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The Latest on Koreas: US, South Korea halt military drill


U.S. defense officials say America's annual military exercise with South Korea has been halted as tensions with North Korea spike and Pyongyang issues threats of war.

The officials say the U.S. is monitoring the situation, but hasn't taken any other military steps. It was unclear if the exercise would resume.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday declared his front-line troops in a "quasi-state of war" and ordered them to prepare for battle against South Korea in response to an exchange of artillery fire on the border Thursday.

The annual exercise began Monday and was slated to end next Friday.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly.


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Why North Korea's collapse is inevitable


The world is rightly abuzz with the news that this week. The decades-old conflict in the Korean Peninsula remains one of the world's major flashpoints, and North Korea is easily the world's most demonic regime (unless you count ISIS as a regime).

The conflict is largely seen in terms of geopolitics, but it would really make more sense to look at it from the perspective of North Korea's domestic politics. Totalitarian regimes are mostly driven either by ideology or internal politics, not realpolitik as much. Nazi ideology was a better predictor of Germany's actions under the Third Reich than realpolitik considerations (which was the great mistake that both Neville Chamberlain and Joseph Stalin made in their dealings with Hitler).

In this case, North Korea's reigning ideology — Juche, a combination of communism, mercantilism, and racism — doesn't tell us much. What we do know is that Kim Jong Un is probably a weak leader, and is acting to shore up his support.

Even on its best days, the regime teeters on the brink of collapse, simply because most of its people are starving and unhappy. It would take only a tiny push for the straightjacket of terror that keeps the regime together to fall apart, for enough people to become more hungry than scared, and for enough regime thugs and mid-level officers to say, "No, not this time, we won't pull the trigger."

The regime's attempt to black out all outside information has been showing cracks. Cell phones and DVDs (and probably Bibles) are streaming in from the Chinese border, where guards are easily bribed. This contraband is showing an increasing number of North Koreans that another way of life is possible. Various market-driven "reforms," while improving the lot of a few ordinary North Koreans, also highlight the regime's dons for what they are: corrupt kleptocrats, businessmen with guns.

It's against this backdrop that we need to look at the regime's recent actions. Everything suggests that Kim Jong Un feels himself to be in a position of weakness. He was allowed to succeed his father basically because the alternative was civil war and regime collapse. He needs a power base, and that means the military, and especially the more hardcore elements in the military. Hence the purging of Hyon Yong Chol, the grown-up in charge who probably thought the young Kim would be his puppet. Hyon was a military man's military man — formerly in charge of the regime's all-important nuclear program — but he was also close to the Chinese and (as far as we can tell given the murkiness of the regime) an advocate of mostly letting sleeping dogs lie.

Stirring up trouble abroad to shore up the base at home is the oldest trick in the tyrant's book, and there seems to be little alternative explanation to the artillery strikes. North Korea feeds itself two ways: Chinese aid, and nuclear blackmail against the West and South Korea. Purging Hyon alienated the Chinese, so now it's back to Plan B, a replay of Kim Jong Il's breakneck nuclear program in the 1990s that irked the Chinese. He played the Clinton administration for suckers, extorting food aid in exchange for nuclear promises never kept. (You would think a Democratic administration would learn the lesson of listening to a tyrannical regime's nuclear promises — but that's a subject for another day.)

So as we look at what is happening in the Korean Peninsula, the main question shouldn't be about balance of power, but about what we do when the North Korean regime collapses. Because it's certainly not a matter of if, but when.

To say that it will be a humanitarian disaster is an understatement — virtually all of North Korea's inhabitants are malnourished. But it will also be a security disaster, as countless weapons go unaccounted for, and the society devolves into anarchy. And of course, there's the question of nuclear weapons.

China will want to preserve its interests and keep a buffer between its borders and the American presence in South Korea. It will be reluctant to let international aid (an effort that will, by necessity, be led by the U.S.) into the country. At the same time, it will also be extremely reluctant, if not unable, to take on that duty itself.

We know that there have been talks between Chinese, South Korean, and U.S. leaders about contingency plans in the event of a North Korean collapse, but it looks like the talks stayed at the drafting stage. This is not good enough. This is not nearly good enough. History teaches us that governments are inevitably ill-prepared for catastrophic contingencies, even when they can be anticipated (and this one certainly can). It is not an exaggeration to say that it can make the difference between life and death for millions of people whether the international community has its act together when North Korea collapses.

