PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow said:

Key practical purpose is to gauge ROC military response time and readiness. How many planes do they send to intercept us? How fast did they respond to aerial/naval assets congregating in key locations? Which radars are on and what can we gleam from the SIGINT mission etc.

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Again, they don't need to do that with media coverage nor does it need to be done in this manner.

I think everyone should just accept that what is high profile and useful signaling for people in the general public is not necessarily that significant in actual conflict or actual high end military training.


It seems the height of arrogance to me to think that we have the right to observe training and operations that are actually important and sensitive.
This is a form of bread and circus, and not even that large in scale at that.

PLA propaganda dept working overtime. Don't underestimate the power of propaganda, some people living in ROC controlled territories have already accepted the inevitable.

supersnoop said:

One thing to always remember with these exercises, the equipment is probably less important compared to the level of integration and coordination shown by forces. Here we can see direct coordination between Coast Guard and Navy. In the event of a conflict, Coast Guard should be effectively able to handle some auxiliary taskings from the Navy. ROCN actually has a similar concern as the Tuo-Chiang is also used by the ROCCG.

2022 we saw operational deployment of YY-20 and J-16D which are new platforms in those Taiwan exercises, so there is some forward thinking in utilizing future assets.

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I think one thing to watch out for post exercise if weather or not CCG attempts to change the status quo and start regular patrol around other outlying islands and on the east side of Taiwan. Back in late Feb when the Jinmen fishermen incident was blowing up there was an one off case when three CCG ships were spotted on the east side and reported in Taiwanese news:

CCG has changed the on the ground reality of the "restricted waters" around Jinmen using the fishermen case as inciting incident, the same "Jinmen Model" may be applied more widely after this. .

Temstar said:

I think one thing to watch out for post exercise if weather or not CCG attempts to change the status quo and start regular patrol around other outlying islands and on the east side of Taiwan. Back in late Feb when the Jinmen fishermen incident was blowing up there was an one off case when three CCG ships were spotted on the east side and reported in Taiwanese news:

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CCG has changed the on the ground reality of the "restricted waters" around Jinmen using the fishermen case as inciting incident, the same "Jinmen Model" may be applied more widely after this.

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.

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I think its inevitable that China will have to keep escalating in the Lai-Hsiao Bi Khim era. These people are extreme anti-China Taiwan independence die hards. China will be forced to keep responding militarily to their actions. If Biden comes to power again, I think they will be forced to swat DPP down again just like they did in the Chen shui Bian era.

But if not, if GOP comes to power, then all bets are off. Escalation will continue with no end in sight. Eventually, I think there will be a day when PLA will directly fly over Taiwan and Taiwanese will only watch and do nothing. China is like the US of East Asia. I think in the future they will have ultimate impunity to overfly over any country they want in their region and no one will dare to shoot them down.

I think the big one for this year exercise was the CG integration with the PLAN. But for PLAN/PLAAF specifically, I don't see anything special tbh especially with comparison to Pelosi's exercises

A lot of people claim Taiwan has drones which can stop Chinese warships. I mean if it worked in Ukraine on Russian warships surely it must work here?

Apart from China being a massive drone producer themselves, what counters does China have for this? A

tankphobia said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1793946425191186485

Allegedly infrared tracking of PLA H-6 and J-16 by ROCAF aircraft. Is this via IRST from a f-16? Seems escalatory as it could be misinterpreted as a lock.

As expected, the comments are... Interesting.

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There wouldn't be a "lock" since IRSTs are passive sensors. In fact, this looks like a TV (visible light) camera since the energies are not brighter than the rest of the fuselage but the missiles (which are white) are brighter.

Randomuser said:

A lot of people claim Taiwan has drones which can stop Chinese warships. I mean if it worked in Ukraine on Russian warships surely it must work here?

Apart from China being a massive drone producer themselves, what counters does China have for this? A

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Wide area jamming, denial of enemy ISR assets, helicopter patrols, ship mounted ATGMS, heck if it comes down to it all it really takes is a torpedo net.

tankphobia said:

ship mounted ATGMS

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Wat? Why ATGMS?

pevade said:

Wat? Why ATGMS?

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There was a time where, in lieu of warships, the PLA put tanks and cannons on civilian ships. Otherwise, they may be for the ZBD/ZTD-05s.