Recent movements of Chinese and US CSGs in the WestPac. Posted by @邹健论道丙 on Weibo.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Do any of you think that USAF can realistically participate in a Taiwan contingency. They have like 4 bases (one o which is Guam which is a few thousand km away) that will be under non stop fire from the PLARF. This means I think that the majority of sorties against the PLA would be from the USN. However, the USN is only planning on having less that 300 F-35s. They will face off against J-35s and J-20s with YY-20s from the mainland. Does the US realise this will give the PLA massive advantage? Like My question is how can USAF participate in this war?
If US really decides to fight China for Taiwan, then It will not just be about Taiwan. It will be about destroying China's military might and keeping US hegemony of Asia intact. That means its not going to be just US vs China. But China vs US plus all vassals providing support, basing and even fighting. If Japan and Australia doesn't join this fight then US won't fight at all, regardless of how important it is for them to save Taiwan.
For China also, fighting US doesn't mean they sink a few US ships, takeover Taiwan and done. For China, it will be a fight to destroy US military presence in Asia once and for all. That means, the end game for China will be Japan and others formally renouncing US alliance and joining some kind of neutrality or alliance with China instead and all US troops and bases leaving for good.
Now if US for example does not think China taking over Taiwan is serious enough to fight Great war 3.0, then they will give up on Taiwan without a fight and maybe impose sanctions.
Some western expert thinks China vs US over Taiwan will be some kind of limited war. I don't think so. It will be a globe spanning war involving the fate of US hegemony over Asia and potentially the entire world.
Regardless of what the outcome of this war is, it will be a huge defeat for US hegemony in the world because they will lose a lot of military material, manpower, economic vitality and so on. They will most likely give up on a lot of other regions and other actors will take this opportunity rise up.
So, if US and the west was intelligent, they will give up on Taiwan without a fight. Because preserving power and trying to weaken China with proxies is a much safer and long lasting strategy than fighting world war 3 with largest manufacturer in the world.
BTW, even if there is a war between US and China, I don't think it will be ever go nuclear. Cause going nuclear is like comitting a suicide bombing attack. You die in the process as well. Might as well declare surrender with some kind of humialiting deal than comitting suicide.
broadsword
Brigadier
Drones will be the grunts for the next armed conflict foot soldiers were in the Korean War. If only the naval drones are ready.
Only part I disagree with is that, US will not be weaken that easily. In any near term war (2020s to late 2030s), they have significant chance of winning a conventional war with China. Yes, US will have significant losses. But China wont be able to stand on it’s feet for another century. To make sure of it, US+their accomplices will force unequal treaties on PRC as they had done with Qing Dynasty era China.
US hegemony will not only further strengthen across East Asia , they will also be able to focus on other global issues like Middle East , Ukraine . ( IMO, they will go after India, it is a possible Superpower of the distant future. They wont make same mistake of not containing China in 1990s- early 2000s)
For China to avoid this fate, they will really need to buy more time. If it has to fight a war with the US and it’s accomplices, they better do it in the near late 2040s or 2050s. (IIRC, Original goal of Beijing's world class military was around 2049) . Hide your strength, bide your time still applies.
winning with what? With their rusting Arleigh Burkes?
lol it's actually the complete opposite of what you think. living in canada has really rotted your mind.
How can we be so certain that the Communist Party of China (CPC) would allow itself to be subjected to another set of humiliating 'Unequal Treaties' akin to those that contributed to the downfall of the Qing Empire? Is it feasible for the U.S. and its allies, whom you refer to as 'vassals,' to penetrate mainland China without resorting to nuclear or similarly catastrophic weaponry, especially given the commitment of the CPC, established post-WWII, to prevent any form of humiliation by foreign powers?
I am curious about how the U.S. and its allies, which I refer to as 'Avenger friends,' plan to undertake this monumental task without incurring the loss of millions of lives in their quest to overcome China and end the reign of the CPC. Should we not consider the possibility that the CPC leadership might resort to using nuclear weapons if faced with the potential loss of their power?"
You pointing out Ukraine in future tense as if it's assumed that Russia simply wallowed itself away in despair, and just raised its hands and gave up thereby singing kumbaya with Europe and the U.S. to finally join hands in going to war with China.
It's quite hubristic for anyone be it Chinese or American to think that such a massive world ending conflict will not inflict such tremendous bloodshed and financial losses more pertinently against America since it's assumed that they'll be the one to initiate an armed conflict with China in the fist place. We just casually set aside other powers in the world like North Korea, Russia, Iran and others as nothing but passerby, or possums in the event of a China vs. U.S. and friends decide to go YOLO against China.
Let's ground our analysis in some reality and not some fanatical assumptions based on past unwarranted glory and accomplishment that should have been credited to a certain polity and power that's currently fighting against it's fellow former Soviet Union State.