North Korea 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' (군사정찰위성 1호)

Rocket stage recovery

Normally, recovery of rocket stages are governed by international laws. But, South Korea will not return the stolen Chollima SLV stage, as it sees the launch as a breach of previous UNSC resolutions. While having itself launched over the last years 3 Nuri SLVs in a row as it pleases totally unchecked. Of course, the more advanced technology of the DPRK might be the real reason behind this noonday highway robbery, in light of how inefficient the Nuri's turbopumps are.


▲ Part of what the North Korean space launch vehicle that crashed into the sea off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula on Wednesday morning after being recovered by South Korea the same day.


▲ The SK Joint Chiefs of Staff recovered a North Korean space launch vehicle stage in the waters 200 km west of Eocheong Island this morning.


▲ Recovery operation by SK of a Chollima SLV stage.

The recovered cylindrical interstage indicates that 1st stage and 2nd stage have similar diameters, unlike the conical interstage of the previous Unha SLV.

12. Conclusion

The first stage having performed properly, this mission is rated as a 25% success.

Space is hard.

Wednesday is school day. For the next launch attempt, by choosing instead a weekend or holiday, under the direct guidance of General Kim Ju Ae, the Malligyong-1#2 《만리경 1호#2》 (10'000 Li Telescope 1 Unit 2, “万里镜－１”号#2) satellite should be placed into orbit with success next time.

▲ Close up of coastal launch pad on May 31, 2023.

The South Korean Navy is trying to recover the 15-meter part that currently lies at a depth of 75 meters underwater in the Yellow Sea. The retrieval may take two more days.


▲ From South Korean media reports the object ROK is attempting to recover is 15m long which if that is second stage then possible one of these two sections of the second stage. · Jun 1, 2023

Official picture of the launch


▲ Official picture of Chollima-1 SLV launched from Sohae LC-2. (Juche112.6.1.)


▲ Official picture of Chollima-1 SLV launched from Sohae LC-2. (Juche112.6.1.)


▲ Provisional CGI rendering of the Chollima-1 SLV.

Four engines are clearly visible in the first stage. Burning likely the same N2O4/UDMH of the Hwasong-17 ICBM. Also Sohae LC-2 is identified as the launchpad. Diameter and height are still debated in the media.
Absence of frost rules out a cryogenic second stage or third stage.

Most recent estimations:

Payload fairing is about 3 meters in diameter.


▲ Provisional CGI rendering of the Chollima-1 SLV compared to the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM and Unha SLV.

Photogrammetric Measurement and Analysis


▲ April 15, 2017 picture. Center: notice an Unha-3 represented left of a huge (meaning at least twice the size) Unha-9 model!

Rough estimations:

Unha-3 first stage is ~8 pixel in diameter, for a known 2.4 meters

Unha-3 third stage is ~4 pixel in diameter, for a known 1.25 meters


Unha-9 first stage is ~9 pixel in diameter, therefore ~2.7 meters

Unha-9 third stage is ~6 pixel in diameter, therefore ~1.9 meters

Unha-9 total height is ~69 pixels, therefore ~37.7 meters

Conclusion this artistic representation suggests a ~3 meters diameter first stage and ~2 meters diameter third stage, perfectly fitting the previous assessments for the Unha-9.

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9.1. Numeromancy

We will use a powerful tool to predict the date of the launch window of this 6th North Korean attempt at placing a functional satellite into orbit!

'Numeromancy' is a cutting-edge predictive OSINT technique focussed on finding clues for future world events through the study of the science of numbers.


Analysis of past launches:


Forecast of next favorable lucky date for launch windows:

31 May (2023): 3+1+5=9
3 June (2023): 3+6=9
2 July (2023): 2+7=9
1 August (2023): 1+8=9
1 December (20)23: 1+1+2+2+3=9
2 January (20)24: 2+1+2+4=9
8 January (2024): 8+1=9
1 February (20)24: 1+2+2+4=9
7 February (2024): 7+2=9

The name Malligyong-1 《만리경-1호》 (10'000 Li Telescope 1 Unit 1, “萬里鏡－１”号#1) means a telescope. The name Cholligyong (천리경, 1'000 Li Telescope, 千里鏡), was what telescopes were called in the late Choson period when they were first imported in 1609 from the Great Ming Dynasty of China.

