PLA Strategies In The Indian Ocean And The Malacca And Sunda Straits

The point of having a strong military and nuclear force isn't to prepare for the likely scenario, but rather the bad scenario. The likely scenario is that China does not get into a conflict where it faces blockade. However, a US/China conflict over Taiwan or resources in the next 20 years is greater than 0. And in those scenario, it has to be prepared for the reality that US and its allies in the region like Australia will blockade energy and natural resources flowing into China. For all the calls to have more nukes on this forum, I don't understand why people don't see this as a real problem. How is Japan going to be able to give orders to America? ASEAN countries are not the ones feeding China's economic engine. That would be energy and natural resources coming from the Middle East and Africa. As things currently stand, US navy along with Australia can cut off the flow of those shipments quite easily.

Even if China has largest carrier groups with a bunch of J-31s, it would still be naturally in a deficit in any combat scenario if US navy has support from air bases near by. That's why China having bases near by is a great thing.

Today, I see Australia throwing hissy fit just because China signed a security deal with Solomon Islands.
That's with Solomon Islands being 2000 kms away from Brisbane and close to 3000 km away from Sydney/Canberra. Why would it be this large of a concern for Australia if they intend to have normal peaceful relationship with China?

As I said, the most obvious power players in this region are Malaysia and Indonesia. These countries have traditionally sided with the West due to their need to buy advanced military hardware and technology from Western countries. Now, they are trying to navigate competition between US and China in this region. They are never going to get state of the art military hardware or technology from the West or be respected as equals. Over the next 5 to 10 years, China will be able to offer a full spectrum of state of the art military hardware and advanced technology that Western countries simply won't offer to Indonesia. China is working hard to build its relationship with Muslim countries. Not just in ASEAN but also in the Middle East and Africa. When they can offer security, finance and technology to these countries, that's when these countries will be willing to look to China for leadership.

Indonesia is an archipelago nation so they will always be highly susceptible to whoever is the naval power in their area at the time.
They simply do not have any alternative but to toe their line.
China just needs to pump out those advanced nuclear attack subs like dumplings. And nukes.

tphuang said:

The point of having a strong military and nuclear force isn't to prepare for the likely scenario, but rather the bad scenario. The likely scenario is that China does not get into a conflict where it faces blockade. However, a US/China conflict over Taiwan or resources in the next 20 years is greater than 0. And in those scenario, it has to be prepared for the reality that US and its allies in the region like Australia will blockade energy and natural resources flowing into China. For all the calls to have more nukes on this forum, I don't understand why people don't see this as a real problem. How is Japan going to be able to give orders to America? ASEAN countries are not the ones feeding China's economic engine. That would be energy and natural resources coming from the Middle East and Africa. As things currently stand, US navy along with Australia can cut off the flow of those shipments quite easily.

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@tphuang Sir before I had the same Feeling BUT now with Neocon occupying key position in the US, I have my doubt.

tphuang said:

Even if China has largest carrier groups with a bunch of J-31s, it would still be naturally in a deficit in any combat scenario if US navy has support from air bases near by. That's why China having bases near by is a great thing.

Today, I see Australia throwing hissy fit just because China signed a security deal with Solomon Islands.

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That's with Solomon Islands being 2000 kms away from Brisbane and close to 3000 km away from Sydney/Canberra. Why would it be this large of a concern for Australia if they intend to have normal peaceful relationship with China?

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Cause for an Imperialist Aussie they considered it as their Sphere of Influence and now they are deputized to include ASEAN as well as Japan is to meek to do so. And for Beijing to put a wrench in their plan aside from SI agreement they need to pull Indonesia out of Western Sphere.

tphuang said:

As I said, the most obvious power players in this region are Malaysia and Indonesia. These countries have traditionally sided with the West due to their need to buy advanced military hardware and technology from Western countries. Now, they are trying to navigate competition between US and China in this region. They are never going to get state of the art military hardware or technology from the West or be respected as equals. Over the next 5 to 10 years, China will be able to offer a full spectrum of state of the art military hardware and advanced technology that Western countries simply won't offer to Indonesia. China is working hard to build its relationship with Muslim countries. Not just in ASEAN but also in the Middle East and Africa. When they can offer security, finance and technology to these countries, that's when these countries will be willing to look to China for leadership.

