PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Phead128 said:

has this been tried in Ukraine (FPV drones clearing 10km of enemy infantry) and how fast is this progress? If it takes weeks or months, then China shouldn't bother with AR. Taking and securing a beachhead should be a quick (hours, max days), not like Ukraine-style slogfest (weeks, months).

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i have read all your comments. somehow agreed with your assessment. without boots on the ground AR won't achieve.

but the fundamental difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is, Total Area.. so i think air strikes, missiles, drones can do irreversible damage to Taiwan. PLA might not need to land in initial phase of AR. Taiwan is just too small.

this is just my opinion. i can be wrong.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Once barges filled with FPVs can drop anchor within 5 km of the coast, its over. Everything down to individual infantry within 10 km of the coast gets cleared out by FPVs. Fiber optics or wired FPVs start off by kicking the door open against anti-drone soft kill

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Fiber optic fpv drones with range of 50km are now being prototyped as we speak.

There is no where they can hide

Phead128 said:

has this been tried in Ukraine (FPV drones clearing 10km of enemy infantry) and how fast is this progress? If it takes weeks or months, then China shouldn't bother with AR. Taking and securing a beachhead should be a quick (hours, max days), not like Ukraine-style slogfest (weeks, months).

Click to expand...

Currently FPVs are dealing casualties on par with artillery in the past:


Based on Ukrainian testimony, NATO still sees FPV drones as a joke and are completely unprepared, and Taiwan basically follows NATO doctrine in all ways.


Russian and Ukrainian industrial capability isn't enough to produce the huge number of drones required and they're already becoming extremely drone centric ground forces both in countering and deployment.

Chinese industrial capability can pump FPVs like bullets and Taiwan still doesn't take them seriously because the west didn't give them permission to take it seriously yet.

gelgoog said:

I have heard two claims. One where supposedly Xi set a goal to have the armed forces ready by 2027. Another where it is claimed due to retirements and inductions 2027 is the year the US Navy will have the least ships. Supposedly giving the PRC an attack window.

But this is all BS. Because the long term trends all lead to the Chinese military advantage vs the US to grow not get narrower. And there is no reason for China not to wait longer. There is no deadline.
If anything it is the US that needs to hurry or lose its chance to damage China in a war. But I think, unlike these US military analysts, that their chance to win a war vs China is long gone. Maybe a decade ago it could have been done.

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It's just something that so odd to constantly bring up; especially since it's an automatic sign that the speaker is not a good strategic thinker on China. I can sort of understand it when the 2027 date was well into the future as it's a spur to action. But when the date is so close, the challenge starts feeling insurmountable, and any suggestions that don't have immediate impact is going to feel ineffectual. It's just dumb, but I guess that's a pretty good fit for the US' China policy.

Phead128 said:

has this been tried in Ukraine (FPV drones clearing 10km of enemy infantry) and how fast is this progress? If it takes weeks or months, then China shouldn't bother with AR. Taking and securing a beachhead should be a quick (hours, max days), not like Ukraine-style slogfest (weeks, months).

Click to expand...

The real danger of an attack on Taiwan is that the attacker can suffer a lot of casualties if it's done carelessly. It's easy to hide weapons that can target a beach landing so it's painstaking to reduce all the defenses before any amphibious forces approach the shore. Once upon a time China was worried about finishing off Taiwan's defenses before the Americans could deploy to the West Pacific, but that's less and less of a concern nowadays, so it would make more sense for the PLA to take its time so that they take minimal casualties in the operation.

Realistically, even if Taiwan is willing to fight, I suspect that they will only do so if there's any prospect of getting reinforced by the Americans. If the Americans don't commit or if that reinforcement wave is defeated, it seems likely that Taiwan would capitulate. As an island nation, Taiwan poses an extreme challenge for anyone trying to land and support an invasion force. But as an island nation, Taiwan also lacks any strategic depth or prospect of resupply. Taiwan's supply situation simply doesn't allow them to hold out for more than a few weeks so the conflict on the island itself shouldn't take too long, whether it's a blockade or if it's an invasion.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Currently FPVs are dealing casualties on par with artillery in the past:

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Based on Ukrainian testimony, NATO still sees FPV drones as a joke and are completely unprepared, and Taiwan basically follows NATO doctrine in all ways.

