Well 2-3 Y-9s is 24-36 Y-9s per year.
If we take a lower estimate of 20 Y-9s per year (or slightly over 1.5 Y-9s per month), which I think is a minimum realistic estimate for the production rate, if they allocate production of 6 GX-6s out of the 20, then it will be 10 years until they get 60 (or by 2026), but it's likely the production number of GX-6s will vary year to year, depending on demand for AEW&C and other special variants as well as demand for the standard transport Y-9.
Some hypothetical transient assumptions can be that the Air Force requires ~10 standard Y-9 transports per year, and that 4-6 Y-9 airframes per year are allocated to non-GX-6 special mission variants such as KJ-500 or various EW/ECM or ELINT/SIGINT roles, and if we keep in mind KJ-500 production will probably end within a year or two, likely when they reach a total airframe production run of 10-12 birds, and if we also accept that demand for other GX variants will probably be relatively low...
... Well based on those assumptions, personally I expect that initial production of GX-6s to be relatively low, perhaps only 4-6 per year for a year or two (this year, and maybe next) as Naval Aviation develops the core skills, expertise, doctrine for the aircraft, as well as some allocation of airframes to KJ-500.
But by 2018 I think they can increase production and commissioning rate to 10 aircraft per year, or possibly even more if the overall Y-9 airframe production rate also increases.
So I think it is quite viable by the early 2020s that there will be 50-60 aircraft in service, which would be quite a capable core fleet of ASW MPAs, especially considering their large size and endurance, and considering if most will likely be operating relatively close to China's coast initially to conduct ASW operations there as a more significant priority.
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Obviously it would be best if Naval Aviation could get 60 GX-6s in a couple of years lol, but we should remember that these things do take some time.
Back in 2004-2006 I'm sure people were hoping that the military could get a fleet of 20 or more AEW&C planes in service within a few years as well, but the truth is that just isn't fully realistic and it takes some time to develop the skills, expertise, and doctrine for these planes. But between then and now, we see the military's aviation fleet now does have basically large/medium sized 20+ AEW&C planes in service from virtually nothing, which over the span of a decade is not bad at all.
I expect a similar degree of expansion for the Y-8GX6, but likely significantly greater and at a faster pace not only because of better funding, preparation, and requirement for ASW MPAs, but also because of the slightly less complex nature of ASW MPAs themselves compared to AEW&C and the existing array of more mature technologies that can be leveraged for ASW MPAs.
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