News on China's scientific and technological development.

Petrolicious88 said:

I feel sorry for all the Chinese people that rushed into SMIC stocks. The stock will prob tank this week.

This is a heavy blow. SMIC was on the verge of 7nm chips

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Hi Petrolicious88,

All in due time, had been lurking around for 20 years as a PLA watcher, all I can say is CHINA NEVER DISAPPOINT. Really cant wait for 2021, all our discussion here will soon be realized. And we should count our self lucky that here in SDF we had members like WTAN, SKYWATCHER and others who knew more about SEMI CONDUCTOR are willing to share with us info, policy and development happening inside China.

This is a heavy blow. SMIC was on the verge of 7nm chips

from WTAN

Its very likely that Huawei would team up with SMIC on the 7nm Chips. Maybe a joint venture or license production of SMIC N+1/2 Process.
It is very likely that SMIC will be sanctioned in the future, so SMIC really has nothing to lose.
It will gain a big customer in Huawei.

Under the 14th 5Year Plan 2021 - 2025, China intends to help Foundries develop 5 - 7nm Chip Processes using Domestic manufacturing equipment. Looks like Huawei, SMIC and other FABs are on target to develop 7nm Chips in the next few years.

Check out this article here

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China with its 14th Five-year Plan (2021-2025) will assist its domestic foundries in the development of advanced 7nm and FD-SOI fabrication process technologies, according to Digitimes Research.

mderfox said:

If SMIC get banned probably they will lead bankruptcy. Their existing fab design many material and equipment have Americans input. In fab business not easy to switch supplier. Find suppliers doesn't have Americans input is almost impossible. Let's take example silicone wafer, its dominate by JP,US,SK and TW. All is this country (and break away province) is pro US. Many chemical processing also dominate by JP. their tech is tailor for western tech.

Its totally different with Huawei plan its seem possible to make breakthrough. I read somewhere Ren said they will go back to basic. Much easier to build up industrial chain without caught on patent dispute. Bear in mind huawei good at camera(optic). Just reverse the process they will get cpu. They also good in building system. Doesn't mean huawei enter equipment maker business, but they can contribute in development equipment.

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It is a very simple business solution for SMIC.

All they have to do is buy the entire line of Chinese made equipment, and run it in the same warehouse as their current fabrication line.

Everything that comes out of that warehouse sold by SMIC to Huawei will be totally legit in China.

horse said:

It is a very simple business solution for SMIC.

All they have to do is buy the entire line of Chinese made equipment, and run it in the same warehouse as their current fabrication line.

Everything that comes out of that warehouse sold by SMIC to Huawei will be totally legit in China.

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Its not that easy. Equipment need maintenance, if original spare part contain US input, sales spare part will be banned. US doesn't need evidence, what they need is "suspected".

For current news SMIC will likely get sanction. Practically billion worth equipment is scraps. I don't know if they can withstand the losses. With stock price keep falling, investor will pull out money, there are potential they will file bankruptcy.

Im not optimistic about SMIC. If im not mistaken their major customer is Qualcomm. Huawei is just small part of their revenue. What they facing much worst than what Huawei facing. At least for Huawei they can switch to software and IoT they still can withstand until locally made FAB is available and at the same times US still granted license for intel and AMD and probably Qualcomm. While SMIC doesn't have much choice. What facing SMIC is same with ZTE, waiting to get slaughter.

mderfox said:

For current news SMIC will likely get sanction. Practically billion worth equipment is scraps. I don't know if they can withstand the losses. With stock price keep falling, investor will pull out money, there are potential they will file bankruptcy.

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SMIC is like boeing or intel to the US. It will not go bankrupt, they will be bailed out and supported until they can become self suffcient.

mderfox said:

Its not that easy. Equipment need maintenance, if original spare part contain US input, sales spare part will be banned. US doesn't need evidence, what they need is "suspected".

For current news SMIC will likely get sanction. Practically billion worth equipment is scraps. I don't know if they can withstand the losses. With stock price keep falling, investor will pull out money, there are potential they will file bankruptcy.

Im not optimistic about SMIC. If im not mistaken their major customer is Qualcomm. Huawei is just small part of their revenue. What they facing much worst than what Huawei facing. At least for Huawei they can switch to software and IoT they still can withstand until locally made FAB is available and at the same times US still granted license for intel and AMD and probably Qualcomm. While SMIC doesn't have much choice. What facing SMIC is same with ZTE, waiting to get slaughter.

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You know that if you understand the equipment you can design and create your own parts to swap out for maintenance right?

I'm very happy with the plight of SMIC. Necessity is the mother of all inventions. I'd rather have Chinese foundries spend money on Chinese equipment and R&D rather than on US suppliers (who use the profits to further improve their R&D).

This is not me trying to find a silver lining. It's the reality. Sometimes, you need your enemy to show you your weaknesses.

Let's hope that China gets fully independent by 2030.

daifo said:

SMIC is like boeing or intel to the US. It will not go bankrupt, they will be bailed out and supported until they can become self suffcient.

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I don't think so, the way SMIC work is closed to western tech. Ironically they requested license from US to supply Huawei at the end of the day they get sanction.

Better to form new company and poach SMIC employee. My take is many good talented engineer will exit SMIC as sanction hit.

mderfox said:

I don't think so, the way SMIC work is closed to western tech. Ironically they requested license from US to supply Huawei at the end of the day they get sanction.

Better to form new company and poach SMIC employee. My take is many good talented engineer will exit SMIC as sanction hit.

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You don’t just build effective organizations over night. Trying to reinvent organizations as a vindictive dig at loyalties is how you slow down, rather than speed up, your innovative capacity.

latenlazy said:

You know that if you understand the equipment you can design and create your own parts to swap out for maintenance right?

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Some not critical can easily design and swap out. For critical part not that easy. Like source of lights, software support and etc. Any problem with this link will freeze entire chain. That's why SMIC stop supplying Huawei for fear US sanction.

This sanction by US is a calculated move. On one hand, they sanctioned SMIC, yet on another hand, I think they will allow Qualcomm to supply chips to Huawei. The purpose is to prevent Chinese technology companies from cooperating together to make its own Chip breakthrough, and yet supply them with inferior Qualcomm chips (compare to TSMC). This is a divide and conquer strategy. Huawei must be careful in its next move.