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This is just my opinion:

One thing to remember is that North Korea has been very successful at controlling the media, preventing outside information from entering that could defy the Kim family.

Also, the North Korean people are subject to brainwashing to worship official ideology and they are only exposed to a manipulated media of their government. There’s an absence of an opposition party in North Korea and so the ruling party gets worshipped in every aspect by the media. The North Korean regime can therefore resist opening up to the outside world and keep blocking its people from taking any interest in politics. Together, I believe this is the main reason why the North Korean regime hasn’t collapsed yet.

However, since Kim Jong Un is very young and he is purge many of the older, experienced government officials from the Kim Jong Il era, to replace them with younger officials. However, this could become a trap for him in the near future. Therefore it is my strong conviction that the Kim Jong Un regime won’t last long and it will collapse in the coming years.

The final thing to consider is that North Koreans are starting to think differently about socialism these days and there are a few who even say that the country should publicly reform its economic system.

Although North Koreans may not yet understand the full concept of capitalism, they know how it works according to their daily way of life. And most of all, they know that Kim Jong Un is the ultimate obstacle to a true free market.

My assumption is that in next five years, people will start to feel the need to change their government, and three years after that, Kim Jong Un’s regime will collapse. North Korean society is changing towards a free market economy and many are already living that way of life. People in the north are not stupide of blind. They know how people live in South Korea and they what that for themselves and defiantly for their children. So as far as the new leader does not oppresses the market economy, it won’t really matter who becomes the leader after the fall of Kim Jong Un. How knows, we may see the north and south unified in our lifetime.



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¡Viva el Capitalismo!

North Korea approves ‘final attack’ on South Korea as tensions increase in region


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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared his front-line troops were in a "quasi-state of war" Friday and ordered them to prepare for battle, a day after the most serious confrontation with South Korea in years.

A North Korean military official says a meeting of senior party and defense officials led by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Thursday night and "reviewed and approved the final attack operation."

He gave no details on what kind of military retaliation North Korea would see as appropriate punishment for South Korea's shelling of its territory Thursday.

It’s the latest challenge in the regional feud. South Korea warned Friday that North Korea was likely to launch "provocations" if Seoul did not meet a Saturday deadline to cease propaganda broadcasts.

Kim Yong Chol, director of the general reconnaissance bureau of the North Korean army, on Friday denied South Korean allegations that Pyongyang has been raising tensions on the peninsula.

He denied the North fired anything across the Demilitarized Zone and says South Korea has not offered conclusive evidence where the rocket was launched in the North, or where exactly it landed in the South.


He suggested human error might have been a factor on the South Korean side and says the South's decision to retaliate with its own barrage was dangerous and rash.

Kim says: "Skirmishes can lead to all-out war."

South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo issued a warning at a press conference as a South Korean media outlet reported that Pyongyang appeared to be preparing to test-fire short- and mid-range ballistic missiles.

The report by cited a South Korean government source who said that North Korea seemed to be "weighing the timing of the firing under its strategic intention to increase military tension on the Korean Peninsula to the highest level." The source also said that the apparent preparations for the test had been detected by South Korea's joint radar system, which it shares with the United States.

The North has given Seoul a deadline of 5 p.m. Saturday evening (4 a.m. EDT) to remove border loudspeakers that—after an 11 year lull-- have started broadcasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda. Failure, Pyongyang says, will result in further military action. Seoul has vowed to continue the broadcasts.

Earlier Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared his country to be in a "quasi-state of war" and fully ready for any military operations starting Friday evening, according to a report by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency.

In response, South Korea raised its military readiness to its highest level. Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman Jeon Ha-kyu told a televised news conference that South Korea is ready to repel any additional provocation.


Aug. 21, 2015 - South Korean army soldiers ride on a truck in Yeoncheon, south of the demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday declared his frontline troops in a "quasi-state of war" and ordered them to prepare for battle. (AP)

The rivals are at odds over annual U.S.-South Korean military drills that North Korea calls an invasion rehearsal. Seoul and Washington say the drills are defensive in nature.

U.S. defense officials said Friday that an annual military exercise with South Korea has been halted.

