PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf said:

The only scenario where RoC military forces don’t outright melt away and/or mass surrender in a reunification fight is if they sincerely believe the Americans will ride in to their rescue.

America can maintain that pretence in the opening phases of the war by loudly mobilising its forces. But if American forces have not directly engaged by the time the PLA mass landings have started, then moral will collapse within RoC ranks, since everyone knows that once the PLA lands en mass it’s over.

The overwhelming majority of RoC forces will desert and/or surrender (the PLA will be sure to drop plenty of leaflets with precise instructions on how to signal surrender) and the fight will end for all intents and purposes.

What few die hards that remain will be quickly and easily mopped up and would barely amount to more than police actions.

China will not fire the first shot, but it will not have to. For American carrier based combat aircraft to be within combat range of Taiwan would also mean the carriers are well within PLARF AShBM range.

As soon as American forces open fire on PLA forces, the PLARF will launch a saturation AShBM strike on the USN fleet while PLAAF and PLANAF strike packages mass launch to overkill whatever is left.

China does not expect America to be stupid enough to directly intervene, but it is not counting on American cowardice buts it own hard power. If America engages, the PLA will erase its attack fleet within hours and give the Americans the chance to back down and end it right there and then.

If America is too stupid to take the hint, China can and will escalate the fight to any level America want and win. Because America’s bases in the region are just sitting ducks without any naval support.

The recent massive overt nuclear build up is to just formally remove any remote hope America might have at nuclear blackmail, where China is now showing its hand on its nuclear forces and will probably formally move away from minimal credible deterrence to full blooded MAD, and launch on warning nuclear posture at the start of any direct conflict with the US.

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5unrise said:

I too believe that once PLA forces have established some sort of a mass landing, a large chunk of RoC land forces would surrender. Not everyone wants to fight, and many people do not consider the cause they are fighting for to be legitimate. However, there are some 'die-hards' as you say, and as someone born in Taiwan I can see many of these people. The point I think you are missing is that, whether the US decide to intervene against China is contingent on whether the US perceives whether an intervention can succeed, i.e. whether it can win. For the hardliners in Taiwan, they may be willing to try to hold out for as long as possible, to try and convince the US that an intervention could be successful. This means that the PLA would be kind of on a clock to eliminate all organised reisistance, because the longer the conflict is dragged on for, the more likely that western intervention materialises. The risk would be increased if the PLA naval and air losses were heavier than expected.

You may have also underestimated how long a handfull of diehards can hold out, if they think by doing so they raise the odds of a foreign intervention. The defenders have geographic advantages, even if I give you the presumption that an amphibious landing was successful in the western half of the island. The central mountain ranges are very easy to hold, with very few roads, and the roads that are there are treacherous. There's many caves in these mountains to serve as bases. The main passage to the east of the island would be the narrow coastal strips, which are heavily urbanised. They may hold out for quite some time, and still retain the main port on the east side of the island. Again, the time it takes to eliminate this pocket presents risks to China, of the conflict widening more than what is in its interest. Therefore, it pays to be cautious, even if one holds the military advantage.

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5unrise said:

The central mountain ranges are very easy to hold, with very few roads, and the roads that are there are treacherous. There's many caves in these mountains to serve as bases.

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Overbom said:

And what are these Supermen "hardliners" gonna do? Don't they have families, wives, kids, relatives, friends etc. The PLA will find many ways to get these militants out of the mountains

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5unrise said:

The Taiwanese military needs to maximise the probability of a US-led intervention against China. Most PLA strategists believe that the US probably will not intervene, but the truth is that nobody can be sure. Indeed, China does not discount that possibility in its preparations, and it cannot afford to. You might believe that the likelihood of a US intervention is beyond Taiwan's control, but I would disagree. The longer the fighting is dragged out for, and the greater the cost it is inflicting on the PLA, and the more time it is occupying PLA forces, the greater the likelihood that Washington believes that an intervention can succeed. This is more true if the RoC armed forces can hold a port, probably Hualien on the east coast.

If the RoC forces want to win, it will probably retreat into the mountains, and try to hold onto the east coast of the island for as long as they can. On land, it can simply try to block the narrow coastal passages leading to the eastern side. Taiwan will seek to consolidate most of its missile forces on the east side, and probably try to fly its combat aircraft there, or if that is not possible, to Japan. The mountains will act as some form of barrier against cruise missiles from the west. While the PLAN can of course sail their naval forces to the east, this will expose their warships to some extent to missile strikes.

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Bellum_Romanum said:

Wishful thinking posited by pseudo experts and failed military strategists in the west a.k.a. U.S..

Frankly speaking, the U.S. has never entered a war post WWII where it didn't enjoy preponderance level of military tech and power over it's adversaries. From Korea, Vietnam all the way to it's recent defeat in Afghanistan the U.S. has had the privileged of being the unquestioned superior power.

The U.S. has become so arrogant and assumes that their days in the spotlight especially in warfare will never recede, what a contemptible arrogant country.

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