The riddle of China's Area 51
August 14, 2006
On the internet, a little mystery can go a long way.
Six weeks ago, a man living in Germany and calling himself KenGrok, announced a fascinating discovery on a Google Earth Community forum.
Poring over satellite images of China on the free Google Earth service, he came across a strange plot of land - approximately 900m by 700m, about the size of six Sydney Cricket Grounds.
The land, which KenGrok reckoned was landscape that had been modelled for military purposes, is situated near the town of Huangyangtan about 35km from Yinchuan, the capital of the autonomous region of Ningxia, in northern China.
Nearby, there is a substantial facility complete with rows of red-roofed buildings, scores of what look to be military trucks and a large compound with elevated lookout posts and a large communications tower.
The land was contoured in a way that was out of sync with the surrounding countryside.
It appeared to be a mountainous region, complete with snow-capped peaks and glacial valleys dotted with numerous lakes.
Yet this swatch of land was slap bang in the middle of a largely arid area due west of the rich alluvial plains bordering the upper reaches of the Yellow River.
A fellow Google Earth enthusiast suggested that the topography of the model indicated that this was probably land on one of China's frontiers.
KenGrok went looking and two weeks later came back with the answer. The swatch was a scale model of 157,500 sq km of territory in and around China's Aksai Chin border region that abuts India and Pakistan.
The scale is exactly 500:1.
Tim Brown, a senior fellow specialising in satellite imagery analysis at GlobalSecurity.org, said it was one of the more intriguing discoveries he'd come across.
He said while he was aware of military trainers using terrain models, these were most only a much smaller scale.
"These days, while terrain modelling is not completely obsolete, they do rely much more on computer-based simulation," he said.
That's not to say that the Chinese, with their vast pool of manpower, have scrapped the practise.
Last week a reader posted a link on our own MashUp blog which led to a Chinese site - wforum.com - where in late July a reader has posted a photo showing men in blue overalls on what looks to be another large-scale terrain model.
The caption does not clearly state where or when the photo was taken but it is watermarked "Xinhua" - the New China News Agency, China's state-run new agency.
Although the land on which the model is based Chinese territory, it is also claimed by India and the two sides fought a brief war over the area in 1962.
Covering an area the size of Switzerland, the Aksai Chin region is a high altitude desert plateau. It contains a strategically important highway 219 that connects the far north western province of Xinjiang with Tibet.
While that explained what this man-made landscape was, it didn't explain why there was a need to construct such an elaborate terrain model some 2400km to the east.
In the ensuing month, debate and discussion has raged across the length and breadth of the world wide web.
The story has been reported across the world in many languages by bloggers and news websites. It's become the topic of discussion on forums, blogs and bulletin boards.
Everyone from conspiracy theorists to model railway enthusiasts has joined in the debate, marvelling at the size and complexity of the structure and speculating as to its purpose.
Among the many theories doing the rounds are that the terrain model is:
:: A navigation/gunnery training area where drones drop small flour or paint bombs in an exercise to simulate trajectories and dispersal patterns.
:: A model of the catchment areas of China's major river systems, simulating the effects of climate change.
:: A model to study the dispersal patterns for chemical or biological weapons.
:: A large-scale mini putt-putt course
The Indian Express newspaper website last week quoted an unnamed Indian officer who had served in the region saying that while the military was aware that the Chinese had training facilities to prepare its forces in the event of an outbreak of hostilities in the disputed region, "the scale and detail is something new to us".
Still the mystery remains unsolved. Why is it there? How long has it been there? And how is it used.
When the Beijing correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age contacted local officials last month, she was told that the area is a tank training facility that had been there for seven or eight years.
But this theory is dismissed by GlobalSecurity,org's Tim Brown who says that the scale of the model is just too small.
Moreover, as the actual land which the model represents is on a plateau 5000m above sea level, it would make tank warfare difficult if not impossible.
However, he did say there is evidence of a live fire range and a tank training course further to the north of the terrain model.
Brown says that that the facility is unlikely to be a hold over from the 1962 conflict. He points out the lack of vegetation around the base, indicating that it was only recently constructed.
The size of the model also means that it is unsuitable for training pilots - unless they use it as a walk-through terrain visualisation training exercise.
All of which lead Brown to speculate that the model is all about what he calls "perception management."
"It could be that it's just there as a morale builder, " he says.. "I mean look, even I'm impressed by what they've done."