"It's a pre-scheduled pause," Reuters reported an official said on condition of anonymity, adding that it was "common practice" to stop such long exercises temporarily to assess lessons learned.

The officials say the U.S. is monitoring the situation, but hasn't taken any other military steps. It’s unclear if the exercise will resume. The annual exercise began Monday and was slated to end next Friday.

Meanwhile, the North's media report said that "military commanders were urgently dispatched for operations to attack South Korean psychological warfare facilities if the South doesn't stop operating them." South Korea's vice defense minister said Friday this likely meant the North would fire on the 11 sites where South Korea had set up loudspeakers to broadcast propaganda.

The loudspeaker broadcasts began after South Korea accused the North of planting land mines that maimed two South Korean soldiers earlier this month. One of the injured soldiers lost both legs and the other one leg. North Korea denies the South's accusation and demanded video proof.

The North's declaration Friday is similar to its other warlike rhetoric in recent years, including repeated threats to reduce Seoul to a "sea of fire," and the huge numbers of soldiers and military equipment already stationed along the border mean the area is always essentially in a "quasi-state of war." Still, the North's apparent willingness to test Seoul with military strikes and its recent warning of further action raise worries because South Korea has vowed to hit back with overwhelming strength should North Korea attack again.

The North's capital of Pyongyang was mostly business as usual Friday morning, although propaganda vans with loudspeakers broadcast the state media line that the country was in a "quasi-state of war" to people in the streets.

North Korea on Thursday afternoon first fired a single round believed to be from an anti-aircraft gun, which landed near a South Korean border town, Seoul said. About 20 minutes later, three North Korean artillery shells fell on the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone dividing the two Koreas. South Korea responded with dozens of 155-millimeter artillery rounds, according to South Korean defense officials.

North Korea said the South Korean shells landed near four military posts but caused no injuries. No one was reported injured in the South, either, though hundreds were evacuated from frontline towns.

On Friday, about 60 residents in the South Korean town near where the shell fell, Yeoncheon, were still in underground bunkers, Yeoncheon officials said. Yonhap reported that a total of about 2,000 residents along the border were evacuated Thursday.

Escalation is a risk in any military exchange between the Koreas because after two attacks blamed on Pyongyang killed 50 South Koreans in 2010, South Korea's military warned that any future North Korean attack could trigger strikes by South Korea that are three times as large.

The Koreas' mine-strewn DMZ is a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the Korean Peninsula still technically in a state of war. About 28,500 U.S. soldiers are deployed in South Korea to deter potential aggression from North Korea.


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U.S. suspends, then resumes military exercises after N. Korea fires artillery
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Here's why North Korea's decrepit submarine force still freaks out the South


(KCNA/Reuters)
An aging North Korean submarine.

Tensions have been mounting on the Korean peninsula since a North Korean landmine two South Korean soldiers on August 4.

That incident led to spiking tensions between the two countries, culminating in limited artillery exchanges and North Korea's placing of its front-line troops on a .

Tensions relaxed earlier this week when North Korea issued an apology for the land mine after tense negotiations. But there are still concerns over Pyongyang's ultimate end goal during the escalation. Just as Pyongyang was apologizing for the incident, meaning North Korea had deployed some 50 vessels.

The missing subs were cause for alarm in South Korea. "The number is nearly 10 times the normal level … we take the situation very seriously," an unnamed South Korean government spokesman the AFP.

Since the deployment of the submarines earlier this week there have been signs that North Korea may have recalled the vessels. Vice that there are signs that a number of the submarines have returned following deployment, according to a South Korean official.

Kim Min-seok, a defense ministry spokesman for South Korea, likewise said that the submarines are believed to have returned to their pens in North Korea, . But until Seoul can be totally sure of the vessels' location and intent, the country will remain at a heightened alert.

“We’ve said before the disappearance [of North Korean submarines] is a source of concern, and the fact is they are not easy to detect when they are submerged under water,” Kim .

"No one knows whether the North will attack our warships or commercial vessels," the unnamed defense ministry official added.

Pyongyang's deployment of its submarines was likely an attempt to put pressure on South Korea during the landmine attack-related negotiations earlier in the week, Moon Geun-shik, a defense analyst at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, The Chosun Ilbo. Now that the negotiations have concluded, the submarines would likely return to port.


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The location of North Korea's identified naval bases.

