PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Bellum_Romanum said:

What's the beginning? All I could see was a Taiwanese legislator running away from the mayhem after he stole the contentious bill.

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Moonscape said:

Nothing unexpected from Lai.

I think the fact that the Legislative Yuan is back in KMT hands might lead Beijing to not react as strongly as it otherwise would. For example, if DPP retained control of the legislature, Beijing probably will abrogate the ECFA.

I think a good response to Lai's inauguration speech will be for the PLAN to begin regular patrols between Penghu and the island of Taiwan. It's a significant salami slice that further wittles away Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, but not entirely unprecedented in light of the post-Pelosi exercise and the new Kinmen patrols, so it's unlikely to provoke a substantive response. In general, every time Taiwan attempts to move towards de jure indepdence, the mainland should salami slice away a proportional bit of Taiwan's de facto sovereignty.

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Moonscape said:

Nothing unexpected from Lai.

I think the fact that the Legislative Yuan is back in KMT hands might lead Beijing to not react as strongly as it otherwise would. For example, if DPP retained control of the legislature, Beijing probably will abrogate the ECFA.

I think a good response to Lai's inauguration speech will be for the PLAN to begin regular patrols between Penghu and the island of Taiwan. It's a significant salami slice that further wittles away Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, but not entirely unprecedented in light of the post-Pelosi exercise and the new Kinmen patrols, so it's unlikely to provoke a substantive response. In general, every time Taiwan attempts to move towards de jure indepdence, the mainland should salami slice away a proportional bit of Taiwan's de facto sovereignty.

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Minm said:

We draw lessons from the ICC warrants and the international outrage over using hunger as a weapon in war for any Taiwan campaign. The patchwork blockade plan, that seems so popular here, is the idea of using hunger and suffering of civilians to force a surrender. This must not be China's plan. I believe, the party leadership will instruct the army to fight as "the most moral army in the world".

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AndrewS said:

Previous post below

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I would add that in the event of a Taiwan blockade, it is not in China's interests to be cruel or vindictive.

1. As per Gaza's deliberate mass starvation, this is acknowledged to be a war crime.
2. On a practical level, mass starvation in Taiwan doesn't look good in the global media
3. You have all sorts of personal ties between China and Taiwan. For example, as far as I'm aware, Xi Jinping's sister still lives in Taiwan
4. Taiwanese are recognised as equal citizens to anyone in China, albeit with some caveats.

In comparison, suppose China was to flood Taiwan with aid ships carrying food to a hungry Taiwan?

1. It looks better in the global media narrative
2. It helps maintain domestic Chinese support for a war
3. This would likely be a propaganda coup in Taiwan. Remember lots of Taiwanese have a really distorted view of China. China's goal is to win "hearts and minds"

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zbb said:

I can't see any of the attached pictures. Is it just me?

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