Brookings Institution's view on China's lithography prospects are bleak:
" China has virtually no lithography experience or industry. Any Chinese firm trying to develop EUV lithography would have to start from scratch. It would have to close the gap with ASML’s billions of dollars, decades of experience, and the accumulated experience and tacit knowledge of their tens of thousands of employees. And it would have to succeed where experienced, billion-dollar companies failed [note: Probably referring to Nikon]. There is little chance a Chinese company will make an EUV lithography machine in the foreseeable future.
...the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan should impose strict multilateral export controls on the manufacturing equipment—including EUV lithography machines—needed to produce advanced chips. These three countries monopolize chip manufacturing equipment chokepoints with technical barriers to entry similar to that posed by EUV lithography. Targeted export controls will maintain China’s dependence on imports for advanced chips.
In this respect, EUV machines are even more than technological marvels: they offer important avenues for progress. By advancing computer chip technology, they advance frontiers in science and engineering and increase global prosperity. Keeping these machines in the hands of democracies could help sustain this march of progress and prosperity for decades to come. "
If memory serves haven’t the brookings institute had bleak outlook, at one point or another, about the following...
China economic development, said multiple times about the imminent collapse
China jet engine development, said have to rely on Russians, will not be able to develop indigenous engines for a long time
China advanced electronics development
China space program, said will not have manned space flight without co-op opportunity with ISS
China missile tech development, said ASBM and hypersonic not going to happen
China high speed rail development
China ship building industry
China military and civilian drone development
China aircraft carrier program, said they will never develop one I think, don’t remember the details.
Three gorges dam, will collapses multiple times
China food production capabilities, in conjunction with pollution problem said China will have problems feeding itself
China pollution problems
China renewable energy sector, now the biggest in the world with the most KWH
China internet and software related development
I don’t know if all are from brookings but definitely from one US think tank or another and I don’t have the time to chase down all the reports and what was said.
I am sure they have a point but the thing with tech is that once the principle is understood, it only take time, money, motivation and a bit of trail and error to reinvent the wheel and necessity is the mother of all inventions, so I have my eyes trained on carbon nanotubes tbh