PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
EVs is already saving China about 1 million barrels of oil a day, IEA expects that will increase to 2.5-3 million barrels by 2030, 20% of total oil consumption. Moreover, past experience tells us that these expectations often lag behind reality. Renewables is 39% of China's electricity generation (up from 34% in 2023) and coal 58% (down from 63% in 2023), the possibility and damage of oil blockade is gradually decreasing
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Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member

Have anyone seen this?
These seem like the new standard template for whatever US tripwire and fast respond forces destined for Taiwan. The idea of heavy US land forces landing in Taiwan once shooting starts seem rather fanciful.

One important take away from the video is that the US military have no confidence of securing air superiority over Taiwan or even the first island chain. I wonder if they ever admitted this uncomfortable truth to the hearing or did they try to obfuscate this.
The US general standing in opposition really represent their old way of thinking, another Shock and Awe, a repeat of Desert Storm and nothing else would do.

Another curious thing is that they are incorportaing Ground drones into the new recon platoon. I'm very skeptical of ground drones, they have low range, no ability to overcome obstacles, no stealth and thus no survivability. It has none of advantages of a flying drone and imo, very limited usefulness.

Sometimes I wonder how quickly have PLA are adapting to the new realities of war. Drones are no longer just the eye, not just the sword but the primary means of survival as well. Everything from artillery to small unit tactics are transformed by it.

I am of the opinion that old heavy amphibious brigades allocated for the first wave should be considered combat inefficient. Still useful of course, but painfully fragile for how much they cost.
Frankly, I think if they are opposed by anyone more competent than the current ROC forces, it will totally combat ineffective unless the beachheads are already secured by preliminary ground forces.

To deny the this new reality posed by drones would be to deny the effectiveness of machineguns in 1916. I hope there's no one in the PLA trying to be 'Um, actually' about drones. It's good to be dialectical or 'scientific'(a popular saying in China), but if people tries to be dialectical about guns vs spears they need to be punched in the face.

The effectiveness(number) of small drones are rooted in its large civilian demand, anti-drone devices have very little civilian demand by comparison which is why there'll NEVER be a cost effective counter to them. When more autonomous drones become commonnplace, even existing methods of drone defence will start to fail. The West won the cold war on back of its civilian industries, the demand of its people drove its defence technology to surpass that of the USSR.

China is in a unique position to be leaps and bound of its rivals in this military transformation, I'would be in for a shock if the 'Um actually' folks manages to bundle this revolution. Either that, or institutional inertia forces money to be spent on old force plans instead of upgrading to new ones.
 
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dingyibvs

Senior Member

Have anyone seen this?
These seem like the new standard template for whatever US tripwire and fast respond forces destined for Taiwan. The idea of heavy US land forces landing in Taiwan once shooting starts seem rather fanciful.

One important take away from the video is that the US military have no confidence of securing air superiority over Taiwan or even the first island chain. I wonder if they ever admitted this uncomfortable truth to the hearing or did they try to obfuscate this.
The US general standing in opposition really represent their old way of thinking, another Shock and Awe, a repeat of Desert Storm and nothing else would do.

Another curious thing is that they are incorportaing Ground drones into the new recon platoon. I'm very skeptical of ground drones, they have low range, no ability to overcome obstacles, no stealth and thus no survivability. It has none of advantages of a flying drone and imo, very limited usefulness.

Sometimes I wonder how quickly have PLA are adapting to the new realities of war. Drones are no longer just the eye, not just the sword but the primary means of survival as well. Everything from artillery to small unit tactics are transformed by it.

I am of the opinion that old heavy amphibious brigades allocated for the first wave should be considered combat inefficient. Still useful of course, but painfully fragile for how much they cost.
Frankly, I think if they are opposed by anyone more competent than the current ROC forces, it will totally combat ineffective unless the beachheads are already secured by preliminary ground forces.

To deny the this new reality posed by drones would be to deny the effectiveness of machineguns in 1916. I hope there's no one in the PLA trying to be 'Um, actually' about drones. It's good to be dialectical or 'scientific'(a popular saying in China), but if people tries to be dialectical about guns vs spears they need to be punched in the face.