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Sir Malaysia is a good to have BUT the Big dogs are Thailand and the most important Indonesia. Malacca is situated mostly in Indonesia controlled region IF they were strong enough foreign powers are not needed. They can block it by sinking ships in key choke points or threatened it with missile even a simple cheap MLRS.

There are currently a Hybrid War going on in Indonesia, In Irian Jaya led by the Aussies, China threat is just a cover as their main concern are the 200 million Muslim Indonesian. Just look at the Distance between them and the city of Darwin , the reason why East Timor was pry off. Those Nuclear submarine are there to defend against any military adventurism coming from Indonesia not China.
Please check below the 3 possible defensive line that the Australian Sub plan to patrol, all within the territory of Indonesia. And I hope @bajingan who is an Indonesian can add more.

Coalescence said:

Another possible factor why they can't do a blockade, even if the US manage to fully decouple and/or set things up so that they don't feel any pain from blockade, is the geopolitical risk of blocking trade between China and other countries. Many countries rely on China as their main trading partner, and would face massive economic consequences if such a blockade were to happen. So if the US were to unilaterally declare a blockade, it will gain the ire of many countries, especially the ones that want to stay neutral.

If the US want to declare a successful blockade, it will need the backing of almost all of ASEAN, and help them decouple from China. Which I don't see how they can do that, especially when their closest allies like South Korea and Japan is even heavily dependent on exports and imports from China.

Even with the naval blockade, China could still scrape by trading with countries that they share a land border with, It might be even possible to bypass the blockade through those countries by proxy. Anyways, I don't think the US should pursue a blockade, its very costly to maintain and there are too many hidden risk that can come out of it. It would be beneficial instead to keep the current status quo, and expand their influence through military, by hyping up the "China threat".

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They can't even stop the Iranians from selling their oil. The idea of a blockade on China is beyond ridiculous. Simply not feasible and unenforceable. No country builds a navy to police shipping vessels. But let's say they blocked the Malacca strait to certain shipping, the Chinese would retaliate by harassing or seizing American ships in the South China Sea. It would be total chaos.

The only real means at their disposal are sanctions, which are more far effective than any blockade anyway.

ansy1968 said:

@tphuang Sir before I had the same Feeling BUT now with Neocon occupying key position in the US, I have my doubt.

Cause for an Imperialist Aussie they considered it as their Sphere of Influence and now they are deputized to include ASEAN as well as Japan is to meek to do so. And for Beijing to put a wrench in their plan aside from SI agreement they need to pull Indonesia out of Western Sphere.

Sir Malaysia is a good to have BUT the Big dogs are Thailand and the most important Indonesia. Malacca is situated mostly in Indonesia controlled region IF they were strong enough foreign powers are not needed. They can block it by sinking ships in key choke points or threatened it with missile even a simple cheap MLRS.

There are currently a Hybrid War going on in Indonesia, In Irian Jaya led by the Aussies, China threat is just a cover as their main concern are the 200 million Muslim Indonesian. Just look at the Distance between them and the city of Darwin , the reason why East Timor was pry off. Those Nuclear submarine are there to defend against any military adventurism coming from Indonesia not China.
Please check below the 3 possible defensive line that the Australian Sub plan to patrol, all within the territory of Indonesia. And I hope @bajingan who is an Indonesian can add more.

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Would be interested to your source that Australia is behind the issues Indonesia is having in West Papua, cheers.

One more point. I see that China is working with Saudis to build drones locally
These are the kind of things that China can offer to all the larger Muslim countries. Don't just treat them as money pot. Offer to build up local industries in both military and technology field. Indonesia is a huge country with a large GDP than Saudi Arabia. It has the 4th largest population in the world. It will continue to grow its economy and military. It's luckwarm about the KF-21 and has spent a lot of money recently on Rafale and F-15s. I think things like FC-31 and large UCAVs like CH-7 would be things they can offer to Indonesia that they can't get elsewhere. And they can do it in a way that builds up local industries.

ansy1968 said:

Cause for an Imperialist Aussie they considered it as their Sphere of Influence and now they are deputized to include ASEAN as well as Japan is to meek to do so. And for Beijing to put a wrench in their plan aside from SI agreement they need to pull Indonesia out of Western Sphere.

