PLA inventory Tally

well, let's state the obivous first:
1. China is never going to admit how many planes of each type it has (whether it's j-10, j-11 or j-7)
2. You are never going to have a photograph of every single J-10 in service
3. Even if there is, who knows how many of them are PSed?

So, as the backdrop for that, the next question is how can we count J-10s?
The two most common ways are using engine count and established divisions.

Engine count:
- not the easiest thing to keep track of.
- let's just say we got the original batch of al-31fn that China purchased pre-2002 for the prototypes (makes sense, since there would be no other way for the J-10 prototypes to come out if the first batch is the batch of 54)
- then we got the first batch of 54 al-31fn
- then we got the second order of 100 al-31fn, we read that 60 were sent when that Russian article came out in March
- finally, there is an unknown number of WS-10A used for J-10
- You are looking at about 125 engines delivered to CAC by March for the J-10s (10 WS-10A is really not an exceedingly high guess)
- The question is how many of the engines are fitted on J-10
- Nothing is certain, but you can make your own guesses
- with the quick delivery schedule of AL-31FN (basically 100 in less than a year), it gives you an idea of the speed of the production

And second part is based on the number of regiments:
- each Chinese regiment when fully equipped has around 24 to 28 fighters (so, about the same as an American squadron)
- I'm sure you read about the 4 to 5 regiments that have been identified
- the question is whether they are fully equipped as of now, I would say that division 2 and 3 are probably not fully equipped, some of the planes might still be under testing in CAC.

Finally, the most controversial way is probably just listen and accept the counts of the people close to plaaf and has access to classified info.

i would say engine count is the best way.

just my $0.02

yeas, but still only speculations. There are adequate proofs that total of 150 engines are ORDERED. But to fit them to the actual planes, you need "ifs" and "most likelys" to make clear sentenced and we are back to square one...

I wont deny that eventually the first batch is going to be approx. 150 J-10 in service, but when it going to be...I don't know, you dont' know and none knows it for certain....I've stated my case, i think we should move on to other equipment in PLA's inventory...

Gollevainen said:

yeas, but still only speculations. There are adequate proofs that total of 150 engines are ORDERED. But to fit them to the actual planes, you need "ifs" and "most likelys" to make clear sentenced and we are back to square one...

I wont deny that eventually the first batch is going to be approx. 150 J-10 in service, but when it going to be...I don't know, you dont' know and none knows it for certain....I've stated my case, i think we should move on to other equipment in PLA's inventory...

Click to expand...

that's the problem with plaaf, you can never get a hold on its inventory exactly at any particular time. Everyone is going to have their own opinion on it. That's why we have so many arguments on it. It's not just J-10, it's with all their new systems. For example, do we really know exactly how many KJ-2000 have been created? (On a side note, the Y-8AEW is actually called KJ-200.)

I must say the speed of delivery of those second batch of 100 engines is most puzzling. Even more so if that mentioned new contract for 180 more engines of various types actually realises during 2006. Fact is, no one wants to buy lots of engines and then let them sit in a warehouse. Its just bad economics. So chances are china is using up those engines quickly. 100 engines ordered in 2005 are variant that was tailored for j-10, cant be used on any other plane in china. That pieces of news also mentioned 100 more salyut engines. Now those can very well be for j11s or maybe a combo of j11s and j10s. Other 80 engines are more puzzling, as i didnt find any confirmation than umpo produces either engines for il-76 nor engines to be used in fc-1.

But then that would mean that china uses up 100 j10 engines a year. which would mean at least 80 planes a year. and we know that's impossible, right? I think its safe to assume that no ws10s are really being produced for j10, not yet anyway. theres just too many imported engines to go around. So... what else could al31f be put on? not j11, is there anything else left?

a Caveat to that Totoro

If someone were to tell me that China was buying some kinds of equipment, surplus to requirement as a Political Palm greaser for access to higher grades of equipment, I could easily beleive it.

Jet Engines, as a critical part of any countries Aero Industry, would certainly be an area high in that product catagory.

