In retaliation artillery based and Missiles would be fired to the South. Targeted at major population centers. Included amongst those chemical weapons.
Your counter assumption is based on "well people would be in shelter"
The moment a drill is launched the North is alerted. They have agents in the South specifically for such.
Not everyone also follows these kinds of drills it takes a lot of material to prepare for them.
Assuming that the South can share it and it can get North. It not a snap of the fingers here. The North Korean infrastructure collapsed decades ago. It would take 61 billion dollars to pull them into the 21st century.
You claim that the food and water is stolen and dragged off to the capital that is partially true, however the food system is in bad shape due to a number of issues. A couple years back a DPRK very publicly defected after having been shot crossing the Joint security area.
His intestines were infested with parasites. Because of agro isolation the North has been using human waste as fertilizer. This has spread rampant parasites and disease.
Large members of the populace have never seen a doctor and the malnutrition rate is a humanitarian disaster.
Add to that the disasters of worse conditions in the work camps and that 61billion isn't to light Pyongyang like Seoul it's to try and start dealing with the instant medical crisis.
More freedom and TV isn't going to clear that up. It would take years of work to attempt to start dealing with the epidemics contained in that boarder.
I am not even going to guess at the environmental disaster in those boarders either.
This is why that huge figure. The way you have worded it you forget that many of the leadership in the northern army and upper class have blood on there hand blood that They don't want to answer for. In your scheme here you have just double talked made a pro and then walked it back.
Because of the isolation leaders and players of the regime will do everything in the power to prevent that food from getting North to stop those medicines to reign in that freedom to point to that TV has lies. Some of them will be more successful than others and that is your Guerilla war.
The South would need to make huge investments in infrastructure. Electrical, Sewage, roads, communications.
Massive medical programs.
Huge food deliverys.
Provide security.
Housing programs as many are homeless in the DPRK.
And as to leadership... South Korea's President is not the administration you are looking for.
The current president just signed a very very Pro North agreement last year with a ton of language contrary to your perspective.
The South is not looking to invade and U.S. invasion would quickly bring the PRC in.
As the PRC doesn't want US based on their Boarder. The North is a buffer for them.
If the South invaded North on there own the PRC would probably be hands off but if the U.S. takes part all bets are off.
Farther more the North has banked on this rhetoric. It's what allows the Kims to maintain power. For generations the Kims Kids have said the U.S is coming the West is coming. It allows them to ration, isolate, maintain a rain of terror.
Personally the best bet to end North Korea is to let it collapse in its own.
It may end up being a violent affaire or a coup but if the South had to come in and establish order it's better to do so with a willing participant.
Any exposed artillery or missile would be identified by satellites in the days before the attack and taken out in the first strike. If the North has them underground, then they could move them outside but fire finder radar would identify the location of artillery and an airborne A-10 would be directed to take it out.
Known ballistic missile sites would be attacked in the opening strike and Osprey's would already be on the way with special forces to capture those facilities.
Chemical weapons material can't get into homes or bunkers with positive ventilation. If the people stay inside they will be fine unless the rocket hits their home directly. I never said there wouldn't be any SK casualties. What I'm saying is the North has attacked the South repeatedly and the South does nothing in return when they could eliminate the North quite easily.
The North would be alerted? By what, the internet? Radio? If SK conducts practice alerts over and over and over again, something they should be doing anyway, then NK would be used to it. Anyway, there is nothing they can do because they don't have the technology. So what if they launch some of their Mig-21's. They will be shot down by F-35's and never even know the F-35's are there.
Not everyone follows the civilian air raid drills? No, they don't. They have free will. There is no perfect scenario where no one in SK gets even a scratch. What I'm saying is this idea that war with NK would be "the mother of all battles" is incorrect. It would essentially be over in a day.
It would take 61 billion dollars to fix NK? No. NK is stable now. They are supporting themselves now. They don't get any help from anyone now so how would it suddenly take $61 billion? And, once Korea becomes one the US and other countries would begin helping and trading. The sanctions would go away.
The soldier had parasites because the NK children are taught to bring human excrement to school to be used as fertilizer on the crops. Once the leadership changes NK would be able to get fertilizer from SK and other countries.
The population rarely sees doctors and is malnourised? They are but once a new leadership is installed the food would be distributed more evenly, less to Pyongyang and more to rural people. The people in Pyongyang have plenty of food. You can look at video's of westerners eating in restaurants in Pyongyang. And SK could send in some doctors and nurses to help. This isn't about building Rome in one day. It would take time but the NK people would have to do a lot of work themselves but with a better leadership.
The NK military has blood on their hands? I think that SK would have to announce that any NK military generals and admirals who surrender and do not fight would get a reward once the war is over. If they order their men to fight then they will not get the reward and they become a target.
I haven't walked back anything. I never said it would be bloodless or that NK has no capability whatsoever or that Seoul would not be hit at all. You assumed that. What I said was it would be mostly over in a day.
Leaders and players of the regime will do everything to prevent food from getting North? WHAT? Who? China? You're saying China would invade Korea in order to keep Kim Jung Il in power?
The South would make huge investments in infrastructure? They would make no investments in infrastructure. NK is stable now. Food in plentiful in Pyongyang but less in the rural areas. They have some electricity. They have some sewage, some roads, and some communications. NK doesn't have to become SK in a day. This is not about instantaneous modernization. It's about NK slowly catching up with the South over many years.
No massive medical programs. No huge food deliveries. Security would be provided by SK troops for awhile. There are homeless in SK. You're thinking that once the war is over that SK has to instantly rebuild everything to SK standards. That's never happened. It took Japan and Germany many years to rebuild.
SK President is not the leadership I am looking for? So your argument is that you should only do complicated things if everything goes perfect. Then you will never do anything. This is not the future.
The SK President will not attack the North? I know he won't. They don't want the trouble. They will accept having some SK lose their lives to NK every year. I'm just saying this idea that the North is difficult to defeat is completely false.
The PRC doesn't want the US on their border? We can't leave until the country is unified. We're not going anywhere until then.
If SK invaded on their own China might not interfere? Maybe, I don't know. I don't think SK is ready to do it on their own yet. They need to get the 40 F-35's and they really need more of them than that. And about 300 cruise missiles.
It's better to take over a country if the people are willing? It's relative. Do we wait until NK has more missiles and figures out how to put a nuclear weapon on top of them or do we go now with the advantage we have in cruise missiles, stealth bombers, F-35's, A-10's, F-16's, F-15's, and attack helicopters?
