Obsessions with Engine "Chrysanthemums"

Deino said:

No, IMO in no way! Why should there be any reason to assume a prototype should already be tested yet? From all we know it will take some more time and indeed I expect either the WS-15 at first on the Il-76LL or a J-11B if this type will ever fit. Otherwise I expect a WS-15 not before 3 years from now on in a J-20.

Click to expand...

Because that happened with the WS-10? The prototype was tested on the J-10 and was eventually rejected? And putting it on a J-11B, like I've said before, it's plausible that it would be tested there first, but not necessarily on the Il-76LL, since the Il-76 is a heavy lift aircraft, not a fighter plane, and thus cannot test the WS-15 on all flight regimes.

What I am saying is not "J-20B is coming in the next 3 years", but rather that we will possibly see WS-15s in the same status on the J-20 as the WS-10 on the J-10 (not even the J-10A, just the prototype). If the WS-15 tests are successful, we will see production J-20 flying with WS-15 within 5 years. If it's not, it's back to the drawing board, as happened with the WS-10.

And please note the "weasel words" or qualifications. According to latenlazy and Blitzo, there is 0 chance of the WS-15 entering flight testing on the J-20 in the next 3 years. Where I disagree is that I think there is a non-zero chance, to begin with, and some evidence that suggests the J-20 may be testing a WS-15 sooner rather than later. I am not saying that the J-20 will be sprouting WS-15 affirmatively, or that the J-20B will be inducted in the next 3 years, but rather that prototype tests will be conducted as with the WS-10 on the J-10 prototype.

===

The other thing is, testing a WS-15 on a J-20 first implies that the J-20 is mature enough a platform to be used for flight tests. While there are definitely greater risks involved (if the J-20 goes down, it's $110m down the drain), there are also greater rewards, as not only can you test the WS-15, you can also test the FCS integration. I think claiming that a J-11 will test the WS-15 first implies that the J-20 platform has not reached basic maturity, whereas we know that the PLAAF has inducted the J-20.

I'm not saying that we won't see the WS-15 first on some other platform; there are good reasons to test it on the J-11 first (lower risk) or even on a transport (even lower risk), but it is possible that the WS-15 will be tested on the J-20 first.

It's almost certain it will be tested on something like an Il-76 quad-engine first. Later tests are likely to happen with a dual engine fighter aircraft. The question is whether the WS-15 engine dimensions changed a lot vs the AL-31/WS-10 or not. If you can't fit the new WS-15 engine on a J-11 platform they might simply opt to directly make a J-20 prototype which can accommodate the engine to expedite things.