Gollevainen said:

I've stated my case, i think we should move on to other equipment in PLA's inventory...

Click to expand...

Agreed. ive presented my argument, and you have have yours. Lets move one.

Ok, since airplanes seem to be a popular topic, aprroximately how many j-11s does china have? Ive read estimates of around 95, but those are from 2004. It should be higher by now.

Any ideas? I read that sometime in 2005 china made an order for flanker al-31s, but its uncertain whether these are replacements or for new planes.

any j-11s currentl y using ws-10a?

It depends on whether the j11 production was paused or not, like it was widely claimed. More sources seem to point out towards the pause though. And figures of completed planes up to that pause range from 95 to 105 units. That was sometime in 2004. Then it was reported sometime in second half of 2005 that production was continued or to be continued, i clearly remember some article from chinese sources saying how the plan for 2006 is to make 17 more j-11. Allegedly, all these new j-11s made after the pause in production are somewhat more advanced and are in a way preparation for j11b. Perhaps their shell is what j-11 will be made of? perhaps to get the b standard one needs just the indigenous engines and avionics. Anyhow, all this about planes being different than first batch is guessing. There is no real proof. And there have been no report about ws10a being installed on newly produced j11 as a regular part of production process. So i'd guess they're not quite there yet. As for total numbers - it depends on how many were produced up to the pause in 2004 and how how many (if any) were produced in late 2005 after the line was restarted. I would assume that today the total number of produced planes so far is somewhere between 101 and 114.

Troika said:

I really should have done this right at the beginning. But I didn't. I even got carried away myself. But here we are.

A Tally means a count. As in confirmed sightings, official figures, serial counts. Failing all that, and only if you have good reason to do so, estimates based on regimental counts, and each figure must be clearly labelled and given origin. Also may be included is confirmed sightings of ships in construction (clearly marked as such) and foreign deals finalised pending delivery (also clearly marked as such).

NO speculation. That's for some other thread.

Click to expand...

I am not sure what this forum's traditions are regarding threadstarter priviledges, but if there are any, I am remind all and sundry about what this thread is supposed to be about. It's a tally. You want to argue about how the engines will be used, or the relative merits of nationalism, do it elsewhere.

A note on how engine counts are to be used in a tally... They are upper limits. You know China cannot produce more of such and such a type of planes than it has engines. You may speculate on the exact distribution, but if you want to, please clearly mark it as an estimate.

well you see my friend, PRC is the one of the few major military powers that doesen't believe much into openly reported orders of battles. Therefore we cannot discuss over current PLA's inventory countings, if we dont allow discussion to determ the background of each cases of inventory...

for example If you want "offical" invetory of some chinese branch, one could be the lot quoted Weyers Flotten Taschenbuch 2005/2007 listing of PLAN destroyers:

1 DH (Destroyer size helicopter carrier) bulding in Dalian since 2002

2 Project 956EM class Destroyers
2 Project 956E class Destroyers
2 project 052C class destroyers + two more possiply building
2 Project 052B class Destroyers
2 project 051B/C class destroyers (167, 115)
2 project 052 class Destroyers

2 project 051 G2 class Destroyers
2 project 051 DT class destroyers
1 project 051 M class Destroyer
11 project 051 class Destroers

Off course its not what the mainsite&other internet sources tells about PLANs inventory se we have to then enter into firecing depate's over which source is more accurate one.

So in all do respect, leave the determing of what is offtopic and not to the ones that have monopoly to determ that factor in this forum.

On the issue of WS-10A, I think the production rate is around 55 to 60 this year. I found this piece a while back that around that many sets of the parts needed to assemble for WS-10A were getting produced this year.

I don't think J-11A was ever stopped completely. Crobato will tell you that new J-11 regiments have been formed since 2004. From the past year, the rate of production of J-11A vs J-10 is around 1:3 (in terms of regiments formed I think). The reason is that plaaf is not satisfied with the performance of J-11A, so J-11B is plaaf's ideal flanker I guess. How many J-11Bs are getting produced? I think we might get a new regiment each year? Or if you believe in kanwa, 17 is the number.