Sir Malaysia is a good to have BUT the Big dogs are Thailand and the most important Indonesia. Malacca is situated mostly in Indonesia controlled region IF they were strong enough foreign powers are not needed. They can block it by sinking ships in key choke points or threatened it with missile even a simple cheap MLRS.

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I didn't mention Thailand because they already have a good relationship with them. If Thailand can't get F-35s, then China needs to aggressively pitch FC-31s there. Very strategically located. Long coast line. Large local Chinese population and a lot of Chinese business there that will only keep growing.

Of course, Philippines and Malaysia are also important in the region. They can keep building their financial, technological and military relationship with these countries that have more cultural link with them. Again, resolve the island issues they have with these 2 countries. They've given up historical claims before to settle borders with many countries. No reason they can't do that now I think these countries have accepted that the expanded and militarized islands are not going away.

ansy1968 said:

There are currently a Hybrid War going on in Indonesia, In Irian Jaya led by the Aussies, China threat is just a cover as their main concern are the 200 million Muslim Indonesian. Just look at the Distance between them and the city of Darwin , the reason why East Timor was pry off. Those Nuclear submarine are there to defend against any military adventurism coming from Indonesia not China.
Please check below the 3 possible defensive line that the Australian Sub plan to patrol, all within the territory of Indonesia. And I hope @bajingan who is an Indonesian can add more.

Click to expand...

I don't know anything about Indonesia/Australia conflict. The time I went to Bali, I did see how disrespectful Aussie tourists were to locals. To me, that's emblem of how Aussies think about their role in the region. This is despite the fact that Australia's GDP is only 40% higher than Indonesia's GDP. I guess they have an overly high sense of their importance due to their partnership with America. If you ask me, it's a country that can't even defend itself against wild animals.

Indonesia is exactly the kind of country that Western powers overlook and will never favor due to its large Muslim population. China can do well for itself by building up.

nixdorf said:

They can't even stop the Iranians from selling their oil. The idea of a blockade on China is beyond ridiculous. Simply not feasible and unenforceable. No country builds a navy to police shipping vessels. But let's say they blocked the Malacca strait to certain shipping, the Chinese would retaliate by harassing or seizing American ships in the South China Sea. It would be total chaos.

The only real means at their disposal are sanctions, which are more far effective than any blockade anyway.

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That's because US is not actively at war with Iran. America can easily blockade Iran if they are actually at war with Iran. And they do have the power to block China too. Do you think US depends on commercial ships going through South China Sea for their energy and natural resource needs? Take a look at the map and you will know the answer to that.

Pusser01 said:

Would be interested to your source that Australia is behind the issues Indonesia is having in West Papua, cheers.

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@Pusser01 Bro 2 articles below, STATING the need for Australia to act, A pretext to intervene, Sounds like another East Timorese incident the Balkanization of Indonesia. Mind If I ask IF you're an Australian, cause come on Mate! let's be honest, It's obvious the Indonesian are the one causing the Aussies sleepless night.

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Australia would do well to curtail any Chinese involvement in the violent guerrilla war waging ever louder in West Papua. Australia should no longer sit idly by ...

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May 15, 2021 — First, in a situation as serious as that of West Papua, Australia, ... Whereas Australia's involvement in the East Timor crisis led to long ..

tphuang said:

One more point. I see that China is working with Saudis to build drones locally

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These are the kind of things that China can offer to all the larger Muslim countries. Don't just treat them as money pot. Offer to build up local industries in both military and technology field. Indonesia is a huge country with a large GDP than Saudi Arabia. It has the 4th largest population in the world. It will continue to grow its economy and military. It's luckwarm about the KF-21 and has spent a lot of money recently on Rafale and F-15s. I think things like FC-31 and large UCAVs like CH-7 would be things they can offer to Indonesia that they can't get elsewhere. And they can do it in a way that builds up local industries.

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And Sir the Pakistani will be a great help, they know how to market it and to apply the lipstick to make it attractive...lol kudos to them.

tphuang said:

I didn't mention Thailand because they already have a good relationship with them. If Thailand can't get F-35s, then China needs to aggressively pitch FC-31s there. Very strategically located. Long coast line. Large local Chinese population and a lot of Chinese business there that will only keep growing.

