China is on the cusp of becoming the world’s biggest public funder of research, according to a forecast by US academics, as stalled growth in government investment in the United States coincides with consistent rises in spending by the Chinese authorities. The analysis — produced exclusively for Nature Index — was the work of researchers from Frontiers in Science and Innovation Policy (FSIP), a programme at the University of California, San Diego, that studies the US research and development (R&D) system and examines the extent to which public and private funding boost technological development.
Government spending on R&D in China increased by 90% to US$133 billion in the decade leading up to 2023,
from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). By contrast, in the United States, spending rose by just 12%, to $155 billion. According to the FSIP’s forecast, China’s public spending on research is likely to overtake that of the United States in the next two to three years. “I think the earliest likely is 2028, plus [or] minus one year,” says Robert Conn, a specialist in research policy and science philanthropy, who co-leads the FSIP. “It could be next year, could be 2029.”