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Russian and Ukrainian industrial capability isn't enough to produce the huge number of drones required and they're already becoming extremely drone centric ground forces both in countering and deployment.

Chinese industrial capability can pump FPVs like bullets and Taiwan still doesn't take them seriously because the west didn't give them permission to take it seriously yet.

Click to expand...

This is exactly why I'm worried about overly 'dialectial' people ruining innovation in the PLA.

I am of the opinion that all major militaries right now are in cope mode. Trying to implement drone defenses for their direct fire vehicles, trying to jam more AA guns on their battleships, rather than realising that aircrafts are the future.

Anyone who has being apart of anything knows that people incharge HATE change, because it means they have to do more work and nobody wants to do more work.

Ukraine and Russia are fighting eachother in Donbass for 8 years, somehow neither side used drones for anything but reconnaissance.
It is not until thousands upon thousands of dead start arriving home, not until artillery runs dry and the entire airforce become combat ineffective before someone finally does something.

On the bright side, it means experience from limited wars are worth little. Only in permissive small wars do stupid ideas like "why have attack drones at the squad level when I can just call in CAS?"(an actual idea that the russians have) take hold.

Nobody has any idea how total war over Taiwan would look, it would be up who can adapt faster and produce more.

sunnymaxi said:

i have read all your comments. somehow agreed with your assessment. without boots on the ground AR won't achieve.

but the fundamental difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is, Total Area.. so i think air strikes, missiles, drones can do irreversible damage to Taiwan. PLA might not need to land in initial phase of AR. Taiwan is just too small.

this is just my opinion. i can be wrong.

View attachment 154963

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Actual inhabited area is even smaller. Just strips on the coast. The middle is just mountains with very few people.

bsdnf said:

Why would you care about a youtube army GI from the first place?

I dislike Battle Order very much, since he is very bad at reporting PLA related information, but he does provide more comprehensive report than Cappy on the topic of the Transformation in Contact Platoon program. Focus on specific organization, equipment, and tasks, rather than the American Bushido fantasy of “if the PLA does A, then I will do B, I win.”

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Question if I may, What does battle order get wrong with regards to Chinese military affairs?

FairAndUnbiased said:

Based on Ukrainian testimony, NATO still sees FPV drones as a joke and are completely unprepared, and Taiwan basically follows NATO doctrine in all ways.

Click to expand...

Few months ago, if not more than a yr ago, i saw a twtr acct of a US guy in t4iw4n, claiming to be bldg a 'drone factory' in T4iw4n for 'def purposes'. I think it was the time whem the 'make t4iw4n a p0rcupine' news came out... not sure of the progress tho ..

Breadbox said:

This is exactly why I'm worried about overly 'dialectial' people ruining innovation in the PLA.

I am of the opinion that all major militaries right now are in cope mode. Trying to implement drone defenses for their direct fire vehicles, trying to jam more AA guns on their battleships, rather than realising that aircrafts are the future.

Anyone who has being apart of anything knows that people incharge HATE change, because it means they have to do more work and nobody wants to do more work.

Ukraine and Russia are fighting eachother in Donbass for 8 years, somehow neither side used drones for anything but reconnaissance.
It is not until thousands upon thousands of dead start arriving home, not until artillery runs dry and the entire airforce become combat ineffective before someone finally does something.

On the bright side, it means experience from limited wars are worth little. Only in permissive small wars do stupid ideas like "why have attack drones at the squad level when I can just call in CAS?"(an actual idea that the russians have) take hold.

Nobody has any idea how total war over Taiwan would look, it would be up who can adapt faster and produce more.

Click to expand...

Ironically the type of people your describing also happen to be the most western-ideologically influenced people as well, whereas the most analytically dynamic folks aren't so in my experience, which is why Xi Jinping's ongoing military reforms were so critical in terms of timing.

GulfLander said:

Few months ago, if not more than a yr ago, i saw a twtr acct of a US guy in t4iw4n, claiming to be bldg a 'drone factory' in T4iw4n for 'def purposes'. I think it was the time whem the 'make t4iw4n a p0rcupine' news came out... not sure of the progress tho ..

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I mean that’s not surprising im sure every country that didn’t have drone factories are making drone factories