Of course, Philippines and Malaysia are also important in the region. They can keep building their financial, technological and military relationship with these countries that have more cultural link with them. Again, resolve the island issues they have with these 2 countries. They've given up historical claims before to settle borders with many countries. No reason they can't do that now I think these countries have accepted that the expanded and militarized islands are not going away.

Click to expand...

Sir within the region we (Philippine) have an unsettled border problem with Malaysia and is more important than the SCS, the SABAH issue, it was put in back burner by instruction of the US BUT it will be always be a contentious issue because most of the resident in Sabah are Tausug with cultural and historical links in Sulu archipelago. Right now Malaysia is playing both side cause the US can use the Sabah card IF Malaysia stray to close to China, that's why without consultation they automatic join TPP and RCEP recently.

tphuang said:

I don't know anything about Indonesia/Australia conflict. The time I went to Bali, I did see how disrespectful Aussie tourists were to locals. To me, that's emblem of how Aussies think about their role in the region. This is despite the fact that Australia's GDP is only 40% higher than Indonesia's GDP. I guess they have an overly high sense of their importance due to their partnership with America. If you ask me, it's a country that can't even defend itself against wild animals.

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Indonesia is exactly the kind of country that Western powers overlook and will never favor due to its large Muslim population. China can do well for itself by building up.

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Sir The US had a lot on its plate within ASEAN only Singapore answer the call, for them to deputized Australia is a big strategic mistake, As you indicated above, we in the region view them as an Interloper rather than ASIAN.

For the first time in its history, a Japan MFA's poll amongst ASEAN nations have China as the most important partner with 48%. Japan is second at 43%. This is a big change from 3 years ago when Japan was at 51% and China was at 48%.
here is Zhao Lijian's tweet on this
Small lead, but plenty of China to build on.

As I've said, this is the region China needs to focus on. From my trips to ASEAN countries, it seems to me that Japan was always regarded as important because of the high tech products like cars that they export to these countries. Japanese automakers seriously dominate in these markets. With China's high tech growth in cars and other areas, this is where China can really gain in importance in the region. Keep in mind that it takes time for people outside of China to catch onto China's development. Also, keep in mind that the Chinese military is probably regarded as a lot weaker than Western ones by the people of these countries. Military, finance and tech powers matter a lot to people's view of your country. As such, one would think that China would continue to grow here and Japan/SK to continue to fall.

And here is another problem for Japan and South Korea (and Taiwan for that matter). People aren't having any kids. Declining working age population is typically disastrous for a country's economic strength. That along with impending collapse of their auto industry, Japan and SK are in trouble.
here are the numbers per world bank

Unfortunately, China's own fertility rate per woman isn't great. It's at 1.7. About the same level as America and some European countries. I think Chinese gov't needs to completely remove any child birth restrictions and start encouraging birth if it wants to avoid the Japan/SK path.

Here is how things have looked for the Japanese economy even before the impending auto industry disaster
IMF estimated Japanese GDP for 2022 is $4.9 trillion. Japan's GDP back in 1994 was $5 trillion. Japan has done nothing in the past 30 years. With the declining labor force, I doubt things will get any better in the next 20 years.

If you look at Singapore's birth rate, they are in dire need of Chinese people to come to their country. That's a situation for Chinese gov't to press Singapore over.

Singapore leaders are careful in not looking like they are siding with the quad over China. For good reason. While they might personally have longer relationship with US and wooing Western multinationals, the people of Singapore are largely ethnic Chinese immigrants who have greater ties to mainland. At present time, it's still very important for Singapore to stay cozy to West so that they can attract all the multinationals fleeing Hong Kong. Let's see what happens in 10 years.
new Chinese ambassador arrives in Singapore

I think over the next 10 years, China needs to start putting the clamps on Singapore. Either they make China their main partner or China will stop allowing people to immigrate to Singapore and sell a lot of J-35s to Malaysia.

tphuang said:

I think over the next 10 years, China needs to start putting the clamps on Singapore. Either they make China their main partner or China will stop allowing people to immigrate to Singapore and sell a lot of J-35s to Malaysia.

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Chinese government can’t prevent emigration.