Payload fairing is about 3 meters in diameter, larger than the first stage. This could mean the Chollima-1 SLV it is intended to place multiple satellites into orbit in a single launch.

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▲ North Korea’s disclosed space launchers: Paektusan-1, Unha-2, Unha-3, Kwangmyongsong (Unha-4), Chollima-1. · Jun 2, 2023


▲ Orbital launch attempts (12/13) by both North Korea and South Korea, as of 31st May 2023. · Jun 3, 2023

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Future Notice

South Korea's early launches used a Russian lower stage. Only recently have they switched to their own design. It kind of looks like US Thor/Delta launcher. But it seems to work quite well. The latest North Korean launcher also seems surprisingly more advanced than their older ones, but they still haven't gotten it to work quite right just yet.

12. Rocket stage recovery




▲ Youtube Video @T=31s: 동체에 '천마'…북 2단 추진체 보름 만에 인양 / SBS 8뉴스 Jun 16, 2023

Provisional Photogrammetric Measurement and Analysis

By resizing all internet CGI of the Chollima-1 SLV with the official KCNA picture's second stage diameter, it is obvious that the usual paid trolls have been busy lately. And with ulterior motives.

These are the ones listed by google search.

Indeed, none of them have respected the proportions of the 3 stages and fairings. Not to mention the farcical undersized diameters.

Consequently the resulting total length of the Chollima-1 SLV vary from about 27 meters to about 60 meters.

And the number of first stage engines vary from 1 to 4.

Note that South Korean media report a total length of about 30 meters and 4 engines in the first stage.


▲ Lineup of internet CGIs of the Chollima-1 SLV with the official KCNA picture (2nd and 3rd from left).

As for the recovered stage, is can not be the rocket's second stage as reported by South Korea for the following reasons:

• The visible cable raceway on the conical part does support the assumption that the part is an intertank section. From Unha to Hwasongpho-17, cable raceway is not visible on interstage section.

• There is no second stage engine in the conical part, not because it fell off during the impact at sea but because it is an intertank section.
During 1st stage and second stage separation procedure, the conical part should have been severed by explosive circumferential charge from the 2.8 meter first stage. But it is still attached to both the upper 2.3 m part and bottom 2.8 m section.

• Kerbal Space simulation youtube video shows that the recovered debris is the upper part of the first stage. The 2.8 meter section is simply too small to be the first stage, it would not provide enough delta-V.
T= 44 minutes and 42 seconds.

• Conclusion, the recovered debris is the first stage upper part, with the bottom and the 4 Paektusan-1D engines missing.
The first stage oxidizer and fuel tanks are of different diameters.


▲ Provisional CGI rendering of the Chollima-1 SLV compared to the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM, Unha SLV and CZ-2C.

The 2.3 meter diameter and 2.5 meter long interstage section is where the second stage engine was located before stage separation.

It gives out the dimension of the Paektusan-1B engine.

The debris of the second stage are not in the vicinity of the recovered first stage but outside of the NOTAM's designated impact zone, and much further south or east, since the high altitude vacuum engine was ignited and has burned a few seconds before failing.

gelgoog said:

South Korea's early launches used a Russian lower stage. Only recently have they switched to their own design. It kind of looks like US Thor/Delta launcher. But it seems to work quite well. The latest North Korean launcher also seems surprisingly more advanced than their older ones, but they still haven't gotten it to work quite right just yet.

Click to expand...

The Chollima-1 SLV is nothing South Korea can boast about, nor even China before its 31st launch in 1990 with the introduction of the CZ-2E SLV, that came only 20 years after its first CZ-1 SLV.

Indeed, once again, the liftoff thrust of the chollima-1 SLV is 320-tf developed by 4 Paektusan-1D engines of 80-tf. Compared to the South Korean Nuri's 4 engines of 75-tf totalling only 300-tf.

