That would just invite a blanket ban on TSMC manufacturing EUV chips using Chinese IP.
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That would just invite a blanket ban on TSMC manufacturing EUV chips using Chinese IP.
Would that be a bad idea?
Perhaps, but for who?
We are not there yet, but it seems to me that the CCP is going to walk in that direction. That is the right thing to do.
China has 1.4 billion people, more than all of Western Humanity combined. More than all of them + Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Russia, Ukraine and all the other smaller states that somehow contribute in even the smallest way to the production of anything valuable to humanity.
Yes, with the appropriate amount of wealth (equal to maybe GDP per capita 50% of American level) China can be completely self-reliant on every, single, stage of ALL high technology.
It will take time, it will take the right decisions, it will take not just extremely hard work but also smart work, and even a little luck. But it CAN be done.
Yes, with the appropriate amount of wealth (equal to maybe GDP per capita 50% of American level) China can be completely self-reliant on every, single, stage of ALL high technology.
It will take time, it will take the right decisions, it will take not just extremely hard work but also smart work, and even a little luck. But it CAN be done.
Let's hope we don't have to see things go that way. But if it does, what about China put 200% tariff on any Qualcomm 5nm chip fabricated by TSMC or even worse totally ban Qualcomm chip in Chinese market? Yes, Chinese won't have top line chip of 5nm in their phone, can Chinese survive with 7nm or 10nm chip? Can TSMC survive without Chinese market?
Trump's plan is clear, to kill Huawei's top chip to make way for Qualcomm. We know this because Qualcomm is allowed to sell 4G chips to Huawei. Who really need 4G chip today? Yet 5G chip is off-limit.
The bottom line is, if US go down to the bottom to kill off any Chinese chip regardless Huawei related or not, then China has no choice but to kill off Qualcomm at least in China. It is "If I die I take everyone with me". Sad to do but I have no choice. This is nuclear solution that US has to think carefully.
As of TSMC, it would be forced to make a choice, either make money from China's market or leave it. So far TSMC and everybody else are trying to avoid, but it depends on US' determination.
mmm... china became the poorest when restricting trade and the richest when participating in world trade... China makes a lot of money by buying us/taiwanese tech and building it into hardware to sell to the world. China is in no position to ban any advance tech being sold into the country until it actually has a competing offering and ability to manufacture it.
China needs that tech, at least it's coming from TW not US
Yet it is also Qualcomm's life. My proposal is a loose-loose solution but just like Korean war when one can not reason for a solution (no cross of 38) what else is left to do?
when that "buying" is not an option, what is left for you to do? Living forever at the bottom of the food chain? You won't have a chance to develop your "competing offering" if you don't fight back now because the "today's American banning" is design to prevent your growing competence to ever happen.
I would rather rephrase that China is in no position to ban if China has no credible means to paralyze its attacker. This is a nuclear option that I would not actively push for, but a last resort when pushed to the corner. Only if China is willing to take that path loud and clear would US and any of its possible followers carefully think what they are going to loose. That's what happened in Korea in 1950s and its implication on US' China policy later on. If this works and I believe so, then China does not need to do it, so called 以战止战 (prepared for war to avoid a war).
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