induce some common sense into the westoids not to accept defeat but to a accept a fairer ,multipolar world with peaceable,acceptable,mutually beneficial coexistence for all.Can it be that hard?
 
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萌萌与猫猫

New Member
Registered Member
A nuclear arsenal that ensures mutual destruction is sufficient; having more is meaningless and would waste excessive resources on nuclear weapon maintenance. Russia currently spends over half of its military budget on nuclear weapon maintenance, contributing to its slow military development.
Thus, after ensuring the ability to achieve mutual destruction, the focus should be on building a comprehensive ballistic missile defense system. This will ensure your invincibility.
I believe this topic should consider what mutual assured destruction tactics truly entail. Because the actual number of nuclear warheads required to literally annihilate a nation far exceeds most people's imagination. If we're merely discussing how to win a nuclear war, it becomes extremely difficult to determine precisely how many warheads would guarantee victory. We'd likely have to factor in the enemy's nuclear arsenal and delivery systems. At least for now, the number of warheads is woefully inadequate, especially considering China's significant geostrategic disadvantages. U.S. SSBNs can approach launch positions and carry a full complement of 14 Trident D5 warheads. In contrast, China's JL-3 missile, while potentially comparable in performance, can only deliver a single warhead against U.S. silo targets tens of thousands of kilometers away. This disparity compels China to maintain a larger nuclear arsenal.
 

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
Complete Destruction of US and all its allies will likely require 5k plus warheads. So, China has long way to go before achieving that. Destroying one full city the size of new york will require atleast ten 500KT warheads. US has 346 cities with 100k population and most of these cities are much more spread out than other countries. It will take alot of warheads.

China probably only needs enough for the US and their non-European allies. Once the threshold is reached, the US will most likely launch against Russia. The Americans are not going to entertain the idea of Russia emerging out of a post nuclear war as a potential great power. Triggering the Russians to retaliate on NATO.
 

jiajia99

Junior Member
Registered Member
Make sure the destruction is not the carpet bombing you imagine. China is not a demon that wants to kill everyone!
Pretty sure at the rate things are going, the USA will destroy itself well before China has to fire a single nuke. Also, the nukes in the USA has a use by date and given how they really suck when it comes to the things that matter (maintenance and upgrades, both of which are lacking), whose to say if the nuclear stockpile of the USA has been already compromised long ago. It’s only a matter of time before the bluff is called and given the current win rate, the USA is bound to lose yet again. Also I do wonder, given how hush hush things are, I wonder, is Fort Knox already empty?
 

Squadson

New Member
Registered Member
I would rather believe there will be some hot hypersonic weapon ETF, than think that a "large number of hypersonic weapons" can be achieved.

For demographic trends, using linear thinking to predict the population structure in 2035 or 2050 implies an expectation of peace and stability for the coming decades. Given the current situation, this is a rather bold assumption.
 

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
ABM interceptors are expensive, but not even a rounding error compared to the value of the cities they can save. Not to mention the human lives they will save.

Chinese manufacturing capabilities are orders of magnitude greater than America’s overall. If an all out arms race breaks out, I would not bet against China being able to outbuild American ICBMs dozens or even hundreds to one with interceptors. Especially not with the way the Sentinel programme has been performing thus far.

Besides, the key to breaking MAD isn’t about Golden Dome, but rather with Star Wars space based sensors and weapons networks. It’s far easier to shoot ICBMs from above as they are ascending then trying to shoot them down from below as they are descended.

Both sides are quietly but steadily gearing up all the building blocks for Star Wars. But neither side as yet want to trigger the space arms race by openly deploying weapons in space. But both are preparing for it by massively expanding their launch capability so that when the day comes, they can launch their network faster than the other side and win the key initiative. But is a waste of time to gain the first mover advantage in orbit if you are not prepare to use that to proactively prevent opfor from getting their own network up. As otherwise they will just put their own network up in response and level the playing field again.

Start Wars is basically an endgame move where you present your opponent with a serious use it or lose it dilemma with regards to their nuclear strike capabilities if it looks like you are able to make it a reality. It’s going way beyond achieving MAD and showing the other side you are not interested in a stalemate and wants to go for all the marbles. You don’t make that move unless you are prepared to glass the other side from coast to coast. We are not there yet, but we are heading that way awfully rapidly.

Trying for a MAD-breaker is dumb. It's dumb when people push for Golden Dome to do it, and it's dumb for China to try as well. As soon as you start deploying it, the other guy will just set off a couple dozen nukes in the upper atmosphere and fry every satellite in orbit. The resulting Van Allen belt will ensure any replacements get fried too. So the end result is simply no satellites of any kind for anyone. Plus a few percentage points added to global cancer statistics.

Perfect example of a lose-lose scenario.
 
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