The effectiveness(number) of small drones are rooted in its large civilian demand, anti-drone devices have very little civilian demand by comparison which is why there'll NEVER be a cost effective counter to them. When more autonomous drones become commonnplace, even existing methods of drone defence will start to fail. The West won the cold war on back of its civilian industries, the demand of its people drove its defence technology to surpass that of the USSR.

China is in a unique position to be leaps and bound of its rivals in this military transformation, I'would be in for a shock if the 'Um actually' folks manages to bundle this revolution. Either that, or institutional inertia forces money to be spent on old force plans instead of upgrading to new ones.

Check out the ground forces section of this board, drones are increasingly integrated into the PLAGF these days. Ground drones have the advantage of long endurance and load carrying capacity at presumably a lower cost, with the trade off of having lower speed, range, and ability to overcome obstacles. It's same really for existing ground and aerial platforms.
 

Breadbox

Junior Member
Registered Member
Check out the ground forces section of this board, drones are increasingly integrated into the PLAGF these days. Ground drones have the advantage of long endurance and load carrying capacity at presumably a lower cost, with the trade off of having lower speed, range, and ability to overcome obstacles. It's same really for existing ground and aerial platforms.
They've shown off their ground drones alittle, it's a pure light weapons platform, not designed to be load bearing, load bearing is entirely done by their buggies. Infact they dedicated an entire vehicle for each UGV.

Their intended purpose to be used as a sacrificial rear guard when engaged by ground troops. Which I guess is one thing it does better than light infantry. I say good luck to them.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs

Have anyone seen this?
These seem like the new standard template for whatever US tripwire and fast respond forces destined for Taiwan. The idea of heavy US land forces landing in Taiwan once shooting starts seem rather fanciful.

One important take away from the video is that the US military have no confidence of securing air superiority over Taiwan or even the first island chain. I wonder if they ever admitted this uncomfortable truth to the hearing or did they try to obfuscate this.
The US general standing in opposition really represent their old way of thinking, another Shock and Awe, a repeat of Desert Storm and nothing else would do.

Another curious thing is that they are incorportaing Ground drones into the new recon platoon. I'm very skeptical of ground drones, they have low range, no ability to overcome obstacles, no stealth and thus no survivability. It has none of advantages of a flying drone and imo, very limited usefulness.

Sometimes I wonder how quickly have PLA are adapting to the new realities of war. Drones are no longer just the eye, not just the sword but the primary means of survival as well. Everything from artillery to small unit tactics are transformed by it.

I am of the opinion that old heavy amphibious brigades allocated for the first wave should be considered combat inefficient. Still useful of course, but painfully fragile for how much they cost.
Frankly, I think if they are opposed by anyone more competent than the current ROC forces, it will totally combat ineffective unless the beachheads are already secured by preliminary ground forces.

To deny the this new reality posed by drones would be to deny the effectiveness of machineguns in 1916. I hope there's no one in the PLA trying to be 'Um, actually' about drones. It's good to be dialectical or 'scientific'(a popular saying in China), but if people tries to be dialectical about guns vs spears they need to be punched in the face.

The effectiveness(number) of small drones are rooted in its large civilian demand, anti-drone devices have very little civilian demand by comparison which is why there'll NEVER be a cost effective counter to them. When more autonomous drones become commonnplace, even existing methods of drone defence will start to fail. The West won the cold war on back of its civilian industries, the demand of its people drove its defence technology to surpass that of the USSR.

China is in a unique position to be leaps and bound of its rivals in this military transformation, I'would be in for a shock if the 'Um actually' folks manages to bundle this revolution. Either that, or institutional inertia forces money to be spent on old force plans instead of upgrading to new ones.
Why do you think there will be a ground operation? Taiwan Island is an island. Blockade it and it either surrenders or dies.
 

PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why do you think there will be a ground operation? Taiwan Island is an island. Blockade it and it either surrenders or dies.
It’s entirely possible China just uses Planes and ships but they might need force but China has always ruled that as the last case scenario, China would rather not kill anyone
 

montyp165

Senior Member
They've shown off their ground drones alittle, it's a pure light weapons platform, not designed to be load bearing, load bearing is entirely done by their buggies. Infact they dedicated an entire vehicle for each UGV.

Their intended purpose to be used as a sacrificial rear guard when engaged by ground troops. Which I guess is one thing it does better than light infantry. I say good luck to them.
The bigger hint is always the doctrinal process more than the public facing hardware, and the PLA thought process on the implication of drones has been much more thorough than either their Russian or US counterparts in terms of systems integration and utilization, especially wrt the enhanced dual purpose capabilities first demonstrated by Azerbaijan against Armenia. This also doesn't even take into account the level of drone countermeasure development by Chinese military vendors for the PLA, which also are far greater in scale and variety than their opponents have.
 

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member

Have anyone seen this?
These seem like the new standard template for whatever US tripwire and fast respond forces destined for Taiwan. The idea of heavy US land forces landing in Taiwan once shooting starts seem rather fanciful.

One important take away from the video is that the US military have no confidence of securing air superiority over Taiwan or even the first island chain. I wonder if they ever admitted this uncomfortable truth to the hearing or did they try to obfuscate this.
The US general standing in opposition really represent their old way of thinking, another Shock and Awe, a repeat of Desert Storm and nothing else would do.

Another curious thing is that they are incorportaing Ground drones into the new recon platoon. I'm very skeptical of ground drones, they have low range, no ability to overcome obstacles, no stealth and thus no survivability. It has none of advantages of a flying drone and imo, very limited usefulness.

Sometimes I wonder how quickly have PLA are adapting to the new realities of war. Drones are no longer just the eye, not just the sword but the primary means of survival as well. Everything from artillery to small unit tactics are transformed by it.

I am of the opinion that old heavy amphibious brigades allocated for the first wave should be considered combat inefficient. Still useful of course, but painfully fragile for how much they cost.
Frankly, I think if they are opposed by anyone more competent than the current ROC forces, it will totally combat ineffective unless the beachheads are already secured by preliminary ground forces.

To deny the this new reality posed by drones would be to deny the effectiveness of machineguns in 1916. I hope there's no one in the PLA trying to be 'Um, actually' about drones. It's good to be dialectical or 'scientific'(a popular saying in China), but if people tries to be dialectical about guns vs spears they need to be punched in the face.

The effectiveness(number) of small drones are rooted in its large civilian demand, anti-drone devices have very little civilian demand by comparison which is why there'll NEVER be a cost effective counter to them. When more autonomous drones become commonnplace, even existing methods of drone defence will start to fail. The West won the cold war on back of its civilian industries, the demand of its people drove its defence technology to surpass that of the USSR.

China is in a unique position to be leaps and bound of its rivals in this military transformation, I'would be in for a shock if the 'Um actually' folks manages to bundle this revolution. Either that, or institutional inertia forces money to be spent on old force plans instead of upgrading to new ones.
This video's seems to be extremely optimistic about a lot of things regarding a Taiwan scenario. The first is that there's any point to fighting on the island of Taiwan. The reality is that by the time the PLA lands ground forces, Taiwan is already toast and the only thing to consider is after war negotiations. Next, the idea that the US Army is going to be able to insert troops onto Taiwan after the PLA has already landed is completely laughable. The only way that's even slightly possible is with airborne troops and they'll be flying face-first into a million PL-15s.

As for the drone-unit itself, it feels like it's doing stuff I've been seeing the PLA do 5-10 years ago. I guess that it's good that they're finally starting, but they're way more optimistic about their abilities than they should be. Betting on drone and counter-drone technology when China is about a decade ahead in both is not a promising avenue of approach. It really feels like the US Army is trying hard to justify itself in a Western Pacific conflict, and it's failing pretty hard. To be fair, the PLAGF has a hard time justifying itself, but at least they have a bunch of Amphibious Brigades for an actual invasion.
 
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