PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FairAndUnbiased said:

I'm not sure how much of an advantage specifically shaped stealth antiship missiles are. Cruise missiles have very low RCS already and stealth against ships matters most if it actually reduces detection distance within the ships radar horizon.

A clean F-16 has far more 90 degree retroreflectors due to large size and many flight control surfaces, yet has only a 1 m2 X band average RCS. What really increases RCS is exposed compressor and external mounted munitions creating more corner retroreflectors.

A regular cruise missile is geometrically a simple tube with wings. Random guess: even something like the Harpoon would be just 1/10 the RCS of a clean F-16.

In addition, a sea skimmer would only be visible on radar within 10-15 km. The RCS reduction has to be sufficient such that it isn't detectable by radar even within essentially visual range.

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Jono said:

that's why I used the word "inconvenience" in regard to international warrants and sanctions that may be served on President Xi.
still, what happened to Ms. Meng WanZhou in Canada should serve as an example of how low the US and its western cronies can stoop to demonize China and its leader.
when it comes to hypocritical tricks and traps, no one can beat the US at its game.

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Minm said:

People say that, but I don't see how he could have done anything differently. The relationship with the west broke down because of Trump, not because of Xi. He just made the best out of a bad situation. The West was always going to challenge China at around this time, simply because Chinese power is now approaching American power and given current growth rates, is set to eclipse it soon.

Of course there are things that Xi could have done better or earlier, nobody is perfect, but did he actually make a mistake?

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Biscuits said:

Xi is one of the better for the west. Realistically, there would never be anyone that is "nice" to them, as long as their aggression levels increase.

At least Xi is willing to talk, has walked back on opportunities to punish USA and scaled back defensive activities.

Let's not forget Xi has personally shown worrying tendencies to pro-Americanism. He visited America as a student and let his daughter spend some time there. However, Xi is obviously restrained by the party center on how pro-American his policies will be.

There is simply no realistic or logical reason why the number 1 would bow down to number 2. The most Chinese leaders can do for America is to keep the door open for talks and let them save face. Which is what Xi does.

USA might think that by resorting to martial threats and "covert influence" they can cower China. That is a very stupid idea. Just ask how Putin how trying take all of the EU using only Russia works for him. If not for being backed by the no1 economy, Russia would be dead.

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Michaelsinodef said:

Piece of advice, be less confident and assertive when talking about topics and things you clearly don't have a good grasp on.

Xi having tendies for 'pro-Americanism'? Xi being restrained by the party to not implement more 'pro-American' policies? LMAO.

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tankphobia said:

I wouldn't count stealthy cruise missiles out just yet, storm shadows seem to be having some success getting past Russia air defenses for the moment, although that's on land and there will be nothing to hide behind in the sea. The complex EW environment in a true fleet vs fleet combat may complicate detection however.

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Biscuits said:

What else would you call allowing his daughter to take courses in America and himself visiting America as a student as???

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Biscuits said:

What would it say about for example Biden's character if Biden sent his son to China or maybe Iran for studies? Would that not show at least a slight pro-China or pro-Iran bent? What if there was a picture of a young smiling Biden next to some Iranian Mullah's family?

I didn't defintely say that Xi being restrained from US-friendly approach is the exact case inside the government, it was just a theory. Either way, we can deduce that Xi had in the past ties with US, but nowadays, the government conducts itself responsibly and adequately against it's enemies, although maybe not with great fervor. And whether if that is because Xi is restrained or because Xi eventually changed his views is up to anyone's speculation.

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tankphobia said:

I wouldn't count stealthy cruise missiles out just yet, storm shadows seem to be having some success getting past Russia air defenses for the moment, although that's on land and there will be nothing to hide behind in the sea. The complex EW environment in a true fleet vs fleet combat may complicate detection however.

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BoraTas said:

Well, this is just regurgitation think tank points.

This Decade of Concern argument fails to justify itself when you look at actual facts. It is more of a cultural meme caused by Americans perceiving the successes of foreign countries as a result of America being distracted, trickery, cheating, etc... There are two questions that should be asked:

Which side has been introducing new platforms faster? China. In many categories, China managed to develop and field competitive platforms and, in some cases like the 055, it outright surpassed Americans. We saw even new platforms such as J-16 and J-20 getting multiple upgrades and a new J-20 variant is about to emerge. So, unlike what could be argued 5 years ago, the rapid iterative development is not limited to catch-up.

Which side is getting equipment faster? China. Even in the fighter jet department, which is among America's shining successes, PLA is getting aircraft as fast as the US Armed Forces does. All of the USN fleet plans of the last 20 years failed while PLAN added hundreds of thousands of tons every year.

So no, there is no window of danger. It is getting worse for the US every year. You said NGAD. What about 1000+ J-20's that will be available by then? What about the H-20? What about the 095, sino 6th gen, DF-27 and vast investment in air defenses that will happen until then?

You said LRASM successor. Again what about Chinese investment in air defense and PLAN ships that actually have the equivalent of LRASM successor now? I don't know what else shows better than this that Chinese tech introduction is not limited to catch-up.
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Japan and Anglosphere were lost causes but European-Chinese relations could be handled better. I am not sure about India.

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