Age and obsolescence might also explain why the vessels have returned to port.

The Diplomat that Pyongyang's fleet of rusting diesel submarines is capable of little more than coastal defense and has limited offensive capabilities. North Korea has approximately 70 submarines in its fleet, but 20 are Romeo-class submarines built with 1950s technology. Another 40 are North Korean domestically developed Sang-O-class subs that were specially developed for the insertion of special forces into South Korea, along with mine deployment. The rest of the fleet is thought to be comprised of Yono-class midget submarines with limited range, firepower, and operating depth.

All of these submarines are diesel-electric and extremely old. As such, the submarines can submerge for only a few days at a time — and once they surface, it would easy for South Korea to be able to pinpoint their location. Even with many of the subs still missing, their operational limitations lend credence to the idea that at least a portion of the submarines have returned to their pens in North Korea or are continuing to hide out in secluded coves and inlets throughout the North Korean shoreline.

But despite the submarines' age and relative technological inferiority, the vessels could still cause substantial damage to South Korean vessels and disrupt shipping throughout the peninsula. In 2010, a North Korean submarine the Cheonon, a South Korean naval vessel. The attack killed 46 South Korean sailors.


(KCNA/Reuters)
Kim Jong Un surveys a North Korean submarine.

The sinking of the Cheonon is a stark reminder of the asymmetrical challenges that North Korea's massive — albeit rotting — diesel submarine fleet presents.

They even has some tactical advantages over more advanced submersibles. Diesel submarines are significantly quieter than any other seaborne vessel. Although they cannot operate all that well in the open ocean, North Korea could still plant its submarines along major coastal transport and trade routes without Seoul being able to detect them.

“Picking up the quiet hum of a battery-powered, diesel-electric submarine in busy coastal waters is like trying to identify the sound of a single car engine in the din of a major city,” US Rear Admiral Frank Drennan in March 2015.

For this reason alone, North Korea's submarine fleet remains a major threat — however decrepit it may be.



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navyreco said:

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At least it's potty train.

Taken from the Spanish Reuters website on 14 September 2015

Corea del Norte ha ampliado sus instalaciones nucleares: AIEA

Corea del Norte ha ampliado sus instalaciones nucleares en el último año, entre ellas en la planta de Yongbyon, donde se han observado actividades de construcción y renovación”, denunció hoy la Agencia Internacional de Energía Atómica (OIEA).

“Desde mi último informe, hemos observado actividades de renovación y construcción en varios lugares dentro del complejo nuclear de Yongbyon”, dijo el director general de la AIEA, Yukiya Amano, durante la Junta de Gobernadores del organismo celebrado en Viena.

Indicó que esas actividades “concuerdan” con las declaraciones del régimen de Kim Jong-un sobre “un mayor desarrollo de las capacidades nucleares”.

“Seguiremos observando la evolución, principalmente con imágenes de satélite”, advirtió.

La AIEA teme que la planta, donde ya hay un pequeño rector y uno mayor en construcción, albergue centrifugadoras para el enriquecimiento de uranio.

Corea del Norte realizó ensayos nucleares en 2006, 2009 y 2013 y ha vetado el acceso de los inspectores de la AIEA desde 2009, por lo que apenas existe información de sus actividades atómicas.

En abril pasado, un informe del Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) estadunidense alertó de unas imágenes tomadas por satélite y que confirmarían una reanudación de la actividad en Yongbyon tras la supuesta paralización del reactor.

Reuters

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North Korea has expanded its nuclear facilities: IAEA

North Korea has expanded its nuclear facilities in the past year, including the Yongbyon plant, where there have been construction and renovation activities, denounced the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"Since my last report, we observed renovation and construction activities at various locations within the nuclear complex at Yongbyon," said the director general of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, during the Board of Governors in Vienna.

He said these activities "consistent" with the statements of the regime of Kim Jong-un on "further development of nuclear capabilities."

"We will continue to monitor developments, mainly with satellite images," he said.

The IAEA fears that the plant, where there is already a small rector and one more under construction, shelter centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013 and has vetoed the access of IAEA inspectors since 2009, so there is little information about its atomic activities.

Last April, a report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) warned of a US satellite imagery and confirm a resumption of activity at Yongbyon after the alleged reactor shutdown.

Reuters


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Looks like he's beyond happy..LOL.