PLA ICBM Force in 2016

Asymptote said:

I think you are quite naive in your assumption and calculation.

3. In the future IF (BIG IF) this conflict is to occur, its is likely the world is running almost out of resources (and we already are). With Russian hugely weaken (if not devoid almost of no nuclear weapon as it spent it all to overcome ABM) it set itself up as a prime lamb to be slaughter. Russia is rich with resources, and America is already fast running out of resources and still hungry for more everyday (average american energy usage is still increasing steadily). Russian are not stupid. It will be stupid to think America will pass the the chance to get rid of its old prime rival who ALSO HAPPEN TO HAVE THE MOST NATURAL RESOURCES ON EARTH, with low population count (and hence military/army to fight with - especially after nuclear war). Like I said, its fat lamb ready to be strip and slaughter. America will not pass up this chance.
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china lack more resource compare to US. US, if i remember has 3rd largest oil reserve still untaped, top 5 in rare earth, plently fresh water. compare to US, china lack the oil and water that US has.

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Asymptote said:

I think you are quite naive in your assumption and calculation.


When there is a nuclear exchange, its not as simple as "I fire x number of missiles, so I deduct the number I fired and I still have the rest to play with". That's your first erroneous assumption. In a nuclear exchange between Russia and China, both side practically has to throw everything they have at each other, because :

1. China has, and is developing/advancing its ABM systems. With ABM, it is a great equalizer - it means even when Russian have more nuclear warheads/launchers/missiles, it will have to use "mass swarming" to overcome the ABM system to ensure destruction of the other side. Firing one or two at a target the old way is not going to work, because it makes it easy to intercept as ABM advances. Both side will have to throw as many nukes at the target as possible in hope of overcoming the ABM.

2. In a nuclear exchange, its not just firing the missile and "we are all fine and dandy", the incoming missiles will also destroy your silos/missiles/places where you can launch, so, that reduce the number even further.

So it is very costly for Russian to attack China with nukes, it will leave Russia hugely weaken if not make Russian spent almost its entire nuclear arsenals just to ensure it can win the war.

Now, a bit of historical perspective - Just after the cold war ended, the Russians expected huge help from American, but instead, they were given the cold shoulder intentionally, as American sees no reason to help Russian in anyway except in arms reduction treaties to "de-fang" the Russians further while watching Russian's arm industries collapse. It is clear that American wants its strongest rival to weaken and collapse so its easy picking for later. The Russians calls the 90s the "lost decade" and it gave them a new perspective on the world - that American were never meant anything good for Russian. That's the reason why Putin become so wildly popular in Russia even today, even of an idol status.

That brings us to my third point :

3. In the future IF (BIG IF) this conflict is to occur, its is likely the world is running almost out of resources (and we already are). With Russian hugely weaken (if not devoid almost of no nuclear weapon as it spent it all to overcome ABM) it set itself up as a prime lamb to be slaughter. Russia is rich with resources, and America is already fast running out of resources and still hungry for more everyday (average american energy usage is still increasing steadily). Russian are not stupid. It will be stupid to think America will pass the the chance to get rid of its old prime rival who ALSO HAPPEN TO HAVE THE MOST NATURAL RESOURCES ON EARTH, with low population count (and hence military/army to fight with - especially after nuclear war). Like I said, its fat lamb ready to be strip and slaughter. America will not pass up this chance.

Also, to Martian, the reason why Russia/China/USA don't want war with each other, is because its most likely to benefit the side that sits it out. The winner of the duel will be FAR TOO WEAK TO FEND OFF AN ATTACK FROM BYSTANDER. History has shown that when super powers goes into war and weakens each other, it only benefits the bystanders.

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IronsightSniper said:

You're very naive to think the Russians didn't prepare for this (they did). Russia is the leader in anti-ABM technologies with an array of evasion techs that the TOPOL-M features, which includes counter-laser and evasive maneuvers. Whatever ABM China has, it's probably inferior to the U.S.'s ABM in operational capability, so even if China has any competent ABMs around, it's laughable to think without any evidence that they'll be in any numbers to make a difference.

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Also, whatever Silos China happens to know about in Russia, are probably hardened silos. China is not known to have accurate nukes, usually more than 500 m CEP, it's highly unlikely that China would even hit a Russian silo close enough to knock it out. Next, Russia specializes in TELs. In fact, over 55% of the Russian ICBMs are Mobile. So, if China does manage to even find any Silos, and then manage to even hit it, Russia still has more than enough nukes to eradicate China and then the world a few times over.

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Finally, it's laughable that you think Russia will be weakened. They won't be as big or strong overall as the U.S. or China but they'll keep a massive modernized nuclear force laying around, and they'd pay for it. They have very large Energy reserves and more than enough space in Siberia to turn it into one big Algae farm.

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Like I've said, Russians aren't stupid, if they could kill China or the U.S., they'd kill China. The emerging Superpower in the world and constant stealer of their technologies. The Russians have more to gain pairing with the U.S. then they do with China. They will thus, nuke China, and we'd be in a China-free world. The thing about history though, China is the Superpower. They decide to lay idle while everyone surrounds them and takes pieces of them away, so be it.

It's best that this never happens, though.

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IronsightSniper said:

You're very naive to think the Russians didn't prepare for this (they did). Russia is the leader in anti-ABM technologies with an array of evasion techs that the TOPOL-M features, which includes counter-laser and evasive maneuvers. Whatever ABM China has, it's probably inferior to the U.S.'s ABM in operational capability, so even if China has any competent ABMs around, it's laughable to think without any evidence that they'll be in any numbers to make a difference.

Also, whatever Silos China happens to know about in Russia, are probably hardened silos. China is not known to have accurate nukes, usually more than 500 m CEP, it's highly unlikely that China would even hit a Russian silo close enough to knock it out. Next, Russia specializes in TELs. In fact, over 55% of the Russian ICBMs are Mobile. So, if China does manage to even find any Silos, and then manage to even hit it, Russia still has more than enough nukes to eradicate China and then the world a few times over.

Finally, it's laughable that you think Russia will be weakened. They won't be as big or strong overall as the U.S. or China but they'll keep a massive modernized nuclear force laying around, and they'd pay for it. They have very large Energy reserves and more than enough space in Siberia to turn it into one big Algae farm. Like I've said, Russians aren't stupid, if they could kill China or the U.S., they'd kill China. The emerging Superpower in the world and constant stealer of their technologies. The Russians have more to gain pairing with the U.S. then they do with China. They will thus, nuke China, and we'd be in a China-free world. The thing about history though, China is the Superpower. They decide to lay idle while everyone surrounds them and takes pieces of them away, so be it.

It's best that this never happens, though.

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kroko said:

first how many ABM russia has and how effective are they?

what do you know about china´s ICBM CEP ??

As for the rest, if i wanted to engage in country-bashing threads, ill go to MP.net. I dont want to see "(insert country)-free world" stuff here.

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