Prior to the CZ-2E SLV of 5923-tf, China most powerful launchers (CZ-2D/2, CZ-3A, CZ-4A) could only develop 2962-tf at liftoff.

Make no mistake, North Korea is such a heavyweight that the Chollima-class SLV is said to be capable to send an astronaut into LEO!

Such powerful thrust is enough to easily place a 2-tons-class Shuguang-1 type manned-space capsule into space:


▲ “曙光一号”载人飞船（代号714工程），有两名航天员驾驶，最长飞行时间为八天，争取1973年发射无人飞船，1974年发射载人飞船。而“曙光一号”的运载火箭，就准备用“东风-6”号环球导弹。

Look at the picture below : the mythological Chollima flying horse on the right, and an astronaut spacewalking along a manned space launcher on the left.

Notice that the space launcher has same diameter for the first stage and second stage. Something not seen yet in the current Chollima-1 SLV.


▲ 조선소년단창립 77돐경축 학생소년들의 종합공연 《고마운 우리 해님》 진행 (1). June 6 this year marks the 77th founding anniversary of the Korean Children’s Union. Taken on June 6, 2023

The represented rocket has 3 portholes indicative of a manned space launcher. This depiction is not new, and is only making its return this year after several years in hiatus due to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemics.


▲ 朝鲜版使者三号戊型（Safir-3E）或宝座号丙型（Sarir-C）运载火箭。 Our Dream 우리의 꿈. 2019年3月18日。

After several rocket engine static tests conducted at Sohae SLC to fix the problems affecting the unstable engine of the second stage and witnessed by satellite imagery, North Korea is ready to proceed with its 2nd orbital attempt with the powerful new CZ-2D class Chollima-1 SLV, and only 2 months after the failed maiden flight:


Launch window from ８月２４日００００－８月３１日００００


▲ 【緊急情報】衛星ロケット打ち上げ 2023年08月22日 04:50


▲ Drop zone coordinates similar to the previous ones.


▲ Speculative second stage (green) and third stage (yellow) dogleg manoeuvres.

Following this successful next milestone, this will bring North Korea closer to it's stated goal to join the most elite club of lunar soft landing great powers, as the world only 5th nation, following the Soviet Union, the U.S., China and India.

Chollima-1 SLV Second launch



No rain or clouds at Sohae around the time of North Korea's launch (3:50am DPRK Thursday; 18:50 Wednesday UTC).

The rocket failed due to accidental activation of self-destruct system during 3rd stage flight. The error does not concern the reliability of engines and the overall system. NADA to attempt a 3rd launch in October.

Getting to third stage is a big improvement. Question is, was the self destruct system autonomous flight system autonomous flight termination system or a remote system that was accidentally triggered?

Mission rating

☑ 1st stage: 25%
☑ 2nd stage: 50%
☒ 3rd stage: 75%
☒ satellite deployment: 100%

From the Japanese Ministry of Defence's provisional map, the 2nd stage dogleg manoeuver was successfully accomplished for the first time, as a new milestone for NADA.

No indication of the 3rd stage's heading, final orbital inclination angle or debris slash zone.

On the plus side, this time the South Koreans will not be able to retrieve the second stage, third stage and satellite, both lying at several kilometers deep in the abyss of the Pacific Ocean, without a Glomar Explorer pirate ship! A treasure time capsule awaiting future generations of explorers.


▲ Japanese Ministry of Defence's provisional map. 2023

Commentary

Space is hard.

In May, the first stage having performed properly, the mission was rated at a 25% success.

This time, the second stage having performed properly, this mission's rating has increased to a 50% success.

The reported launch time at 3:50am Thursday was too early for benefiting from the direct guidance of General Kim Ju Ae.

Corrective measure can be taken though for the coming Malligyong-1#3 《만리경 1호#3》 (10'000 Li Telescope 1 Unit 2, “万里镜－１”号#3) satellite launch of October.