PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Ever wonder what if China will to fit radar return devices on thousands of small unmanned sea goung crafts that reflects back signatures that resemble exisitng major China warships?

So if US will to deploy 3,000 missiles against an invasion fleet from Mainland, and PLAN may repond with building 30,000 small unmanned radar decoy boats. No doubt some of these missiles might correctly aimed at the real PLAN ships but these ships are not defenseless.

That’s falling for the idiotic premise of the wet dream exercise.

The ‘exercise’ were just glorified propaganda tools designed specifically and purposefully to boost American moral and likelihood of intervening.

The basic underlying premise is that China will use nonsensical strategies of Zerg rushing Taiwan with civilian transport ships without adequate pre-invasion work up other than an opening massed missile barrage.

It also assumes that China will do absolutely nothing to proactively safeguard its landing forces and fleets as the U.S. masses its most powerful alpha strike and then just eats that hammer blow before starting to seriously respond.

That’s the equivalent of the PLAN coming up with a silly scenario where it will have packs of 022 missile boats keep within strike range of all USN carrier groups in the second island chain, and that they will spam all the carriers to death with YJ82/83s as soon as war is declared.

China does not need to specifically plan to defend against such an attack because such an attack will be impossible in real life.

China does need to guard against saturation attacks by long range stealthy cruise missiles. That’s why it’s investing so much into AWACS to help detect those cruise missiles effectively, and super long range AAMs so J16s can engage US bombers, AWACS and tankers at extended ranges.

Frankly we have already wasted too much time and effort debunking a nonsense result from an exercise tailor made to produce the desired result in the first place.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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Taiwan president warns of China's 'infiltration' effort, vows counter measures​



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View attachment 147688

Agent Lai is accelerating, he will use the CPC as an excuse to enact a bigger purge. #Reunification2027

联合利剑2025A when?

The sword is literally on their neck and yet they continue to spout nonsense. This ought to be a good study case for future psychologists on the effects of mass delusion.
 

blindsight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Although those munitions are for the most part LO, and would be hard to detected for most of their flight profile, once they become visible, they are usually quite easy to defeat. They actually can be easily countered if you have high kill rate CIWS.

That's why I have said in previous threads that the PLAN needs to increase the number of gun based CIWS per ship to two for each destroyer/frigate. And even more importantly, you would need some type of CIWS organically on at least some of the medium sized amphibious ships (I mean 730s and 1130s), so that you don't need surface combatants to be always escorting them. And with each landing ship >500 tonnes having its own close in defense, it would be hard to imagine that LRASM would be able to score more than a handful of kills in the strait.
Totally agreed. The 071 has 4 630s. Let’s assume it’ OK. But all smaller landing ships have no reliable CIWS at all, not to mention those civilian ferries. If PLA wouldn’t do anything, it could lead to a total disaster.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Totally agreed. The 071 has 4 630s. Let’s assume it’ OK. But all smaller landing ships have no reliable CIWS at all, not to mention those civilian ferries. If PLA wouldn’t do anything, it could lead to a total disaster.
If USN also doesn't switch on any air defenses and/or split up all their defended ships piecemeal, it would also lead to a total disaster

I don't really get the point behind saying or discussing this though
 

HardBall

New Member
Registered Member
Totally agreed. The 071 has 4 630s. Let’s assume it’ OK. But all smaller landing ships have no reliable CIWS at all, not to mention those civilian ferries. If PLA wouldn’t do anything, it could lead to a total disaster.


Right. That is probably the achilles heel of the PLAN amphibious fleet. These types of relatively LO ASM are detected late, at close range, so medium/long range area defence are at best of marginal utility. It will come down largely to point defence of each ship or group of ships.

If most small formations of ships crossing (which would be amphibs and even civilian sea lifts) do not have CIWS or equivalent, then loss ratio would be very high over time. That would not be sustainable if you want to keep the land forces supplied and reinfoced.

It's really a quite easy fix; would cost some money to install self contained CIWS units on most amphibs, but is actually quite affordable considering the alternatives. If you have all medium sized amphibs having at least one 730/1130, and one H/PJ-17 for each samll (500 tonnes or less) amphib, then they would be a much tougher nut to crack.

In an expanded beach head scenario, they would be at the periphery anyways, able to guard the flanks, whereas civilian sea lifts would be near the center of the beach head, furthest from the perimeters on land. There would still be losses, but most of the LRASM can be intercepted by landing covoys of amphibs going to and fro the perimeter sides of the beach.
 

gk1713

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There is a TV drama scheduled on CCTV1 in 2025 about this era too.
The Age of Peace (太平年) tells about amidst the overwhelming momentum for unification during the Northern Song Dynasty and for the welfare of all people, Zhao Kuangyin (Emperor Taizu of Song) and Qian Hongchu set aside military confrontation. In the third year of the Taiping Xingguo era (978 CE), they accomplished the historic feat of "Presenting the Territory to the Song" (纳土归宋), achieving peaceful reunification through political integration.
It clearly carries political messages.
 
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