PLA Air Force news, pics and videos

This is a massive expansion plan, if I am reading the map correctly.
It also suggests SAC is moving out of the city and into an area near the town of Xinchengzi, does it?

It'd be nice if someone who can actually read Chinese helped, so i don't need to interpret it solely from the images.
but if I had to guess, by 2024 part of the relocation would be finished. Then by 2030 all the relocation would be finished, with the new facility being on a visibly larger area (possibly 50% larger?)
Then by 2035 the last round of expansion would be done, with the overall combined area being easily over 3 times the current SAC facilities area.

Either SAC is gonna get some major contracts with the PLA, for much more planes than it'd producing for them now, or it's going to get a huge chunk of the future domestic airliner production. Or a bit of both.

Totoro said:

This is a massive expansion plan, if I am reading the map correctly.
It also suggests SAC is moving out of the city and into an area near the town of Xinchengzi, does it?

It'd be nice if someone who can actually read Chinese helped, so i don't need to interpret it solely from the images.
but if I had to guess, by 2024 part of the relocation would be finished. Then by 2030 all the relocation would be finished, with the new facility being on a visibly larger area (possibly 50% larger?)
Then by 2035 the last round of expansion would be done, with the overall combined area being easily over 3 times the current SAC facilities area.

Either SAC is gonna get some major contracts with the PLA, for much more planes than it'd producing for them now, or it's going to get a huge chunk of the future domestic airliner production. Or a bit of both.

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They do intend to tap into the general aviation assembly and civil aviation key component production market and more. The overall investment is 13.9 billion yuan, which is pretty nice if they can achieve the outlined goals with that little amount of investment.

Deino said:

Can we come back to the topic, which is the J-10!!?

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Aviation week has a new article putting J-10 production rate at 24 per year for the last six years. Total fighters delivered averaged 85 per year. In 2021, 24 J-10, 18 J-20, 10 J-15, 30 J-16, and 3 J-11. If 2013 = J10B and 2014+ = J-10C, then J-10C total = 238. J-10 production should end before 2035.

kentchang said:

Aviation week has a new article putting J-10 production rate at 24 per year for the last six years. Total fighters delivered averaged 85 per year. In 2021, 24 J-10, 18 J-20, 10 J-15, 30 J-16, and 3 J-11. If 2013 = J10B and 2014+ = J-10C, then J-10C total = 238. J-10 production should end before 2035.

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I've never seen Chinese combat aircraft production so cleanly provided. Do you have a link to this article.

Deino said:

I would love to see this report, however a production rate of 45 (?) J-11 in 2012 and 2013 seem unrealistically high!?

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I think one must sign up. The bulk of the long article by Bradlee Perrett is about China's emphasis on heavy fighters (only 18% of money for medium weight J-10), the estimate for total J-20A is 94. Perhaps a future J-20 with a bulge at bottom like F-35 for strike missions sacrificing stealth. A J-10D is probably in the works with vector thrust. Retirement of all remaining 226 J-7 and 146 J-8 by 2027 at current production rate.

tphuang said:

Aviation week is simply wrong. There are about 250 J-10B/C right now. If we consider 2014 as the first year of full non j-10A production, then they produced a little over 30 J-10B/C a year over these years.

Let's just put it this way. CAC announced that it delivered more aircraft than ever in 2021. This chart clearly does not show it.

I don't see how J-10 production for PLA can extend into 2030s. My guess is that it stops after 2025. They have need for another 100 J-10s. Afterward, they need to work on upgrading J-10As and J-10Cs with more modern avionics and multi-role capabilities.

That is where they should be focused. Now that J-20 is being introduced in large numbers, J-10s should take on more ground attack and SEAD missions. Keep in mind, the inner pylons can only carry pods and bombs. There is a real utility in having J-10s in that role.

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The Aviation Week total for J-10B/C is about 228 so a difference of 22 is in the same ball park. The article quoted Wang Haifeng's timeline of a 6th Gen plane in AF service by 2035 so a prototype towards late 2020's and a J-10D with TVC before production stops.

CATIC shows off a "Stand-alone Weapon Fire Control System" at the Saudi Arabia International Defense Show. I'm guessing this is basically a weapon pylon with built-in fire control. No need to extensively re-wire an aircraft to take advantage of new weapons, just pop this on.

by78 said:

CATIC shows off a "Stand-alone Weapon Fire Control System" at the Saudi Arabia International Defense Show. I'm guessing this is basically a weapon pylon with built-in fire control. No need to extensively re-wire an aircraft to take advantage of new weapons, just pop this on.

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So this could be the ideal fix for the ventral hardpoints on J10?

That aviation week article seems to be based on just as much guesswork as an average post on an internet forum. And I'd wager that there are people on this very forum that have been following the developments on numbers and production changes to PLAAF over the last decade more closely than that author.

Deino may, for example, correct me - but a more realistic production numbers for 2021 alone would/should be:
30-ish J10C (some going to Pakistan, but that's besides the point)
several J10S
30 or so J-16
10 or so J-15
Probably zero J-11
25-30 or so J-20
(and 10 or so H-6, though those haven't been mentioned by the av.week text)

So that'd amount to 100-110 tactical jets, plus the H-6 bombers.

In 2012, the av. week text claims some 32 J-10 and as many as 44 J-11. That's very unlikely as well. J-11 production likely never strayed much over 24 per year. Possibly hitting 30 for a brief year. J-10 production of all variants was by then also a bit higher, possibly closer to 40. J-15 production was ongoing back then. Possibly only several airframes, but still. Overall total being maybe 70-ish tactical planes. Plus the H-6.

Av.week article basically has it backwards. In 2012 China was procuring fewer planes than today.

SanWenYu said:

So this could be the ideal fix for the ventral hardpoints on J10?

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This would be ideal for exports. J-10 with targeting pods and radar system should be sufficient for delivering A2G weaponry.