I highly doubt a taiwan scenario will ever happen. Why?
1. China still committed to peaceful reunification and its not like there is a deadline for it.
I wouldn’t bet your chips on that. Being committed does not mean they will and we don’t know if a deadline exists or not. There is no guarantees in a world where the current hegomony is waning fast.
2. A war would end taiwans place as an advanced economy. It's clear the Taiwanese authorities are aware of it too when one looks at their quadrenial 2021 defense review. Plus no way Taiwanese independence wins democratically ,why? Because it means the Taiwanese real estate market quickly goes to 0% and the CPC tries really hard to hammer that into the heads of the Taiwanese
Ultimately, the decision for Taiwan independence will be made from Washington. Not Taipei. If they have an opinion in the matter is another question.
3. US can't win much from a war. Best case they keep their hegemony. Why risk it
The US didn’t need to weaponize the dollar against Russia and yet they did. The ever growing China Hawks in the White House should not be downplayed and underestimated when the old boomer guard is soon to be retired. When the growing populist and woke warriors start taking over political and corporate positions. Don’t expect them to be rational against China.